MatchWiz Plays
Earned Runs · Tuesday, June 2, 2026

BAL @ BOS Earned Runs matchups · Tuesday, June 2, 2026

BAL
BAL
Baltimore Orioles
42
Final
BOS
Boston Red Sox
BOS
Fenway ParkElevation 21 ftCenter Field 420 ft 73°F Partly CloudyWind 2 mph, L To R

BAL Shane Baz · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload25.2 BF

Expected batters faced25.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.8 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-115
DKDraftKings-130-102

We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

BOS lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Jarren Duran (L)11.7%3.0 PA
2Ceddanne Rafaela (R)11.7%3.0 PA
3Wilyer Abreu (L)11.7%3.0 PA
4Willson Contreras (R)11.7%3.0 PA
5Masataka Yoshida (L)11.7%3.0 PA
6Mickey Gasper (L)11.7%3.0 PA
7Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)11.7%3.0 PA
8Marcelo Mayer (L)11.7%2.2 PA
9Caleb Durbin (R)11.7%2.0 PA

BOS Connelly Early · LHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-175
FANFanatics+120-170

We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

BAL lineup · K rate vs LHPExp PA
1Taylor Ward (R)11.7%3.0 PA
2Gunnar Henderson (L)11.7%3.0 PA
3Adley Rutschman (R)11.7%3.0 PA
4Pete Alonso (R)11.7%3.0 PA
5Samuel Basallo (L)11.7%3.0 PA
6Jeremiah Jackson (R)11.7%2.8 PA
7Colton Cowser (L)11.7%2.0 PA
8Leody Taveras (R)11.7%2.0 PA
9Blaze Alexander (R)11.7%2.0 PA