HOU @ CHC Earned Runs matchups · Friday, May 22, 2026

HOU

Houston Astros

4–2

Final

CHC

Chicago Cubs

◆ Wrigley FieldElevation 595 ftCenter Field 400 ft☀ 60°F SunnyWind 12 mph, In From CF

Spencer Arrighetti · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%

vs RHB10.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.6 BF

Expected batters faced24.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.8 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-145

BOLBetOnline+115—

DKDraftKings+129-172

FANFanatics+100-140

We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

CHC lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA

1Nico Hoerner (R)11.7%3.0 PA

2Michael Busch (L)11.7%3.0 PA

3Alex Bregman (R)11.7%3.0 PA

4Ian Happ (L)11.7%3.0 PA

5Seiya Suzuki (R)11.7%3.0 PA

6Moisés Ballesteros (L)11.7%3.0 PA

7Carson Kelly (R)11.7%2.6 PA

8Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)11.7%2.0 PA

9Dansby Swanson (R)11.7%2.0 PA

Jameson Taillon · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%

vs RHB10.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline-139—

DKDraftKings-172+129

We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

HOU lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA

1Jeremy Peña (R)11.7%3.0 PA

2Isaac Paredes (R)11.7%3.0 PA

3Yordan Alvarez (L)11.7%3.0 PA

4Christian Walker (R)11.7%3.0 PA

5Jake Meyers (R)11.7%3.0 PA

6Nick Allen (R)11.7%2.5 PA

7Cam Smith (R)11.7%2.0 PA

8Zach Cole (L)11.7%2.0 PA

9Christian Vázquez (R)11.7%2.0 PA