MatchWiz Plays
Earned Runs · Thursday, May 28, 2026

ATL @ BOS Earned Runs matchups · Thursday, May 28, 2026

ATL
ATL
Atlanta Braves
102
Final
BOS
Boston Red Sox
BOS
Fenway ParkElevation 21 ftCenter Field 420 ft 68°F Partly CloudyWind 4 mph, In From CF

ATL Chris Sale · LHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.2%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.4 BF

Expected batters faced24.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+105
BOVBovada-150+110
DKDraftKings-127-104

We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

BOS lineup · K rate vs LHPExp PA
1Jarren Duran (L)11.7%3.0 PA
2Ceddanne Rafaela (R)11.7%3.0 PA
3Wilyer Abreu (L)11.7%3.0 PA
4Willson Contreras (R)11.7%3.0 PA
5Andruw Monasterio (R)11.7%3.0 PA
6Marcelo Mayer (L)11.7%3.0 PA
7Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)11.7%2.4 PA
8Carlos Narváez (R)11.7%2.0 PA
9Caleb Durbin (R)11.7%2.0 PA

BOS Payton Tolle · LHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+105
DKDraftKings-152+115
FANFanatics-150+105

We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

ATL lineup · K rate vs LHPExp PA
1Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)11.7%3.0 PA
2Mauricio Dubón (R)11.7%3.0 PA
3Matt Olson (L)11.7%3.0 PA
4Ozzie Albies (R)11.7%3.0 PA
5Austin Riley (R)11.7%3.0 PA
6Michael Harris II (L)11.7%2.2 PA
7Jorge Mateo (R)11.7%2.0 PA
8Dominic Smith (L)11.7%2.0 PA
9Chadwick Tromp (R)11.7%2.0 PA