MatchWiz

José Fermín

José Fermín — today's matchup, what the model projects, and how our calls on him have graded. Top board: doubles at 52.9/100.

Today's top board
52.9
Doubles · @ PHI
Our calls on him · hits
100%
record builds as games settle
Games graded
82
this season, box-score final
José Fermín
LFBats RThrows RSt. Louis Cardinals
Doubles52.9/100proj 0.2#25Walks41.2/100proj 0.4#141Hits41/100proj 1#158Total Bases35.5/100proj 1.5#196Singles33.4/100proj 0.6#146Fantasy Points24.3/100proj 6#206H+R+RBI21.4/100proj 1.5#223Home Runs15.2/100proj 0.1#189Runs15/100proj 0.4#266RBIs14.9/100proj 0.4#236Stolen Bases10/100proj 0.1#103Triples4.5/100proj 0#242

Today's matchup

José draws Philadelphia Phillies on the road today. He shows up on 12 boards — doubles (52.9/100, #25), walks (41.2/100, #141), hits (41/100, #158), total bases (35.5/100, #196). We've got him at 0.2 on the doubles board. Open any board row for the full breakdown of what's driving it.

Recent form

José is 8-for-29 (.276) over his last 10 games, in line with his .248 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.

What kind of hitter he is

José puts the ball in play — 29 strikeouts in 230 at-bats, about 13% of the time. Contact hitters carry their value on the hits board rather than the power boards, and they're less matchup-dependent than sluggers: a strikeout arm hurts him less than it hurts a hitter who sells out for damage. He's also run — 6 stolen bases — which shows up on the steals board.

He's a right-handed bat

José hits from the right side, so the platoon math runs the other way from a lefty's. Right-handed bats face right-handed pitching most of the time, meaning his baseline is built against the harder side and a left-handed starter is the upgrade. That's why a righty's score can jump on a day nothing else about the matchup changed. The model weighs his rates against the specific handedness he's drawing rather than a blended season number, which is where a lot of the day-to-day movement in his score comes from.

Floor and ceiling

José has recorded at least one hit in 43 of 81 games he's batted in — 53% — with 13 multi-hit games among them. That's a boom-or-bust profile. He'll carry a game outright and then go quiet for three, so his hits-board score tends to sit below hitters with worse power and better contact.

Home and away

José is hitting .252 at home (29-for-115) and .243 on the road (28-for-115) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.

Against Philadelphia Phillies

José is 5-for-21 (.238) against Philadelphia Phillies in our log, over 6 games. Worth knowing, worth not over-reading. 21 at-bats against one club is a tiny sample, and the model treats it as a minor input next to what that pitching staff actually allows to his handedness. Batter-versus-pitcher history is the most quoted number in baseball and one of the least predictive.

No graded record on him yet

We haven't ranked José a top-20 hitter matchup often enough this season to have a record worth publishing — 1 time so far. He's appeared in 82 graded games, so the log below is real; there just isn't a track record on our calls to show. It'll build here if the matchups start landing his way.

Where he lands across our boards

José was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: doubles graded 52.9/100 while triples came in at 4.5/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

José gets scored the same way a backup infielder does — same inputs, same scale, no thumb on it. What he's done against arms of this handedness, what this particular pitcher and bullpen give up, his likely plate appearances, the ballpark, the conditions, his recent form. The weighting behind those is ours and gets re-tuned weekly against what actually happened. The output is public and graded, which is the only claim worth making.

What we'd flag

Read this page knowing what it can't do. It can't show you a line no book posted — coverage peaks around 87% for confirmed starters. It can't see a lineup change that happens after the projection publishes. And it can't tell you anything useful from one game, because the model is only measurable across a season-sized sample. For José specifically, we don't have a meaningful graded record on him yet.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Sunday, August 23@ PHI41111
Saturday, August 22@ PHI40001
Friday, August 21@ PHI52001
Thursday, August 20@ 22012
Wednesday, August 19@ CIN21000
Tuesday, August 18@ CIN31001
Monday, August 17@ 10000
Monday, August 17@ CIN30000
Friday, August 14@ CHC21000
Wednesday, August 12vs PHI30000
Tuesday, August 11vs PHI31000
Monday, August 10vs PHI21001

José Fermín — FAQ

Who is José Fermín facing today?

José Fermín is facing Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday, August 23, 2026. His strongest matchup grades 52.9/100 on our doubles board, ranked #25.

What is José Fermín's projection today?

We project José for 0.2 on the doubles board. That's the model's number for this specific matchup — the opposing arm, the park, the weather, and his expected playing time all feed it. It's graded against the real box score tonight.

How has José Fermín been hitting lately?

José is 8-for-29 (.276) over his last 10 games, against .248 on the season across 230 at-bats in our log, with 4 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does José Fermín appear on?

José was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — doubles, walks, hits, total bases, singles. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are José Fermín's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).