MLB moneyline & run totals — Friday, June 12, 2026
A win probability, a projected game total, and each club's projected runs for every matchup — all set beside the market and graded in the open. It grades out near break-even on the moneyline (52%, n=236) and game total (50%, n=155), but it's beating the book on team totals — 53% at -3% ROI over 336 graded bets. Moneylines and game totals are efficient, so we treat those as transparency. Team totals are a softer market, and that's where the model is finding a real edge — as that sample holds, team-total leans are the first thing we'll surface as plays. Until then, all the numbers are here for you to use as you see fit.
MIAMiami Marlins✓47%+113fair+121mktModel lean+3.3%
PITPittsburgh Pirates53%-113fair-142mkt-3.3%
SEASeattle Mariners✓44%+129fair-145mkt-13.2%
WSHWashington Nationals56%-129fair+123mktModel lean+13.2%
SDSan Diego Padres45%+120fair+111mkt-0.2%
BALBaltimore Orioles✓55%-120fair-130mktModel lean+0.2%
DETDetroit Tigers51%-102fair+105mktModel lean+3.7%
CLECleveland Guardians✓49%+102fair-123mkt-3.7%
TEXTexas Rangers49%+103fair+110mktModel lean+3.6%
BOSBoston Red Sox✓51%-103fair-130mkt-3.6%
AZArizona Diamondbacks✓48%+106fair-103mkt-0.7%
CINCincinnati Reds52%-106fair-110mktModel lean+0.7%
ATLAtlanta Braves56%-129fair+105mktModel lean+9.5%
NYMNew York Mets✓44%+129fair-125mkt-9.5%
NYYNew York Yankees57%-134fair-105mktModel lean+8.2%
TORToronto Blue Jays✓43%+134fair-114mkt-8.2%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers43%+134fair-151mkt-15.1%
CWSChicago White Sox✓57%-134fair+128mktModel lean+15.1%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies47%+115fair+205mktModel lean+15.1%
MILMilwaukee Brewers✓53%-115fair-250mkt-15.1%
HOUHouston Astros✓51%-106fair-115mktModel lean+0.0%
KCKansas City Royals49%+106fair-103mkt-0.0%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals51%-106fair+116mktModel lean+7.0%
MINMinnesota Twins✓49%+106fair-137mkt-7.0%
TBTampa Bay Rays45%+123fair-170mkt-15.6%
LAALos Angeles Angels✓55%-123fair+142mktModel lean+15.6%
COLColorado Rockies38%+160fair+170mktModel lean+2.8%
ATHAthletics✓62%-160fair-200mkt-2.8%
CHCChicago Cubs✓47%+111fair+100mkt-0.8%
SFSan Francisco Giants53%-111fair-116mktModel lean+0.8%Win% / Fair = our model's win probability (and that as fair, no-vig odds). Mkt = consensus market line. Edge = our number minus the market's. The gold side is the one we favor more than the market — informational, not a play. Not betting advice.
We grade all three markets against the book, in the open — this is the whole point of shipping the model. The moneyline and game total are efficient and grade out near break-even; the team totals are softer, and that's where the model is actually beating the market.
On the moneyline and game total, a ~50% win rate and ~0% ROI is the honest, expected result — those markets are efficient, priced off the same run estimates we model. The team totals are a thinner, softer market, and the model is clearing the vig there on an early sample. We're posting it all transparently; as the team-total sample grows and holds, those become the first edges we surface as plays.