MatchWiz Plays
Earned Runs · Thursday, May 28, 2026

CHC @ PIT Earned Runs matchups · Thursday, May 28, 2026

CHC
CHC
Chicago Cubs
72
Final
PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates
PIT
PNC ParkElevation 780 ftCenter Field 399 ft 73°F ClearWind 10 mph, L To R

CHC Colin Rea · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-125
BOVBovada-115-125
DKDraftKings-110-120

We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

PIT lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Spencer Horwitz (L)11.7%3.0 PA
2Brandon Lowe (L)11.7%3.0 PA
3Bryan Reynolds (L)11.7%3.0 PA
4Oneil Cruz (L)11.7%3.0 PA
5Jhostynxon Garcia (R)11.7%3.0 PA
6Jake Mangum (L)11.7%2.3 PA
7Tyler Callihan (L)11.7%2.0 PA
8Jared Triolo (R)11.7%2.0 PA
9Henry Davis (R)11.7%2.0 PA

PIT Paul Skenes · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.9%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-165
BOVBovada+125-165
DKDraftKings+122-163
FANFanatics+120-170

We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

CHC lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)11.7%3.0 PA
2Nico Hoerner (R)11.7%3.0 PA
3Michael Busch (L)11.7%3.0 PA
4Alex Bregman (R)11.7%3.0 PA
5Ian Happ (L)11.7%2.6 PA
6Seiya Suzuki (R)11.7%2.0 PA
7Michael Conforto (L)11.7%2.0 PA
8Miguel Amaya (R)11.7%2.0 PA
9Dansby Swanson (R)11.7%2.0 PA