MatchWiz Plays Optimizer
Home Runs · Tuesday, July 7, 2026

MIL @ STL Home Runs matchups · Tuesday, July 7, 2026

MIL
MIL
Milwaukee Brewers
vs
7:45 PM EDT
STL
St. Louis Cardinals
STL
Busch StadiumElevation 460 ftCenter Field 400 ft

MIL MIL Lineup

Projected lineup — order not announcedEstimated from MIL's last game. Batting order is a key driver, so use discretion — this updates automatically once the official lineup posts (~2h before first pitch).
?
Probable pitcher not announcedMatchups for this lineup are shown neutrally for now and will sharpen automatically once the opposing starter is posted (usually a day or two before first pitch).
Order · HitterMatchup

Context

Expected PAs4.65
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.7×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.034

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.02051 PA
Season.025243 PA
Last 2 Years.040934 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 2vs CIN0
Jul 3@ AZ0
Jul 4@ AZ1
Jul 5@ AZ0
Jul 6@ STL0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.028

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.017240 PA
Season.0291543 PA
Last 2 Years.0293832 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact

wOBA.321
Hard-Hit %33%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.153

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Christian Yelich's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.55
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.043

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.04863 PA
Season.052250 PA
Last 2 Years.0401147 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 2vs CIN0
Jul 3@ AZ0
Jul 4@ AZ1
Jul 5@ AZ0
Jul 6@ STL0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.025

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.018223 PA
Season.0251554 PA
Last 2 Years.0254591 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact

wOBA.354
Hard-Hit %38%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.226

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Jackson Chourio's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.45
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form🔥 9-game hitting streak

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.026

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.01565 PA
Season.031383 PA
Last 2 Years.0241320 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 2vs CIN0
Jul 3@ AZ0
Jul 4@ AZ0
Jul 5@ AZ0
Jul 6@ STL0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.028

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.017240 PA
Season.0291543 PA
Last 2 Years.0293832 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact

wOBA.335
Hard-Hit %37%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.146

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Brice Turang's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.35
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.3×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.030

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.05555 PA
Season.025360 PA
Last 2 Years.0301314 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 1vs CIN0
Jul 2vs CIN0
Jul 3@ AZ0
Jul 4@ AZ0
Jul 6@ STL0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.025

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.018223 PA
Season.0251554 PA
Last 2 Years.0254591 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact

wOBA.342
Hard-Hit %37%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.149

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

William Contreras's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.25
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.2×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.043

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.05456 PA
Season.051314 PA
Last 2 Years.041674 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 2vs CIN0
Jul 3@ AZ0
Jul 4@ AZ0
Jul 5@ AZ1
Jul 6@ STL0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.028

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.017240 PA
Season.0291543 PA
Last 2 Years.0293832 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact

wOBA.344
Hard-Hit %39%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.215

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Jake Bauers's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.1
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2.1×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.031

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.06546 PA
Season.029280 PA
Last 2 Years.028569 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 2vs CIN1
Jul 3@ AZ1
Jul 4@ AZ0
Jul 5@ AZ0
Jul 6@ STL0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.028

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.017240 PA
Season.0291543 PA
Last 2 Years.0293832 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact

wOBA.348
Hard-Hit %38%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.152

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Garrett Mitchell's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.014

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00040 PA
Season.010289 PA
Last 2 Years.0141110 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 2vs CIN0
Jul 3@ AZ0
Jul 4@ AZ0
Jul 5@ AZ0
Jul 6@ STL0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.028

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.017240 PA
Season.0291543 PA
Last 2 Years.0293832 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact

wOBA.306
Hard-Hit %24%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.044

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Sal Frelick's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.9
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.9×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.015

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00042 PA
Season.00060 PA
Last 2 Years.00060 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 1vs CIN0
Jul 2vs CIN0
Jul 3@ AZ0
Jul 4@ AZ0
Jul 6@ STL0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.025

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.018223 PA
Season.0251554 PA
Last 2 Years.0254591 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact

wOBA.286
Hard-Hit %30%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.053

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Cooper Pratt's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.8
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.8×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.020

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00031 PA
Season.013235 PA
Last 2 Years.021561 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 30vs CIN0
Jul 2vs CIN0
Jul 3@ AZ0
Jul 5@ AZ0
Jul 6@ STL0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.028

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.017240 PA
Season.0291543 PA
Last 2 Years.0293832 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral 0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact

wOBA.288
Hard-Hit %27%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.059

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

David Hamilton's full player page →

STL STL Lineup

Projected lineup — order not announcedEstimated from STL's last game. Batting order is a key driver, so use discretion — this updates automatically once the official lineup posts (~2h before first pitch).
?
Probable pitcher not announcedMatchups for this lineup are shown neutrally for now and will sharpen automatically once the opposing starter is posted (usually a day or two before first pitch).
Order · HitterMatchup

Context

Expected PAs4.65
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.7×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.035

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.04961 PA
Season.034379 PA
Last 2 Years.034379 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 2@ ATL0
Jul 3@ CHC0
Jul 4@ CHC1
Jul 5@ CHC0
Jul 6vs MIL0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.022

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.022134 PA
Season.022946 PA
Last 2 Years.0222130 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +1%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact

wOBA.344
Hard-Hit %36%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.177

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

JJ Wetherholt's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.55
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.031

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.01855 PA
Season.025392 PA
Last 2 Years.034911 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 2@ ATL0
Jul 3@ CHC0
Jul 4@ CHC0
Jul 5@ CHC0
Jul 6vs MIL0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.027

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.029209 PA
Season.0271147 PA
Last 2 Years.0262848 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact

wOBA.356
Hard-Hit %35%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.161

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Iván Herrera's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.45
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.041

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.04050 PA
Season.055364 PA
Last 2 Years.036871 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 2@ ATL1
Jul 3@ CHC0
Jul 4@ CHC0
Jul 5@ CHC1
Jul 6vs MIL0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.027

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.029209 PA
Season.0271147 PA
Last 2 Years.0262848 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact

wOBA.334
Hard-Hit %40%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.215

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Jordan Walker's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.35
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.3×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.044

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.05917 PA
Season.05852 PA
Last 2 Years.05852 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 30@ ATL1
Jul 1@ ATL0
Jul 3@ CHC0
Jul 5@ CHC0
Jul 6vs MIL0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.027

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.029209 PA
Season.0271147 PA
Last 2 Years.0262848 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral 0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact

wOBA.347
Hard-Hit %45%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.263

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Nelson Velázquez's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.25
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.2×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.021

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.02934 PA
Season.020149 PA
Last 2 Years.016247 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 2@ ATL0
Jul 3@ CHC0
Jul 4@ CHC0
Jul 5@ CHC0
Jul 6vs MIL0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.027

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.029209 PA
Season.0271147 PA
Last 2 Years.0262848 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact

wOBA.316
Hard-Hit %29%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.081

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

José Fermín's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.1
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2.1×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.020

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.04347 PA
Season.012331 PA
Last 2 Years.0201198 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 2@ ATL0
Jul 3@ CHC1
Jul 4@ CHC0
Jul 5@ CHC0
Jul 6vs MIL0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.027

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.029209 PA
Season.0271147 PA
Last 2 Years.0262848 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact

wOBA.304
Hard-Hit %29%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.072

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Masyn Winn's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.033

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.06844 PA
Season.034233 PA
Last 2 Years.030298 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 2@ ATL1
Jul 3@ CHC1
Jul 4@ CHC0
Jul 5@ CHC0
Jul 6vs MIL0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.022

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.022134 PA
Season.022946 PA
Last 2 Years.0222130 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact

wOBA.305
Hard-Hit %32%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.117

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Nathan Church's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.9
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.9×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.022

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00037 PA
Season.01568 PA
Last 2 Years.01568 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 30@ ATL0
Jul 1@ ATL0
Jul 2@ ATL0
Jul 3@ CHC0
Jul 6vs MIL0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.027

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.029209 PA
Season.0271147 PA
Last 2 Years.0262848 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact

wOBA.289
Hard-Hit %36%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.088

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Blaze Jordan's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.8
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.8×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.029

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00013 PA
Season.026153 PA
Last 2 Years.029679 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 28vs MIA0
Jul 2@ ATL0
Jul 3@ CHC0
Jul 4@ CHC0
Jul 6vs MIL0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.027

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.029209 PA
Season.0271147 PA
Last 2 Years.0262848 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact

wOBA.281
Hard-Hit %29%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.082

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Pedro Pagés's full player page →