‹ Earned Runs · Thursday, May 21, 2026
PIT @ STL Earned Runs matchups · Thursday, May 21, 2026
PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates
6–2
Final
STL
St. Louis Cardinals
◆ Busch StadiumElevation 460 ftCenter Field 400 ft☀ 67°F Partly CloudyWind 8 mph, L To R
Braxton Ashcraft · RHP
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+120
BOLBetOnline-152—
DKDraftKings-141+106
FANFanatics-165+115
We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
STL lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1JJ Wetherholt (L)11.7%3.0 PA
2Iván Herrera (R)11.7%3.0 PA
3Alec Burleson (L)11.7%3.0 PA
4Jordan Walker (R)11.7%3.0 PA
5Nolan Gorman (L)11.7%3.0 PA
6Masyn Winn (R)11.7%2.9 PA
7José Fermín (R)11.7%2.0 PA
8Pedro Pagés (R)11.7%2.0 PA
9Yohel Pozo (R)11.7%2.0 PA
Dustin May · RHP
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+122—
BOVBovada+115-155
DKDraftKings+125-166
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
PIT lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Oneil Cruz (L)11.7%3.0 PA
2Brandon Lowe (L)11.7%3.0 PA
3Bryan Reynolds (L)11.7%3.0 PA
4Spencer Horwitz (L)11.7%3.0 PA
5Konnor Griffin (R)11.7%3.0 PA
6Marcell Ozuna (R)11.7%2.3 PA
7Jake Mangum (L)11.7%2.0 PA
8Jared Triolo (R)11.7%2.0 PA
9Henry Davis (R)11.7%2.0 PA