‹ Earned Runs · Wednesday, May 27, 2026
TB @ BAL Earned Runs matchups · Wednesday, May 27, 2026
TB
Tampa Bay Rays
2–11
Final
BAL
Baltimore Orioles
◆ Oriole Park at Camden YardsElevation 33 ftCenter Field 410 ft☀ 80°F Partly CloudyWind 2 mph, Out To RF
Steven Matz · LHP
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.4 BF
Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-145
BOVBovada+115-155
DKDraftKings-101-131
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
BAL lineup · K rate vs LHPExp PA
1Jackson Holliday (L)11.7%3.0 PA
2Weston Wilson (R)11.7%3.0 PA
3Adley Rutschman (R)11.7%3.0 PA
4Pete Alonso (R)11.7%2.4 PA
5Coby Mayo (R)11.7%2.0 PA
6Leody Taveras (R)11.7%2.0 PA
7Colton Cowser (L)11.7%2.0 PA
8Blaze Alexander (R)11.7%2.0 PA
9Jeremiah Jackson (R)11.7%2.0 PA
Trey Gibson · RHP
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.0 BF
Expected batters faced20.0
From recent starts2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
BOVBovada+115-155
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
TB lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Chandler Simpson (L)11.7%3.0 PA
2Oliver Dunn (L)11.7%3.0 PA
3Victor Mesa Jr. (L)11.7%2.0 PA
4Nick Fortes (R)11.7%2.0 PA
5Richie Palacios (L)11.7%2.0 PA
6Ryan Vilade (R)11.7%2.0 PA
7Cedric Mullins (L)11.7%2.0 PA
8Carson Williams (R)11.7%2.0 PA
9Hunter Feduccia (L)11.7%2.0 PA