Best MLB earned runs matchups — Thursday, May 21, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, May 21, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.5 BF
Expected batters faced9.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ben Rice (L)11.7%1.6
2. Aaron Judge (R)11.7%1.0
3. Cody Bellinger (L)11.7%1.0
4. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)11.7%1.0
5. Paul Goldschmidt (R)11.7%1.0
6. Spencer Jones (L)11.7%1.0
7. Ryan McMahon (L)11.7%1.0
8. Anthony Volpe (R)11.7%1.0
9. J.C. Escarra (L)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+150-210
We project 1.1 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload14.1 BF
Expected batters faced14.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)11.7%2.0
2. Corbin Carroll (L)11.7%2.0
3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)11.7%2.0
4. Nolan Arenado (R)11.7%2.0
5. Ildemaro Vargas (L)11.7%2.0
6. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)11.7%1.1
7. Gabriel Moreno (R)11.7%1.0
8. Jose Fernandez (R)11.7%1.0
9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
BOLBetOnline+110—
BOVBovada+120-160
We project 1.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.3 BF
Expected batters faced20.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)11.7%3.0
2. Curtis Mead (R)11.7%3.0
3. Jorbit Vivas (L)11.7%2.3
4. CJ Abrams (L)11.7%2.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)11.7%2.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)11.7%2.0
7. Luis García Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
8. José Tena (L)11.7%2.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+125-185
BOLBetOnline+132—
DKDraftKings+127-169
FANFanatics+125-180
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.2 BF
Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Xavier Edwards (L)11.7%3.0
2. Liam Hicks (L)11.7%3.0
3. Otto Lopez (R)11.7%3.0
4. Kyle Stowers (L)11.7%2.2
5. Jakob Marsee (L)11.7%2.0
6. Christopher Morel (R)11.7%2.0
7. Heriberto Hernández (R)11.7%2.0
8. Pete Fairbanks (R)11.7%2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+125-185
BOLBetOnline+139—
DKDraftKings+128-170
FANFanatics+125-180
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.4 BF
Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)11.7%3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
3. Daulton Varsho (L)11.7%3.0
4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)11.7%2.4
5. Ernie Clement (R)11.7%2.0
6. Andrés Giménez (L)11.7%2.0
7. Myles Straw (R)11.7%2.0
8. Brandon Valenzuela (R)11.7%2.0
9. Yohendrick Piñango (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-175+120
BOLBetOnline-159—
DKDraftKings-163+122
FANFanatics-170+120
We project 2.4 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.6 BF
Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Daniel Schneemann (L)11.7%3.0
2. José Ramírez (L)11.7%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)11.7%3.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)11.7%2.6
5. Travis Bazzana (L)11.7%2.0
6. Angel Martínez (L)11.7%2.0
7. Steven Kwan (L)11.7%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)11.7%2.0
9. Brayan Rocchio (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+120
BOLBetOnline-147—
BOVBovada-150+110
DKDraftKings-150+113
FANFanatics-155+110
We project 2.4 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.8 BF
Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Matt Vierling (R)11.7%3.0
2. Kevin McGonigle (L)11.7%3.0
3. Dillon Dingler (R)11.7%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)11.7%2.8
5. Gage Workman (L)11.7%2.0
6. Spencer Torkelson (R)11.7%2.0
7. Wenceel Pérez (R)11.7%2.0
8. Colt Keith (L)11.7%2.0
9. Zach McKinstry (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-175+125
BOLBetOnline-164—
DKDraftKings-164+123
We project 2.5 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.1 BF
Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)11.7%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)11.7%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)11.7%3.0
4. Mark Vientos (R)11.7%3.0
5. Brett Baty (L)11.7%2.1
6. Marcus Semien (R)11.7%2.0
7. A.J. Ewing (L)11.7%2.0
8. MJ Melendez (L)11.7%2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-217—
DKDraftKings-172+129
We project 2.5 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Oneil Cruz (L)11.7%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)11.7%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)11.7%3.0
4. Spencer Horwitz (L)11.7%3.0
5. Konnor Griffin (R)11.7%3.0
6. Marcell Ozuna (R)11.7%2.3
7. Jake Mangum (L)11.7%2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R)11.7%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+122—
BOVBovada+115-155
DKDraftKings+125-166
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)11.7%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)11.7%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)11.7%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)11.7%3.0
5. Nolan Gorman (L)11.7%3.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)11.7%2.9
7. José Fermín (R)11.7%2.0
8. Pedro Pagés (R)11.7%2.0
9. Yohel Pozo (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+120
BOLBetOnline-152—
DKDraftKings-141+106
FANFanatics-165+115
We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Alika Williams (R)11.7%3.0
2. Shea Langeliers (R)11.7%3.0
3. Nick Kurtz (L)11.7%3.0
4. Brent Rooker (R)11.7%3.0
5. Tyler Soderstrom (L)11.7%3.0
6. Zack Gelof (R)11.7%2.9
7. Henry Bolte (R)11.7%2.0
8. Darell Hernaiz (R)11.7%2.0
9. Lawrence Butler (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
BOLBetOnline+118—
DKDraftKings+121-161
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.7 BF
Expected batters faced24.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)11.7%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)11.7%3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L)11.7%3.0
4. Vaughn Grissom (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jo Adell (R)11.7%3.0
6. Josh Lowe (L)11.7%3.0
7. Jorge Soler (R)11.7%2.7
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)11.7%2.0
9. Adam Frazier (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-125
BOLBetOnline-106—
DKDraftKings-116-114
FANFanatics-115-125
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.7 BF
Expected batters faced24.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Willi Castro (R)11.7%3.0
2. Tyler Freeman (R)11.7%3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R)11.7%3.0
4. Ezequiel Tovar (R)11.7%3.0
5. Kyle Karros (R)11.7%3.0
6. Jake McCarthy (L)11.7%3.0
7. Mickey Moniak (L)11.7%2.7
8. Troy Johnston (L)11.7%2.0
9. TJ Rumfield (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-110
BOLBetOnline+100—
DKDraftKings-114-116
FANFanatics-130-110
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.5 BF
Expected batters faced25.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Eli White (R)11.7%3.0
2. Michael Harris II (L)11.7%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)11.7%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (L)11.7%3.0
5. Dominic Smith (L)11.7%3.0
6. Austin Riley (R)11.7%3.0
7. Mauricio Dubón (R)11.7%3.0
8. Ha-Seong Kim (R)11.7%2.5
9. Chadwick Tromp (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135-105
BOLBetOnline-122—
DKDraftKings-112-118
We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
10 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Sandy AlcantaraP
MIAvsATL· proj #14
6ERFinal
2
Dustin MayP
STLvsPIT· proj #9
4ERFinal
3
Spencer StriderP
ATL@MIA· proj #4
3ERFinal
4
Casey MizeP
DETvsCLE· proj #6
2ERFinal
T4
Cade CavalliP
WSHvsNYM· proj #8
2ERFinal
T4
José SorianoP
LAAvsATH· proj #11
2ERFinal
T4
Luis SeverinoP
ATH@LAA· proj #12
2ERFinal
8
David PetersonP
NYM@WSH· proj #3
1ERFinal
T8
Carlos RodónP
NYYvsTOR· proj #5
1ERFinal
T8
Braxton AshcraftP
PIT@STL· proj #10
1ERFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
2/540%
season 52%-12 pts-4% ROI
Top 10
5/1050%
season 52%-2 pts-6% ROI
Top 20
6/1443%
season building
Top 50
6/1443%
season building
Full slate
6/1443%
season 49%-6 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Thursday, May 21, 2026
Braydon Fisher (TOR) is the top earned runs spot on the Thursday, May 21, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.1 ER, with Zach Agnos (COL) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Braydon Fisher
Braydon Fisher (TOR) tops the Thursday, May 21, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.1 ER vs NYY. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Zach Agnos (COL) (71) — about 1.6 ER vs AZ.
David Peterson (NYM) (33) — about 2.3 ER vs WSH.
Spencer Strider (ATL) (27) — about 2.4 ER vs MIA.
Carlos Rodón (NYY) (26) — about 2.4 ER vs TOR.
Casey Mize (DET) (24) — about 2.4 ER vs CLE.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 1.4 ER. Braydon Fisher finished with 0. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Thursday, May 21, 2026)?
Braydon Fisher (TOR) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.1 ER against NYY.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Thursday, May 21, 2026: Braydon Fisher (~1.1 ER), Zach Agnos (~1.6 ER), David Peterson (~2.3 ER), Spencer Strider (~2.4 ER), Carlos Rodón (~2.4 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
