Best MLB earned runs matchups — Wednesday, May 27, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Wednesday, May 27, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.6 BF
Expected batters faced9.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)11.7%1.6
2. José Ramírez (R)11.7%1.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)11.7%1.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L)11.7%1.0
5. Angel Martínez (R)11.7%1.0
6. Daniel Schneemann (L)11.7%1.0
7. Steven Kwan (L)11.7%1.0
8. Austin Hedges (R)11.7%1.0
9. Brayan Rocchio (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-145
BOVBovada+105-145
We project 1.1 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload10.2 BF
Expected batters faced10.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Blake Dunn (R)11.7%2.0
2. Elly De La Cruz (L)11.7%1.2
3. JJ Bleday (L)11.7%1.0
4. Sal Stewart (R)11.7%1.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R)11.7%1.0
6. Matt McLain (R)11.7%1.0
7. Spencer Steer (R)11.7%1.0
8. P.J. Higgins (R)11.7%1.0
9. Dane Myers (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload14.5 BF
Expected batters faced14.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)11.7%2.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)11.7%2.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)11.7%2.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)11.7%2.0
5. Nolan Gorman (L)11.7%2.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)11.7%1.4
7. Bryan Torres (L)11.7%1.0
8. Yohel Pozo (R)11.7%1.0
9. Victor Scott II (L)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-120
DKDraftKings-111-120
We project 1.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.0 BF
Expected batters faced20.0
From recent starts2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Chandler Simpson (L)11.7%3.0
2. Oliver Dunn (L)11.7%3.0
3. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
4. Nick Fortes (R)11.7%2.0
5. Richie Palacios (L)11.7%2.0
6. Ryan Vilade (R)11.7%2.0
7. Cedric Mullins (L)11.7%2.0
8. Carson Williams (R)11.7%2.0
9. Hunter Feduccia (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
BOVBovada+115-155
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.3 BF
Expected batters faced21.3
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Chase Meidroth (R)11.7%3.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L)11.7%3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)11.7%3.0
4. Randal Grichuk (R)11.7%2.3
5. Rikuu Nishida (L)11.7%2.0
6. Edgar Quero (R)11.7%2.0
7. Tristan Peters (L)11.7%2.0
8. Sam Antonacci (L)11.7%2.0
9. Luisangel Acuña (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.4 BF
Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jackson Holliday (L)11.7%3.0
2. Weston Wilson (R)11.7%3.0
3. Adley Rutschman (R)11.7%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)11.7%2.4
5. Coby Mayo (R)11.7%2.0
6. Leody Taveras (R)11.7%2.0
7. Colton Cowser (L)11.7%2.0
8. Blaze Alexander (R)11.7%2.0
9. Jeremiah Jackson (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-145
BOVBovada+115-155
DKDraftKings-101-131
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.6 BF
Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kyle Schwarber (L)11.7%3.0
2. Trea Turner (R)11.7%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)11.7%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)11.7%2.6
5. Bryson Stott (L)11.7%2.0
6. J.T. Realmuto (R)11.7%2.0
7. Adolis García (R)11.7%2.0
8. Justin Crawford (L)11.7%2.0
9. Edmundo Sosa (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
DKDraftKings+118-157
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.8 BF
Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)11.7%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)11.7%3.0
3. Vaughn Grissom (R)11.7%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)11.7%2.8
5. Wade Meckler (L)11.7%2.0
6. Jo Adell (R)11.7%2.0
7. Oswald Peraza (R)11.7%2.0
8. Donovan Walton (L)11.7%2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+120
BOVBovada-165+125
DKDraftKings-173+130
We project 2.5 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)5.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.2 BF
Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)11.7%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)11.7%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)11.7%3.0
4. Mark Vientos (R)11.7%3.0
5. Marcus Semien (R)11.7%2.2
6. A.J. Ewing (L)11.7%2.0
7. Jared Young (L)11.7%2.0
8. Brett Baty (L)11.7%2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
DKDraftKings+111-148
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)11.7%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)11.7%3.0
3. Christian Walker (R)11.7%3.0
4. Taylor Trammell (L)11.7%3.0
5. Cam Smith (R)11.7%2.5
6. Nick Allen (R)11.7%2.0
7. Jake Meyers (R)11.7%2.0
8. Brice Matthews (R)11.7%2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-110
DKDraftKings-129-103
FANFanatics-125-115
We project 2.5 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Nathan Lukes (L)11.7%3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
3. Daulton Varsho (L)11.7%3.0
4. George Springer (R)11.7%3.0
5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)11.7%2.5
6. Myles Straw (R)11.7%2.0
7. Ernie Clement (R)11.7%2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L)11.7%2.0
9. Tyler Heineman (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
BOVBovada+115-155
DKDraftKings+114-152
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)11.7%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)11.7%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)11.7%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)11.7%3.0
5. Max Muncy (L)11.7%2.7
6. Hyeseong Kim (L)11.7%2.0
7. Will Smith (R)11.7%2.0
8. Alex Call (R)11.7%2.0
9. Alex Freeland (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-120
DKDraftKings+100-133
We project 2.6 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts1
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Maikel Garcia (R)11.7%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)11.7%3.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)11.7%3.0
5. Carter Jensen (L)11.7%2.8
6. Lane Thomas (R)11.7%2.0
7. Jac Caglianone (L)11.7%2.0
8. Michael Massey (L)11.7%2.0
9. Isaac Collins (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
BOVBovada+145-190
DKDraftKings+123-164
FANFanatics+130-185
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Orlando Arcia (R)11.7%3.0
2. Ryan Kreidler (R)11.7%3.0
3. Trevor Larnach (L)11.7%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)11.7%3.0
5. Kody Clemens (L)11.7%3.0
6. James Outman (L)11.7%2.0
7. Luke Keaschall (R)11.7%2.0
8. Tristan Gray (L)11.7%2.0
9. Alex Jackson (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings-146+110
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carlos Cortes (L)11.7%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)11.7%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)11.7%3.0
4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)11.7%3.0
5. Jonah Heim (L)11.7%3.0
6. Henry Bolte (R)11.7%2.1
7. Jeff McNeil (L)11.7%2.0
8. Zack Gelof (R)11.7%2.0
9. Darell Hernaiz (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
DKDraftKings-114-116
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)11.7%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)11.7%3.0
3. Randy Arozarena (R)11.7%3.0
4. Josh Naylor (L)11.7%3.0
5. Luke Raley (L)11.7%3.0
6. Victor Robles (R)11.7%2.2
7. Cole Young (L)11.7%2.0
8. Jhonny Pereda (R)11.7%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-118
DKDraftKings-123-107
FANFanatics-120-120
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
2. Mauricio Dubón (R)11.7%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)11.7%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (R)11.7%3.0
5. Austin Riley (R)11.7%3.0
6. Michael Harris II (L)11.7%2.2
7. Jorge Mateo (R)11.7%2.0
8. Ha-Seong Kim (R)11.7%2.0
9. Chadwick Tromp (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
DKDraftKings-105-127
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)11.7%3.0
2. Corbin Carroll (L)11.7%3.0
3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)11.7%3.0
4. Adrian Del Castillo (L)11.7%3.0
5. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)11.7%3.0
6. Ildemaro Vargas (L)11.7%2.3
7. Jose Fernandez (R)11.7%2.0
8. Aramis Garcia (R)11.7%2.0
9. Jorge Barrosa (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
DKDraftKings+121-161
FANFanatics+105-150
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.4 BF
Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Spencer Horwitz (L)11.7%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)11.7%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)11.7%3.0
4. Nick Gonzales (R)11.7%3.0
5. Oneil Cruz (L)11.7%3.0
6. Konnor Griffin (R)11.7%2.4
7. Marcell Ozuna (R)11.7%2.0
8. Endy Rodríguez (L)11.7%2.0
9. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-145+100
DKDraftKings-130-102
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)11.7%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)11.7%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)11.7%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)11.7%3.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L)11.7%2.5
7. Luis Rengifo (L)11.7%2.0
8. Sal Frelick (L)11.7%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135-105
BOVBovada-130-110
DKDraftKings-117-114
FANFanatics-130-110
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Paul Goldschmidt (R)11.7%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)11.7%3.0
3. Aaron Judge (R)11.7%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)11.7%3.0
5. Trent Grisham (L)11.7%3.0
6. Anthony Volpe (R)11.7%2.5
7. Ryan McMahon (L)11.7%2.0
8. José Caballero (R)11.7%2.0
9. Austin Wells (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-110
DKDraftKings-136+102
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Chad Stevens (R)11.7%3.0
2. Tyler Freeman (R)11.7%3.0
3. TJ Rumfield (L)11.7%3.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)11.7%3.0
5. Troy Johnston (L)11.7%3.0
6. Willi Castro (L)11.7%2.5
7. Ezequiel Tovar (R)11.7%2.0
8. Sterlin Thompson (L)11.7%2.0
9. Kyle Karros (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
DKDraftKings+130-173
FANFanatics+120-170
We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Willy Adames (R)11.7%3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L)11.7%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)11.7%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)11.7%3.0
5. Matt Chapman (R)11.7%3.0
6. Bryce Eldridge (L)11.7%2.6
7. Daniel Susac (R)11.7%2.0
8. Harrison Bader (R)11.7%2.0
9. Victor Bericoto (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+125-185
DKDraftKings+127-169
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Xavier Edwards (L)11.7%3.0
2. Liam Hicks (L)11.7%3.0
3. Otto Lopez (R)11.7%3.0
4. Kyle Stowers (L)11.7%3.0
5. Jakob Marsee (L)11.7%3.0
6. Connor Norby (R)11.7%2.9
7. Javier Sanoja (R)11.7%2.0
8. Esteury Ruiz (R)11.7%2.0
9. Graham Pauley (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
DKDraftKings+120-160
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Matt Vierling (R)11.7%3.0
2. Kevin McGonigle (L)11.7%3.0
3. Dillon Dingler (R)11.7%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)11.7%3.0
5. Zach McKinstry (L)11.7%3.0
6. Spencer Torkelson (R)11.7%2.9
7. Wenceel Pérez (L)11.7%2.0
8. Jahmai Jones (R)11.7%2.0
9. Hao-Yu Lee (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-175+125
DKDraftKings-165+124
FANFanatics-180+125
We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.3 BF
Expected batters faced24.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)11.7%3.0
2. Sam Haggerty (L)11.7%3.0
3. Brandon Nimmo (L)11.7%3.0
4. Josh Jung (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jake Burger (R)11.7%3.0
6. Evan Carter (L)11.7%3.0
7. Justin Foscue (R)11.7%2.3
8. Danny Jansen (R)11.7%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-118
DKDraftKings-116-114
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.9 BF
Expected batters faced24.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jarren Duran (L)11.7%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)11.7%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)11.7%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)11.7%3.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)11.7%3.0
6. Mickey Gasper (L)11.7%3.0
7. Nick Sogard (L)11.7%2.9
8. Marcelo Mayer (L)11.7%2.0
9. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-118
BOVBovada-120-120
DKDraftKings-131-102
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.3 BF
Expected batters faced25.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)11.7%3.0
2. Nico Hoerner (R)11.7%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)11.7%3.0
4. Alex Bregman (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)11.7%3.0
6. Seiya Suzuki (R)11.7%3.0
7. Michael Conforto (L)11.7%3.0
8. Carson Kelly (R)11.7%2.3
9. Dansby Swanson (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.4 BF
Expected batters faced25.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)11.7%3.0
2. Andrés Chaparro (R)11.7%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)11.7%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)11.7%3.0
5. Daylen Lile (L)11.7%3.0
6. José Tena (L)11.7%3.0
7. Jorbit Vivas (L)11.7%3.0
8. Drew Millas (L)11.7%2.4
9. Jacob Young (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-185+130
DKDraftKings-161+121
FANFanatics-185+130
We project 2.9 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload26.9 BF
Expected batters faced26.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
2. Miguel Andujar (R)11.7%3.0
3. Gavin Sheets (L)11.7%3.0
4. Manny Machado (R)11.7%3.0
5. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.7%3.0
6. Ramón Laureano (R)11.7%3.0
7. Jackson Merrill (L)11.7%3.0
8. Nick Castellanos (R)11.7%3.0
9. Rodolfo Durán (R)11.7%2.9
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-115
DKDraftKings-109-122
FANFanatics-125-115
We project 3.0 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
21 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Connor PrielippP
MIN@CWS· proj #5
6ERFinal
T1
Steven MatzP
TB@BAL· proj #6
6ERFinal
3
Bryce ElderP
ATL@BOS· proj #27
5ERFinal
4
Jameson TaillonP
CHC@PIT· proj #19
4ERFinal
5
Andrew AbbottP
CIN@NYM· proj #9
3ERFinal
T5
Tomoyuki SuganoP
COL@LAD· proj #12
3ERFinal
T5
José SorianoP
LAA@DET· proj #25
3ERFinal
8
Walker BuehlerP
SDvsPHI· proj #7
2ERFinal
T8
Jacob deGromP
TEXvsHOU· proj #10
2ERFinal
T8
Jeffrey SpringsP
ATHvsSEA· proj #16
2ERFinal
T8
Trevor McDonaldP
SFvsAZ· proj #18
2ERFinal
T8
Noah CameronP
KCvsNYY· proj #21
2ERFinal
T8
Michael SorokaP
AZ@SF· proj #23
2ERFinal
T8
Mike BurrowsP
HOU@TEX· proj #26
2ERFinal
15
Chad PatrickP
MILvsSTL· proj #3
1ERFinal
T15
Trey GibsonP
BALvsTB· proj #4
1ERFinal
T15
David SandlinP
CWSvsMIN· proj #14
1ERFinal
T15
Dustin MayP
STL@MIL· proj #20
1ERFinal
T15
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsCOL· 1-for-4· proj #22
1ERFinal
T15
Kevin GausmanP
TORvsMIA· proj #24
1ERFinal
T15
Gavin WilliamsP
CLEvsWSH· proj #29
1ERFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
1/425%
season 52%-27 pts-4% ROI
Top 10
4/944%
season 52%-8 pts-6% ROI
Top 20
6/1932%
season building
Top 50
8/2829%
season building
Full slate
8/2829%
season 49%-20 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Wednesday, May 27, 2026
PJ Poulin (WSH) is the top earned runs spot on the Wednesday, May 27, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.1 ER, with Huascar Brazobán (NYM) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: PJ Poulin
PJ Poulin (WSH) tops the Wednesday, May 27, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.1 ER vs CLE. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Huascar Brazobán (NYM) (97) — about 1.1 ER vs CIN.
Chad Patrick (MIL) (72) — about 1.6 ER vs STL.
Trey Gibson (BAL) (40) — about 2.3 ER vs TB.
Connor Prielipp (MIN) (32) — about 2.4 ER vs CWS.
Steven Matz (TB) (32) — about 2.4 ER vs BAL.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 2.1 ER. PJ Poulin finished with 0. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Wednesday, May 27, 2026)?
PJ Poulin (WSH) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.1 ER against CLE.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Wednesday, May 27, 2026: PJ Poulin (~1.1 ER), Huascar Brazobán (~1.1 ER), Chad Patrick (~1.6 ER), Trey Gibson (~2.3 ER), Connor Prielipp (~2.4 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
