Best MLB earned runs matchups — Thursday, May 28, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, May 28, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.5 BF
Expected batters faced19.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)11.7%3.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L)11.7%2.5
3. Miguel Vargas (R)11.7%2.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)11.7%2.0
5. Chase Meidroth (R)11.7%2.0
6. Tristan Peters (L)11.7%2.0
7. Randal Grichuk (R)11.7%2.0
8. Derek Hill (R)11.7%2.0
9. Edgar Quero (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.7 BF
Expected batters faced20.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)11.7%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)11.7%3.0
3. Vaughn Grissom (R)11.7%2.7
4. Jorge Soler (R)11.7%2.0
5. Jose Siri (R)11.7%2.0
6. Jo Adell (R)11.7%2.0
7. Oswald Peraza (R)11.7%2.0
8. Sebastián Rivero (R)11.7%2.0
9. Donovan Walton (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-175
DKDraftKings+119-158
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.6 BF
Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)11.7%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)11.7%3.0
3. Adley Rutschman (R)11.7%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)11.7%2.6
5. Weston Wilson (R)11.7%2.0
6. Leody Taveras (R)11.7%2.0
7. Colton Cowser (L)11.7%2.0
8. Jackson Holliday (L)11.7%2.0
9. Blaze Alexander (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-120
DKDraftKings-115-115
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.6 BF
Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)11.7%3.0
2. Nico Hoerner (R)11.7%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)11.7%3.0
4. Alex Bregman (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)11.7%2.6
6. Seiya Suzuki (R)11.7%2.0
7. Michael Conforto (L)11.7%2.0
8. Miguel Amaya (R)11.7%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-165
BOVBovada+125-165
DKDraftKings+122-163
FANFanatics+120-170
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)11.7%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)11.7%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
4. Daulton Varsho (L)11.7%3.0
5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)11.7%2.8
6. Yohendrick Piñango (L)11.7%2.0
7. Ernie Clement (R)11.7%2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L)11.7%2.0
9. Brandon Valenzuela (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-175
DKDraftKings+108-144
FANFanatics+120-170
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Colt Keith (L)11.7%3.0
2. Kevin McGonigle (L)11.7%3.0
3. Dillon Dingler (R)11.7%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)11.7%3.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)11.7%3.0
6. Zach McKinstry (L)11.7%2.0
7. Matt Vierling (R)11.7%2.0
8. Wenceel Pérez (L)11.7%2.0
9. Jahmai Jones (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-145+100
DKDraftKings-120-111
FANFanatics-140+100
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
2. Mauricio Dubón (R)11.7%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)11.7%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (R)11.7%3.0
5. Austin Riley (R)11.7%3.0
6. Michael Harris II (L)11.7%2.2
7. Jorge Mateo (R)11.7%2.0
8. Dominic Smith (L)11.7%2.0
9. Chadwick Tromp (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+105
DKDraftKings-152+115
FANFanatics-150+105
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Spencer Horwitz (L)11.7%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)11.7%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)11.7%3.0
4. Oneil Cruz (L)11.7%3.0
5. Jhostynxon Garcia (R)11.7%3.0
6. Jake Mangum (L)11.7%2.3
7. Tyler Callihan (L)11.7%2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R)11.7%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-125
BOVBovada-115-125
DKDraftKings-110-120
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.2 BF
Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Byron Buxton (R)11.7%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L)11.7%3.0
3. Trevor Larnach (L)11.7%3.0
4. Kody Clemens (L)11.7%3.0
5. Josh Bell (L)11.7%3.0
6. Orlando Arcia (R)11.7%3.0
7. Victor Caratini (L)11.7%2.2
8. Tristan Gray (L)11.7%2.0
9. Ryan Kreidler (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-175
FANFanatics+120-170
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.4 BF
Expected batters faced24.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jarren Duran (L)11.7%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)11.7%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)11.7%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)11.7%3.0
5. Andruw Monasterio (R)11.7%3.0
6. Marcelo Mayer (L)11.7%3.0
7. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)11.7%2.4
8. Carlos Narváez (R)11.7%2.0
9. Caleb Durbin (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+105
BOVBovada-150+110
DKDraftKings-127-104
We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.4 BF
Expected batters faced24.4
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Justin Foscue (R)11.7%3.0
2. Sam Haggerty (L)11.7%3.0
3. Brandon Nimmo (L)11.7%3.0
4. Josh Jung (R)11.7%3.0
5. Evan Carter (L)11.7%3.0
6. Jake Burger (R)11.7%3.0
7. Ezequiel Duran (R)11.7%2.4
8. Kyle Higashioka (R)11.7%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-160
DKDraftKings+106-141
FANFanatics+115-165
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.5 BF
Expected batters faced25.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)11.7%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)11.7%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)11.7%3.0
4. Jake Meyers (R)11.7%3.0
5. Cam Smith (R)11.7%3.0
6. Braden Shewmake (L)11.7%3.0
7. Nick Allen (R)11.7%3.0
8. Brice Matthews (R)11.7%2.5
9. Christian Vázquez (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+115
DKDraftKings-157+118
We project 2.9 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
12 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Simeon Woods RichardsonP
MIN@CWS· proj #1
5ERFinal
T1
Nathan EovaldiP
TEXvsHOU· proj #12
5ERFinal
3
Jack FlahertyP
DETvsLAA· proj #2
3ERFinal
4
Payton TolleP
BOSvsATL· proj #7
2ERFinal
T4
Colin ReaP
CHC@PIT· proj #8
2ERFinal
T4
Chris SaleP
ATL@BOS· proj #10
2ERFinal
7
Patrick CorbinP
TOR@BAL· proj #3
1ERFinal
T7
Paul SkenesP
PITvsCHC· proj #4
1ERFinal
T7
Chris BassittP
BALvsTOR· proj #5
1ERFinal
T7
Grayson RodriguezP
LAA@DET· proj #6
1ERFinal
T7
Davis MartinP
CWSvsMIN· proj #9
1ERFinal
T7
Spencer ArrighettiP
HOU@TEX· proj #11
1ERFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
1/425%
season 52%-27 pts-4% ROI
Top 10
3/933%
season 52%-19 pts-6% ROI
Top 20
4/1136%
season building
Top 50
4/1136%
season building
Full slate
4/1136%
season 49%-13 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Thursday, May 28, 2026
Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) is the top earned runs spot on the Thursday, May 28, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 2.2 ER, with Jack Flaherty (DET) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Simeon Woods Richardson
Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) tops the Thursday, May 28, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 2.2 ER vs CWS. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Jack Flaherty (DET) (80) — about 2.3 ER vs LAA.
Patrick Corbin (TOR) (65) — about 2.4 ER vs BAL.
Paul Skenes (PIT) (48) — about 2.6 ER vs CHC.
Chris Bassitt (BAL) (45) — about 2.6 ER vs TOR.
Grayson Rodriguez (LAA) (42) — about 2.6 ER vs DET.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 1.9 ER. Simeon Woods Richardson finished with 5. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Thursday, May 28, 2026)?
Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 2.2 ER against CWS.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Thursday, May 28, 2026: Simeon Woods Richardson (~2.2 ER), Jack Flaherty (~2.3 ER), Patrick Corbin (~2.4 ER), Paul Skenes (~2.6 ER), Chris Bassitt (~2.6 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
