MLB moneyline & run totals — Saturday, June 27, 2026
A win probability, a projected game total, and each club's projected runs for every matchup — all set beside the market and graded in the open. It grades out near break-even on the moneyline (52%, n=236) and game total (53%, n=178), but it's beating the book on team totals — 58% at +6% ROI over 285 graded bets. Moneylines and game totals are efficient, so we treat those as transparency. Team totals are a softer market, and that's where the model is finding a real edge — as that sample holds, team-total leans are the first thing we'll surface as plays. Until then, all the numbers are here for you to use as you see fit.
HOUHouston Astros✓40%+147fair+115mkt-4.3%
DETDetroit Tigers60%-147fair-135mktModel lean+4.3%
NYYNew York Yankees56%-126fair-115mktModel lean+4.2%
BOSBoston Red Sox✓44%+126fair-101mkt-4.2%
TEXTexas Rangers✓36%+179fair+110mkt-10.3%
TORToronto Blue Jays64%-179fair-126mktModel lean+10.3%
CINCincinnati Reds✓64%-181fair+112mktModel lean+18.9%
PITPittsburgh Pirates36%+181fair-130mkt-18.9%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies58%-140fair+113mktModel lean+12.9%
NYMNew York Mets✓42%+140fair-130mkt-12.9%
KCKansas City Royals44%+127fair+120mktModel lean+0.6%
CWSChicago White Sox✓56%-127fair-145mkt-0.6%
AZArizona Diamondbacks41%+144fair+159mktModel lean+3.6%
TBTampa Bay Rays✓59%-144fair-183mkt-3.6%
WSHWashington Nationals✓50%+100fair+163mktModel lean+13.3%
BALBaltimore Orioles50%-100fair-192mkt-13.3%
SEASeattle Mariners49%+104fair-105mkt-0.4%
CLECleveland Guardians✓51%-104fair-110mktModel lean+0.4%
COLColorado Rockies✓36%+180fair+122mkt-7.6%
MINMinnesota Twins64%-180fair-143mktModel lean+7.6%
CHCChicago Cubs✓24%+309fair+130mkt-17.3%
MILMilwaukee Brewers76%-309fair-155mktModel lean+17.3%
MIAMiami Marlins✓42%+140fair+115mkt-3.1%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals58%-140fair-135mktModel lean+3.1%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers✓61%-159fair-145mktModel lean+4.7%
SDSan Diego Padres39%+159fair+122mkt-4.7%
ATLAtlanta Braves39%+155fair-154mkt-19.1%
SFSan Francisco Giants✓61%-155fair+130mktModel lean+19.1%
ATHAthletics41%+145fair-103mkt-7.9%
LAALos Angeles Angels✓59%-145fair-115mktModel lean+7.9%Win% / Fair = our model's win probability (and that as fair, no-vig odds). Mkt = consensus market line. Edge = our number minus the market's. The gold side is the one we favor more than the market — informational, not a play. Not betting advice.
We grade all three markets against the book, in the open — this is the whole point of shipping the model. The moneyline and game total are efficient and grade out near break-even; the team totals are softer, and that's where the model is actually beating the market.
On the moneyline and game total, a ~50% win rate and ~0% ROI is the honest, expected result — those markets are efficient, priced off the same run estimates we model. The team totals are a thinner, softer market, and the model is clearing the vig there on an early sample. We're posting it all transparently; as the team-total sample grows and holds, those become the first edges we surface as plays.