Last scored matchup
Nathan isn't on today's slate. He was last scored 11 days ago, away at Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday, September 27, 2026, where he landed on hits (36.6/100), singles (36.1/100), doubles (28.2/100). This page refreshes with new projections as soon as he's back in a lineup.
Recent form
Nathan is 7-for-34 (.206) over his last 10 games, in line with his .254 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.
What kind of hitter he is
Nathan has 10 home runs and 29 extra-base hits in 422 at-bats this season. That profile is why he grades better on the total-bases and home-run boards than his batting average alone would suggest — those boards reward damage, not just contact. Park and weather matter more for a hitter like him too, and both feed the score.
He's a left-handed bat
Nathan hits from the left side, and that's the first thing the model looks at. Left-handed hitters see right-handed pitching most nights, which is the favourable side — so a lefty bat's baseline is set against righties, and drawing a left-handed starter is a genuine downgrade rather than a rounding error. When you see his score fall on a day he's still in the lineup, an opposing lefty is usually why. Handedness also shapes the park read: pull-side geometry matters more for a left-handed swing than the raw park factor suggests.
Floor and ceiling
Nathan has recorded at least one hit in 77 of 125 games he's batted in — 62% — with 26 multi-hit games among them. That's about average — most regulars land somewhere near it.
Home and away
Nathan is hitting .255 at home (50-for-196) and .252 on the road (57-for-226) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.
Against Milwaukee Brewers
Nathan is 0-for-8 (.000) against Milwaukee Brewers in our log, over 3 games. Worth knowing, worth not over-reading. 8 at-bats against one club is a tiny sample, and the model treats it as a minor input next to what that pitching staff actually allows to his handedness. Batter-versus-pitcher history is the most quoted number in baseball and one of the least predictive.
His best game in the log
Nathan's biggest night was Saturday, September 19, 2026 against WSH — 2-for-5. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.
How our calls on Nathan have graded
In the 7 games where we ranked Nathan a top-20 hitter matchup, he recorded a hit 6 times — 86%. That's a thin sample and we'd treat it as such. Every one of those calls was graded against the real box score, misses included.
Where he lands across our boards
Nathan was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: hits graded 36.6/100 while triples came in at 7.1/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.
How the model reads him
Take the name off Nathan and the model still produces the same number, because it's scoring the matchup rather than the player. His splits against this handedness, what the opposing starter and bullpen actually allow, how many plate appearances he's likely to get, the park, the weather, how he's swinging lately. All of it lands on a 0–100 scale against everyone else playing today. We don't publish how it's weighted. We publish every result it produces.
What we'd flag
Three caveats worth carrying. Not every player gets a posted line — book coverage runs to about 87% for confirmed starters, so a blank line is the market's silence, not ours. Lineup changes land late enough to strand a projection published hours earlier. And judging any of this on a single night is meaningless; the model is tuned on hundreds of settled outcomes.