Best MLB earned runs matchups — Friday, May 22, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Friday, May 22, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.0 BF
Expected batters faced9.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)11.7%1.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)11.7%1.0
3. Colt Keith (L)11.7%1.0
4. Riley Greene (L)11.7%1.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)11.7%1.0
6. Wenceel Pérez (R)11.7%1.0
7. Zach McKinstry (L)11.7%1.0
8. Gage Workman (L)11.7%1.0
9. Hao-Yu Lee (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.4 BF
Expected batters faced9.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)11.7%1.4
2. Mauricio Dubón (R)11.7%1.0
3. Matt Olson (L)11.7%1.0
4. Ozzie Albies (R)11.7%1.0
5. Michael Harris II (L)11.7%1.0
6. Eli White (R)11.7%1.0
7. Dominic Smith (L)11.7%1.0
8. Ha-Seong Kim (R)11.7%1.0
9. Chadwick Tromp (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload10.9 BF
Expected batters faced10.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Xavier Edwards (L)11.7%2.0
2. Liam Hicks (L)11.7%1.9
3. Otto Lopez (R)11.7%1.0
4. Kyle Stowers (L)11.7%1.0
5. Jakob Marsee (L)11.7%1.0
6. Esteury Ruiz (R)11.7%1.0
7. Graham Pauley (L)11.7%1.0
8. Joe Mack (L)11.7%1.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135-105
BOLBetOnline-132—
FANFanatics-120-120
We project 1.2 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.0 BF
Expected batters faced20.0
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)11.7%3.0
2. Mookie Betts (R)11.7%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)11.7%2.0
4. Kyle Tucker (L)11.7%2.0
5. Andy Pages (R)11.7%2.0
6. Santiago Espinal (R)11.7%2.0
7. Teoscar Hernández (R)11.7%2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L)11.7%2.0
9. Miguel Rojas (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
BOLBetOnline+124—
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.9 BF
Expected batters faced20.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Colby Thomas (R)11.7%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)11.7%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)11.7%2.9
4. Brent Rooker (R)11.7%2.0
5. Tyler Soderstrom (L)11.7%2.0
6. Zack Gelof (R)11.7%2.0
7. Henry Bolte (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jeff McNeil (L)11.7%2.0
9. Lawrence Butler (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-145
BOLBetOnline+110—
DKDraftKings+109-144
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.1 BF
Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)11.7%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)11.7%3.0
3. Adley Rutschman (L)11.7%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)11.7%2.1
5. Samuel Basallo (L)11.7%2.0
6. Leody Taveras (L)11.7%2.0
7. Tyler O'Neill (R)11.7%2.0
8. Blaze Alexander (R)11.7%2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
BOLBetOnline+115—
DKDraftKings+111-147
FANFanatics+105-150
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.4 BF
Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jarren Duran (L)11.7%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)11.7%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)11.7%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)11.7%2.4
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)11.7%2.0
6. Nick Sogard (R)11.7%2.0
7. Marcelo Mayer (L)11.7%2.0
8. Carlos Narváez (R)11.7%2.0
9. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-165
BOLBetOnline+132—
DKDraftKings+127-169
FANFanatics+115-165
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.7 BF
Expected batters faced21.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)11.7%3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
3. Daulton Varsho (L)11.7%3.0
4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)11.7%2.7
5. Yohendrick Piñango (L)11.7%2.0
6. Ernie Clement (R)11.7%2.0
7. Myles Straw (R)11.7%2.0
8. Brandon Valenzuela (L)11.7%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
BOLBetOnline+100—
DKDraftKings-105-127
FANFanatics-110-130
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.4 BF
Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)11.7%3.0
2. Corbin Carroll (L)11.7%3.0
3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)11.7%3.0
4. Nolan Arenado (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ildemaro Vargas (L)11.7%2.4
6. Jose Fernandez (R)11.7%2.0
7. Gabriel Moreno (R)11.7%2.0
8. Adrian Del Castillo (L)11.7%2.0
9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
BOLBetOnline+115—
DKDraftKings+114-151
FANFanatics+105-150
We project 2.5 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.4 BF
Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)11.7%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)11.7%3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L)11.7%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jo Adell (R)11.7%2.4
6. Jose Siri (R)11.7%2.0
7. Oswald Peraza (R)11.7%2.0
8. Sebastián Rivero (R)11.7%2.0
9. Donovan Walton (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-145+100
BOLBetOnline-133—
DKDraftKings-145+110
We project 2.5 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts1
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Andrew McCutchen (R)11.7%3.0
2. Josh Jung (R)11.7%3.0
3. Brandon Nimmo (L)11.7%3.0
4. Ezequiel Duran (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jake Burger (R)11.7%2.5
6. Alejandro Osuna (L)11.7%2.0
7. Justin Foscue (R)11.7%2.0
8. Sam Haggerty (L)11.7%2.0
9. Danny Jansen (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
BOLBetOnline+110—
DKDraftKings+110-147
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.9 BF
Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)11.7%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)11.7%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)11.7%3.0
4. Mark Vientos (R)11.7%3.0
5. Tyrone Taylor (R)11.7%2.9
6. Marcus Semien (R)11.7%2.0
7. Vidal Bruján (L)11.7%2.0
8. Nick Morabito (R)11.7%2.0
9. MJ Melendez (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-145
BOLBetOnline+117—
BOVBovada+120-160
DKDraftKings+112-149
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Chandler Simpson (L)11.7%3.0
2. Junior Caminero (R)11.7%3.0
3. Jonathan Aranda (L)11.7%3.0
4. Carson Williams (R)11.7%3.0
5. Richie Palacios (L)11.7%3.0
6. Ryan Vilade (R)11.7%2.0
7. Cedric Mullins (L)11.7%2.0
8. Nick Fortes (R)11.7%2.0
9. Taylor Walls (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
BOLBetOnline-141—
BOVBovada-155+115
DKDraftKings-133+100
FANFanatics-155+110
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Byron Buxton (R)11.7%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (R)11.7%3.0
3. Austin Martin (R)11.7%3.0
4. James Outman (L)11.7%3.0
5. Trevor Larnach (L)11.7%3.0
6. Ryan Kreidler (R)11.7%2.0
7. Kody Clemens (L)11.7%2.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R)11.7%2.0
9. Alex Jackson (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140-105
BOLBetOnline-130—
DKDraftKings-135+102
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
2. Miguel Andujar (R)11.7%3.0
3. Gavin Sheets (L)11.7%3.0
4. Manny Machado (R)11.7%3.0
5. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.7%3.0
6. Ramón Laureano (R)11.7%2.3
7. Sung-Mun Song (L)11.7%2.0
8. Bryce Johnson (R)11.7%2.0
9. Rodolfo Durán (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-145
BOLBetOnline+110—
DKDraftKings+106-141
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)11.7%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)11.7%3.0
3. Randy Arozarena (R)11.7%3.0
4. Dominic Canzone (L)11.7%3.0
5. Patrick Wisdom (R)11.7%3.0
6. Cole Young (L)11.7%2.3
7. Mitch Garver (R)11.7%2.0
8. Luke Raley (L)11.7%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
BOLBetOnline+117—
DKDraftKings+118-157
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Maikel Garcia (R)11.7%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)11.7%3.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)11.7%3.0
5. Carter Jensen (L)11.7%3.0
6. Jac Caglianone (L)11.7%2.3
7. Isaac Collins (L)11.7%2.0
8. Michael Massey (L)11.7%2.0
9. Kyle Isbel (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
BOLBetOnline+115—
DKDraftKings+105-139
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)11.7%3.0
2. Hunter Goodman (R)11.7%3.0
3. Kyle Karros (R)11.7%3.0
4. Tyler Freeman (R)11.7%3.0
5. Troy Johnston (L)11.7%3.0
6. Willi Castro (L)11.7%2.5
7. Ezequiel Tovar (R)11.7%2.0
8. Sterlin Thompson (L)11.7%2.0
9. Chad Stevens (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-175+125
BOLBetOnline-164—
We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)11.7%3.0
2. Isaac Paredes (R)11.7%3.0
3. Yordan Alvarez (L)11.7%3.0
4. Christian Walker (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jake Meyers (R)11.7%3.0
6. Nick Allen (R)11.7%2.5
7. Cam Smith (R)11.7%2.0
8. Zach Cole (L)11.7%2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-139—
DKDraftKings-172+129
We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Oneil Cruz (L)11.7%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)11.7%3.0
3. Nick Gonzales (R)11.7%3.0
4. Bryan Reynolds (L)11.7%3.0
5. Konnor Griffin (R)11.7%3.0
6. Jared Triolo (R)11.7%2.6
7. Endy Rodríguez (L)11.7%2.0
8. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)11.7%2.0
9. Jake Mangum (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-160
BOLBetOnline+122—
DKDraftKings+124-165
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)11.7%3.0
2. Aaron Judge (R)11.7%3.0
3. Ben Rice (L)11.7%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)11.7%3.0
5. Paul Goldschmidt (R)11.7%3.0
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)11.7%2.7
7. José Caballero (R)11.7%2.0
8. Ryan McMahon (L)11.7%2.0
9. Austin Wells (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
BOLBetOnline+104—
DKDraftKings+113-150
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Willy Adames (R)11.7%3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L)11.7%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)11.7%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)11.7%3.0
5. Matt Chapman (R)11.7%3.0
6. Bryce Eldridge (L)11.7%2.9
7. Jesus Rodriguez (R)11.7%2.0
8. Victor Bericoto (R)11.7%2.0
9. Harrison Bader (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+115
BOLBetOnline-154—
DKDraftKings-165+124
We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.2 BF
Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)11.7%3.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L)11.7%3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)11.7%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)11.7%3.0
5. Chase Meidroth (R)11.7%3.0
6. Andrew Benintendi (L)11.7%3.0
7. Edgar Quero (L)11.7%2.2
8. Tristan Peters (L)11.7%2.0
9. Derek Hill (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
BOLBetOnline+115—
FANFanatics+105-150
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.6 BF
Expected batters faced24.6
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Nico Hoerner (R)11.7%3.0
2. Michael Busch (L)11.7%3.0
3. Alex Bregman (R)11.7%3.0
4. Ian Happ (L)11.7%3.0
5. Seiya Suzuki (R)11.7%3.0
6. Moisés Ballesteros (L)11.7%3.0
7. Carson Kelly (R)11.7%2.6
8. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)11.7%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-145
BOLBetOnline+115—
DKDraftKings+129-172
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.6 BF
Expected batters faced24.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)11.7%3.0
2. Andrés Chaparro (R)11.7%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)11.7%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)11.7%3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)11.7%3.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)11.7%3.0
7. Paxton Schultz (L)11.7%2.6
8. Drew Millas (L)11.7%2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-165
BOLBetOnline+122—
BOVBovada+125-165
DKDraftKings+119-159
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.7 BF
Expected batters faced24.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jackson Chourio (R)11.7%3.0
2. Brice Turang (L)11.7%3.0
3. William Contreras (R)11.7%3.0
4. Christian Yelich (L)11.7%3.0
5. Andrew Vaughn (R)11.7%3.0
6. Blake Perkins (R)11.7%3.0
7. Luis Rengifo (R)11.7%2.7
8. Sal Frelick (L)11.7%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-118
BOLBetOnline-109—
DKDraftKings-108-122
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.9 BF
Expected batters faced24.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)11.7%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)11.7%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)11.7%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)11.7%3.0
5. Brandon Marsh (L)11.7%3.0
6. Adolis García (R)11.7%3.0
7. Bryson Stott (L)11.7%2.9
8. J.T. Realmuto (R)11.7%2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-160
BOLBetOnline+115—
DKDraftKings+105-139
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload26.5 BF
Expected batters faced26.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Angel Martínez (R)11.7%3.0
2. José Ramírez (R)11.7%3.0
3. Kyle Manzardo (L)11.7%3.0
4. Chase DeLauter (L)11.7%3.0
5. Travis Bazzana (L)11.7%3.0
6. Brayan Rocchio (R)11.7%3.0
7. Steven Kwan (L)11.7%3.0
8. Austin Hedges (R)11.7%3.0
9. Petey Halpin (L)11.7%2.5
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-120
BOLBetOnline-110—
DKDraftKings-115-116
We project 3.0 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
19 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Trevor McDonaldP
SFvsCWS· proj #23
7ERFinal
2
Jacob deGromP
TEX@LAA· proj #10
6ERFinal
3
Connor PrielippP
MIN@BOS· proj #7
5ERFinal
T3
Justin WrobleskiP
LAD@MIL· proj #26
5ERFinal
5
Grayson RodriguezP
LAAvsTEX· proj #11
4ERFinal
T5
Jeffrey SpringsP
ATH@SD· proj #15
4ERFinal
T5
Jameson TaillonP
CHCvsHOU· proj #19
4ERFinal
T5
Davis MartinP
CWS@SF· proj #22
4ERFinal
9
Walker BuehlerP
SDvsATH· proj #5
3ERFinal
T9
Jack FlahertyP
DET@BAL· proj #6
3ERFinal
T9
Payton TolleP
BOSvsMIN· proj #14
3ERFinal
12
Tomoyuki SuganoP
COL@AZ· proj #9
2ERFinal
13
Keegan AkinP
BALvsDET· proj #1
1ERFinal
T13
Tobias MyersP
NYM@MIA· proj #3
1ERFinal
T13
Eury PérezP
MIAvsNYM· proj #12
1ERFinal
T13
Michael SorokaP
AZvsCOL· proj #18
1ERFinal
T13
Kevin GausmanP
TORvsPIT· proj #20
1ERFinal
T13
Nick MartinezP
TB@NYY· proj #21
1ERFinal
T13
Bryce ElderP
ATLvsWSH· proj #25
1ERFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
2/367%
season 52%+15 pts-4% ROI
Top 10
5/863%
season 52%+11 pts-6% ROI
Top 20
9/1850%
season building
Top 50
12/2646%
season building
Full slate
12/2646%
season 49%-3 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Friday, May 22, 2026
Keegan Akin (BAL) is the top earned runs spot on the Friday, May 22, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER, with Richard Lovelady (WSH) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Keegan Akin
Keegan Akin (BAL) tops the Friday, May 22, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER vs DET. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Richard Lovelady (WSH) (98) — about 1.1 ER vs ATL.
Tobias Myers (NYM) (89) — about 1.2 ER vs MIA.
Logan Henderson (MIL) (37) — about 2.3 ER vs LAD.
Walker Buehler (SD) (32) — about 2.4 ER vs ATH.
Jack Flaherty (DET) (31) — about 2.4 ER vs BAL.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 2.1 ER. Keegan Akin finished with 1. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Friday, May 22, 2026)?
Keegan Akin (BAL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER against DET.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Friday, May 22, 2026: Keegan Akin (~1.0 ER), Richard Lovelady (~1.1 ER), Tobias Myers (~1.2 ER), Logan Henderson (~2.3 ER), Walker Buehler (~2.4 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
