MLB moneyline & run totals — Saturday, June 13, 2026
A win probability, a projected game total, and each club's projected runs for every matchup — all set beside the market and graded in the open. It grades out near break-even on the moneyline (52%, n=236) and game total (53%, n=178), but it's beating the book on team totals — 58% at +6% ROI over 285 graded bets. Moneylines and game totals are efficient, so we treat those as transparency. Team totals are a softer market, and that's where the model is finding a real edge — as that sample holds, team-total leans are the first thing we'll surface as plays. Until then, all the numbers are here for you to use as you see fit.
STLSt. Louis Cardinals✓54%-118fair-111mktModel lean+3.4%
MINMinnesota Twins46%+118fair-105mkt-3.4%
NYYNew York Yankees✓56%-126fair-112mktModel lean+4.9%
TORToronto Blue Jays44%+126fair-104mkt-4.9%
SDSan Diego Padres✓45%+120fair+104mkt-1.6%
BALBaltimore Orioles55%-120fair-123mktModel lean+1.6%
SEASeattle Mariners44%+125fair+100mkt-3.4%
WSHWashington Nationals✓56%-125fair-120mktModel lean+3.4%
MIAMiami Marlins45%+123fair+110mkt-1.0%
PITPittsburgh Pirates✓55%-123fair-130mktModel lean+1.0%
AZArizona Diamondbacks50%-102fair-146mkt-6.7%
CINCincinnati Reds✓50%+102fair+125mktModel lean+6.7%
DETDetroit Tigers46%+118fair-140mkt-10.4%
CLECleveland Guardians✓54%-118fair+120mktModel lean+10.4%
TEXTexas Rangers48%+107fair+100mktModel lean+0.2%
BOSBoston Red Sox✓52%-107fair-118mkt-0.2%
ATLAtlanta Braves✓54%-119fair+100mktModel lean+6.3%
NYMNew York Mets46%+119fair-119mkt-6.3%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers✓47%+111fair-205mkt-17.1%
CWSChicago White Sox53%-111fair+170mktModel lean+17.1%
HOUHouston Astros✓53%-114fair+107mktModel lean+6.7%
KCKansas City Royals47%+114fair-125mkt-6.7%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies✓40%+150fair+128mkt-2.4%
MILMilwaukee Brewers60%-150fair-148mktModel lean+2.4%
CHCChicago Cubs✓48%+110fair-125mkt-5.7%
SFSan Francisco Giants52%-110fair+106mktModel lean+5.7%
COLColorado Rockies39%+155fair+147mktModel lean+0.4%
ATHAthletics✓61%-155fair-175mkt-0.4%
TBTampa Bay Rays47%+113fair-115mkt-4.2%
LAALos Angeles Angels✓53%-113fair-104mktModel lean+4.2%Win% / Fair = our model's win probability (and that as fair, no-vig odds). Mkt = consensus market line. Edge = our number minus the market's. The gold side is the one we favor more than the market — informational, not a play. Not betting advice.
We grade all three markets against the book, in the open — this is the whole point of shipping the model. The moneyline and game total are efficient and grade out near break-even; the team totals are softer, and that's where the model is actually beating the market.
On the moneyline and game total, a ~50% win rate and ~0% ROI is the honest, expected result — those markets are efficient, priced off the same run estimates we model. The team totals are a thinner, softer market, and the model is clearing the vig there on an early sample. We're posting it all transparently; as the team-total sample grows and holds, those become the first edges we surface as plays.