MatchWiz

José Fermín

José Fermín — hitting .248 in our graded log with 4 home runs. The model's read on his matchups, and where it's been right.

Last scored board
52
Singles · @ MIL · 2026-09-27
Our calls on him · hits
86%
1+ hit in 6/7 top-20 calls
Games graded
107
this season, box-score final
José Fermín
LFBats RThrows RSt. Louis Cardinals
Singles52/100proj 0.6#46Hits38.5/100proj 0.9#89Doubles32.4/100proj 0.2#70RBIs26.1/100proj 0.4#118Walks26.1/100proj 0.3#76Total Bases24.1/100proj 1.4#100H+R+RBI23.7/100proj 1.5#116Fantasy Points19.9/100proj 5.8#125Stolen Bases13.8/100proj 0.1#67Runs10.5/100proj 0.4#141Home Runs9.5/100proj 0.1#135Triples2.7/100proj 0#134

Last scored matchup

José isn't on today's slate. He was last scored 11 days ago, away at Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday, September 27, 2026, where he landed on singles (52/100), hits (38.5/100), doubles (32.4/100). This page refreshes with new projections as soon as he's back in a lineup.

He's swinging a hot bat

José is 8-for-25 (.320) over his last 10 games — well clear of his .248 season mark. Our model does lean on recent form, but it weights it against the matchup rather than chasing it: a hot bat facing a tough arm in a bad park still grades as a tough spot. Streaks like this one also end without warning, which is why the score moves on the matchup and not on the streak.

What kind of hitter he is

José puts the ball in play — 44 strikeouts in 306 at-bats, about 14% of the time. Contact hitters carry their value on the hits board rather than the power boards, and they're less matchup-dependent than sluggers: a strikeout arm hurts him less than it hurts a hitter who sells out for damage. He's also run — 8 stolen bases — which shows up on the steals board.

He's a right-handed bat

José hits from the right side, so the platoon math runs the other way from a lefty's. Right-handed bats face right-handed pitching most of the time, meaning his baseline is built against the harder side and a left-handed starter is the upgrade. That's why a righty's score can jump on a day nothing else about the matchup changed. The model weighs his rates against the specific handedness he's drawing rather than a blended season number, which is where a lot of the day-to-day movement in his score comes from.

Floor and ceiling

José has recorded at least one hit in 57 of 106 games he's batted in — 54% — with 17 multi-hit games among them. That's a boom-or-bust profile. He'll carry a game outright and then go quiet for three, so his hits-board score tends to sit below hitters with worse power and better contact.

Home and away

José is hitting .255 at home (40-for-157) and .242 on the road (36-for-149) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.

Against Milwaukee Brewers

José is 0-for-7 (.000) against Milwaukee Brewers in our log, over 3 games. Worth knowing, worth not over-reading. 7 at-bats against one club is a tiny sample, and the model treats it as a minor input next to what that pitching staff actually allows to his handedness. Batter-versus-pitcher history is the most quoted number in baseball and one of the least predictive.

His best game in the log

José's biggest night was Saturday, September 19, 2026 against WSH — 3-for-5 with 1 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

How our calls on José have graded

In the 7 games where we ranked José a top-20 hitter matchup, he recorded a hit 6 times — 86%. That's a thin sample and we'd treat it as such. Every one of those calls was graded against the real box score, misses included.

Where he lands across our boards

José was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: singles graded 52/100 while triples came in at 2.7/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

José gets scored the same way a backup infielder does — same inputs, same scale, no thumb on it. What he's done against arms of this handedness, what this particular pitcher and bullpen give up, his likely plate appearances, the ballpark, the conditions, his recent form. The weighting behind those is ours and gets re-tuned weekly against what actually happened. The output is public and graded, which is the only claim worth making.

What we'd flag

Read this page knowing what it can't do. It can't show you a line no book posted — coverage peaks around 87% for confirmed starters. It can't see a lineup change that happens after the projection publishes. And it can't tell you anything useful from one game, because the model is only measurable across a season-sized sample.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Sunday, September 27@ MIL40000
Saturday, September 26@ MIL10000
Friday, September 25@ MIL20000
Thursday, September 24@ PIT10000
Wednesday, September 23@ PIT42010
Sunday, September 20vs WSH32010
Saturday, September 19vs WSH53001
Wednesday, September 16vs SF10001
Tuesday, September 15vs SF21010
Saturday, September 12vs CWS20001
Friday, September 11vs CWS51000
Wednesday, September 9@ SF31001

José Fermín — FAQ

Is José Fermín playing today?

José Fermín isn't in a confirmed lineup on the current slate, and was last scored on Sunday, September 27, 2026. This page updates with fresh projections as soon as he's back in one.

How have MatchWiz's calls on José Fermín graded?

In the 7 games where our model ranked José a top-20 hitter matchup, he got at least one hit 6 times — 86%. Every call is graded against the real result at the line the market offered, wins and losses both.

How has José Fermín been hitting lately?

José is 8-for-25 (.320) over his last 10 games, against .248 on the season across 306 at-bats in our log, with 4 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does José Fermín appear on?

José was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — singles, hits, doubles, rbis, walks. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are José Fermín's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).