MLB moneyline & run totals — Friday, June 26, 2026
A win probability, a projected game total, and each club's projected runs for every matchup — all set beside the market and graded in the open. It grades out near break-even on the moneyline (52%, n=236) and game total (50%, n=155), but it's beating the book on team totals — 53% at -3% ROI over 336 graded bets. Moneylines and game totals are efficient, so we treat those as transparency. Team totals are a softer market, and that's where the model is finding a real edge — as that sample holds, team-total leans are the first thing we'll surface as plays. Until then, all the numbers are here for you to use as you see fit.
HOUHouston Astros47%+113fair+103mkt-0.5%
DETDetroit Tigers✓53%-113fair-121mktModel lean+0.5%
CINCincinnati Reds✓42%+139fair-115mkt-9.5%
PITPittsburgh Pirates58%-139fair-103mktModel lean+9.5%
WSHWashington Nationals57%-131fair-100mktModel lean+8.8%
BALBaltimore Orioles✓43%+131fair-118mkt-8.8%
TEXTexas Rangers✓48%+107fair+150mktModel lean+9.9%
TORToronto Blue Jays52%-107fair-180mkt-9.9%
AZArizona Diamondbacks30%+234fair+143mkt-9.5%
TBTampa Bay Rays✓70%-234fair-172mktModel lean+9.5%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies✓65%-186fair+116mktModel lean+20.5%
NYMNew York Mets35%+186fair-136mkt-20.5%
NYYNew York Yankees57%-131fair-125mktModel lean+3.5%
BOSBoston Red Sox✓43%+131fair+105mkt-3.5%
SEASeattle Mariners✓40%+150fair-145mkt-17.1%
CLECleveland Guardians60%-150fair+125mktModel lean+17.1%
KCKansas City Royals37%+168fair+121mkt-6.1%
CWSChicago White Sox✓63%-168fair-143mktModel lean+6.1%
CHCChicago Cubs20%+388fair+205mkt-11.0%
MILMilwaukee Brewers✓80%-388fair-248mktModel lean+11.0%
COLColorado Rockies47%+112fair+120mktModel lean+3.6%
MINMinnesota Twins✓53%-112fair-143mkt-3.6%
MIAMiami Marlins✓58%-138fair-110mktModel lean+7.9%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals42%+138fair-109mkt-7.9%
ATHAthletics✓34%+198fair-100mkt-14.8%
LAALos Angeles Angels66%-198fair-115mktModel lean+14.8%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers45%+123fair-199mkt-18.9%
SDSan Diego Padres✓55%-123fair+165mktModel lean+18.9%
ATLAtlanta Braves✓67%-206fair+113mktModel lean+22.3%
SFSan Francisco Giants33%+206fair-134mkt-22.3%Win% / Fair = our model's win probability (and that as fair, no-vig odds). Mkt = consensus market line. Edge = our number minus the market's. The gold side is the one we favor more than the market — informational, not a play. Not betting advice.
We grade all three markets against the book, in the open — this is the whole point of shipping the model. The moneyline and game total are efficient and grade out near break-even; the team totals are softer, and that's where the model is actually beating the market.
On the moneyline and game total, a ~50% win rate and ~0% ROI is the honest, expected result — those markets are efficient, priced off the same run estimates we model. The team totals are a thinner, softer market, and the model is clearing the vig there on an early sample. We're posting it all transparently; as the team-total sample grows and holds, those become the first edges we surface as plays.