Best MLB earned runs matchups — Tuesday, June 2, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Tuesday, June 2, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.2 BF
Expected batters faced9.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Heriberto Hernández (R)11.7%1.2
2. Otto Lopez (R)11.7%1.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L)11.7%1.0
4. Xavier Edwards (R)11.7%1.0
5. Javier Sanoja (R)11.7%1.0
6. Liam Hicks (L)11.7%1.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L)11.7%1.0
8. Esteury Ruiz (R)11.7%1.0
9. Joe Mack (L)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+165-250
FANFanatics+165-240
We project 1.0 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.9 BF
Expected batters faced9.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)11.7%1.9
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)11.7%1.0
3. Randy Arozarena (R)11.7%1.0
4. Luke Raley (L)11.7%1.0
5. Cole Young (L)11.7%1.0
6. Dominic Canzone (L)11.7%1.0
7. Patrick Wisdom (R)11.7%1.0
8. Jhonny Pereda (R)11.7%1.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+210-325
We project 1.1 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload10.5 BF
Expected batters faced10.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)11.7%2.0
2. Nasim Nuñez (L)11.7%1.6
3. Curtis Mead (R)11.7%1.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)11.7%1.0
5. Daylen Lile (L)11.7%1.0
6. Dylan Crews (R)11.7%1.0
7. Jorbit Vivas (L)11.7%1.0
8. Keibert Ruiz (L)11.7%1.0
9. José Tena (L)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.9 BF
Expected batters faced20.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Chandler Simpson (L)11.7%3.0
2. Junior Caminero (R)11.7%3.0
3. Jonathan Aranda (L)11.7%2.9
4. Oliver Dunn (L)11.7%2.0
5. Richie Palacios (L)11.7%2.0
6. Ryan Vilade (R)11.7%2.0
7. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
8. Hunter Feduccia (L)11.7%2.0
9. Ben Williamson (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-130
DKDraftKings-102-130
FANFanatics-110-130
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.1 BF
Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Gleyber Torres (R)11.7%3.0
2. Matt Vierling (R)11.7%3.0
3. Dillon Dingler (R)11.7%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)11.7%2.1
5. Jahmai Jones (R)11.7%2.0
6. Spencer Torkelson (R)11.7%2.0
7. Wenceel Pérez (R)11.7%2.0
8. Zach McKinstry (L)11.7%2.0
9. Zack Short (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings-142+107
We project 2.4 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.2 BF
Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ben Rice (L)11.7%3.0
2. Paul Goldschmidt (R)11.7%3.0
3. Cody Bellinger (L)11.7%3.0
4. Amed Rosario (R)11.7%2.2
5. Trent Grisham (L)11.7%2.0
6. Anthony Volpe (R)11.7%2.0
7. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
8. José Caballero (R)11.7%2.0
9. Austin Wells (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
DKDraftKings+111-147
FANFanatics+105-150
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.2 BF
Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (R)11.7%3.0
2. Corbin Carroll (L)11.7%3.0
3. Gabriel Moreno (R)11.7%3.0
4. Nolan Arenado (R)11.7%2.2
5. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)11.7%2.0
6. Ildemaro Vargas (R)11.7%2.0
7. Geraldo Perdomo (R)11.7%2.0
8. Pavin Smith (L)11.7%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+100
DKDraftKings-120-111
FANFanatics-140+100
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.3 BF
Expected batters faced21.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Casey Schmitt (R)11.7%3.0
2. Rafael Devers (L)11.7%3.0
3. Luis Arraez (L)11.7%3.0
4. Willy Adames (R)11.7%2.3
5. Matt Chapman (R)11.7%2.0
6. Bryce Eldridge (L)11.7%2.0
7. Daniel Susac (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jung Hoo Lee (L)11.7%2.0
9. Drew Gilbert (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-115
DKDraftKings-105-127
We project 2.4 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Chase Meidroth (R)11.7%3.0
2. Tristan Peters (L)11.7%3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)11.7%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)11.7%2.5
5. Drew Romo (R)11.7%2.0
6. Derek Hill (R)11.7%2.0
7. Andrew Benintendi (L)11.7%2.0
8. Luisangel Acuña (R)11.7%2.0
9. Jacob Gonzalez (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-160
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.0 BF
Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)11.7%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)11.7%3.0
3. Christian Walker (R)11.7%3.0
4. Isaac Paredes (R)11.7%3.0
5. Taylor Trammell (L)11.7%2.0
6. Cam Smith (R)11.7%2.0
7. Jake Meyers (R)11.7%2.0
8. Brice Matthews (R)11.7%2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
DKDraftKings+112-148
FANFanatics+105-150
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.2 BF
Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
2. Gavin Sheets (L)11.7%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)11.7%3.0
4. Miguel Andujar (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jackson Merrill (L)11.7%2.2
6. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.7%2.0
7. Jase Bowen (R)11.7%2.0
8. Sung-Mun Song (L)11.7%2.0
9. Rodolfo Durán (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
DKDraftKings+125-166
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)11.7%3.0
2. Willi Castro (L)11.7%3.0
3. TJ Rumfield (L)11.7%3.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)11.7%3.0
5. Troy Johnston (L)11.7%2.3
6. Ezequiel Tovar (R)11.7%2.0
7. Sterlin Thompson (L)11.7%2.0
8. Kyle Karros (R)11.7%2.0
9. Chad Stevens (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
DKDraftKings+123-163
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jorge Soler (R)11.7%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)11.7%3.0
3. Wade Meckler (L)11.7%3.0
4. Vaughn Grissom (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jo Adell (R)11.7%2.5
6. Donovan Walton (L)11.7%2.0
7. Oswald Peraza (R)11.7%2.0
8. Nick Madrigal (R)11.7%2.0
9. Adam Frazier (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
DKDraftKings-127-105
FANFanatics-155+110
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.6 BF
Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kyle Schwarber (L)11.7%3.0
2. Trea Turner (R)11.7%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)11.7%3.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L)11.7%3.0
5. Alec Bohm (R)11.7%2.6
6. Bryson Stott (L)11.7%2.0
7. Justin Crawford (L)11.7%2.0
8. Adolis García (R)11.7%2.0
9. Rafael Marchán (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-145+100
DKDraftKings-141+106
FANFanatics-140+100
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)5.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Lane Thomas (R)11.7%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
3. Salvador Perez (R)11.7%3.0
4. Carter Jensen (L)11.7%3.0
5. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)11.7%2.7
6. Nick Loftin (R)11.7%2.0
7. Jac Caglianone (L)11.7%2.0
8. Kyle Isbel (L)11.7%2.0
9. Michael Massey (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-115
DKDraftKings-115-116
FANFanatics-125-115
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.9 BF
Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Lawrence Butler (L)11.7%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)11.7%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)11.7%3.0
4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)11.7%3.0
5. Brent Rooker (R)11.7%2.9
6. Henry Bolte (R)11.7%2.0
7. Jeff McNeil (L)11.7%2.0
8. Zack Gelof (R)11.7%2.0
9. Alika Williams (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-160
DKDraftKings+120-160
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)11.7%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)11.7%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)11.7%3.0
4. Jared Young (L)11.7%3.0
5. Mark Vientos (R)11.7%3.0
6. Brett Baty (L)11.7%2.1
7. Marcus Semien (R)11.7%2.0
8. A.J. Ewing (L)11.7%2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-185+130
BOVBovada-175+135
DKDraftKings-174+130
FANFanatics-185+130
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Nathaniel Lowe (L)11.7%3.0
2. JJ Bleday (L)11.7%3.0
3. Sal Stewart (R)11.7%3.0
4. Eugenio Suárez (R)11.7%3.0
5. Spencer Steer (R)11.7%3.0
6. TJ Friedl (L)11.7%2.2
7. Blake Dunn (R)11.7%2.0
8. Edwin Arroyo (R)11.7%2.0
9. Will Benson (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
DKDraftKings-117-113
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.4 BF
Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)11.7%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)11.7%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)11.7%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)11.7%3.0
5. Kyle Tucker (L)11.7%3.0
6. Max Muncy (L)11.7%2.4
7. Alex Call (R)11.7%2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L)11.7%2.0
9. Alex Freeland (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
DKDraftKings+100-133
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts1
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Nico Hoerner (R)11.7%3.0
2. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)11.7%3.0
3. Alex Bregman (R)11.7%3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ian Happ (R)11.7%3.0
6. Carson Kelly (R)11.7%2.5
7. Michael Busch (L)11.7%2.0
8. Michael Conforto (L)11.7%2.0
9. Pedro Ramírez (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-185+125
DKDraftKings-170+128
We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
2. Michael Harris II (L)11.7%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)11.7%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (L)11.7%3.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)11.7%3.0
6. Austin Riley (R)11.7%2.7
7. Mike Yastrzemski (L)11.7%2.0
8. Jorge Mateo (R)11.7%2.0
9. Sandy León (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-125
DKDraftKings+104-138
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)11.7%3.0
2. Josh Jung (R)11.7%3.0
3. Brandon Nimmo (L)11.7%3.0
4. Jake Burger (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)11.7%3.0
6. Alejandro Osuna (L)11.7%2.7
7. Evan Carter (L)11.7%2.0
8. Danny Jansen (R)11.7%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings-174+130
We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)11.7%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)11.7%3.0
3. Adley Rutschman (R)11.7%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)11.7%3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)11.7%3.0
6. Jeremiah Jackson (R)11.7%2.8
7. Colton Cowser (L)11.7%2.0
8. Leody Taveras (R)11.7%2.0
9. Blaze Alexander (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-175
FANFanatics+120-170
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Byron Buxton (R)11.7%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L)11.7%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)11.7%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)11.7%3.0
5. Ryan Kreidler (R)11.7%3.0
6. Austin Martin (R)11.7%2.8
7. Luke Keaschall (R)11.7%2.0
8. Tristan Gray (L)11.7%2.0
9. Alex Jackson (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings+110-147
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)11.7%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)11.7%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)11.7%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)11.7%3.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L)11.7%2.9
7. Sal Frelick (L)11.7%2.0
8. Luis Rengifo (L)11.7%2.0
9. David Hamilton (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-130
DKDraftKings-119-111
FANFanatics-110-130
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)11.7%3.0
2. José Ramírez (L)11.7%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)11.7%3.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L)11.7%3.0
5. Angel Martínez (L)11.7%3.0
6. Daniel Schneemann (L)11.7%2.9
7. Steven Kwan (L)11.7%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)11.7%2.0
9. Brayan Rocchio (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-110
DKDraftKings-121-110
We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.6 BF
Expected batters faced24.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)11.7%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)11.7%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
4. Daulton Varsho (L)11.7%3.0
5. Ernie Clement (R)11.7%3.0
6. Yohendrick Piñango (L)11.7%3.0
7. Myles Straw (R)11.7%2.6
8. Andrés Giménez (L)11.7%2.0
9. Jesús Sánchez (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-165
DKDraftKings+130-173
FANFanatics+120-170
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.6 BF
Expected batters faced24.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Spencer Horwitz (L)11.7%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)11.7%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)11.7%3.0
4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)11.7%3.0
5. Nick Gonzales (R)11.7%3.0
6. Oneil Cruz (L)11.7%3.0
7. Endy Rodríguez (L)11.7%2.6
8. Jake Mangum (L)11.7%2.0
9. Jared Triolo (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-125
DKDraftKings-110-121
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.2 BF
Expected batters faced25.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jarren Duran (L)11.7%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)11.7%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)11.7%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)11.7%3.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)11.7%3.0
6. Mickey Gasper (L)11.7%3.0
7. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)11.7%3.0
8. Marcelo Mayer (L)11.7%2.2
9. Caleb Durbin (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-115
DKDraftKings-130-102
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.5 BF
Expected batters faced25.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)11.7%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)11.7%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)11.7%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)11.7%3.0
5. Nelson Velázquez (R)11.7%3.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)11.7%3.0
7. José Fermín (R)11.7%3.0
8. Pedro Pagés (R)11.7%2.5
9. Victor Scott II (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+130-185
DKDraftKings+127-170
FANFanatics+125-180
We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
27 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Grayson RodriguezP
LAAvsCOL· proj #12
7ERFinal
2
Davis MartinP
CWS@MIN· proj #24
6ERFinal
3
Steven MatzP
TBvsDET· proj #5
5ERFinal
T3
Mike BurrowsP
HOUvsPIT· proj #28
5ERFinal
5
Joey CantilloP
CLE@NYY· proj #6
4ERFinal
T5
Connor PrielippP
MINvsCWS· proj #9
4ERFinal
T5
Bubba ChandlerP
PIT@HOU· proj #10
4ERFinal
T5
Michael SorokaP
AZvsLAD· proj #19
4ERFinal
T5
Kevin GausmanP
TOR@ATL· proj #21
4ERFinal
T5
Connelly EarlyP
BOSvsBAL· proj #23
4ERFinal
T5
Cam SchlittlerP
NYYvsCLE· proj #26
4ERFinal
T5
Nathan EovaldiP
TEX@STL· proj #30
4ERFinal
13
Andrew AbbottP
CINvsKC· proj #15
3ERFinal
T13
Logan GilbertP
SEAvsNYM· proj #17
3ERFinal
T13
Dustin MayP
STLvsTEX· proj #22
3ERFinal
T13
Trevor McDonaldP
SF@MIL· proj #25
3ERFinal
T13
Bryce ElderP
ATLvsTOR· proj #27
3ERFinal
18
Huascar BrazobánP
NYM@SEA· proj #2
2ERFinal
T18
Eric LauerP
LAD@AZ· proj #7
2ERFinal
T18
Aaron NolaP
PHIvsSD· proj #11
2ERFinal
T18
Tomoyuki SuganoP
COL@LAA· proj #13
2ERFinal
T18
Randy VásquezP
SD@PHI· proj #14
2ERFinal
T18
Jameson TaillonP
CHCvsATH· proj #16
2ERFinal
T18
Shane BazP
BAL@BOS· proj #29
2ERFinal
25
Kyle HarrisonP
MILvsSF· proj #8
1ERFinal
T25
Noah CameronP
KC@CIN· proj #18
1ERFinal
T25
Gage JumpP
ATH@CHC· proj #20
1ERFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
3/475%
season 52%+23 pts-4% ROI
Top 10
4/944%
season 52%-8 pts-6% ROI
Top 20
8/1942%
season building
Top 50
17/2959%
season building
Full slate
17/2959%
season 49%+10 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Tuesday, June 2, 2026
Richard Lovelady (WSH) is the top earned runs spot on the Tuesday, June 2, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER, with Huascar Brazobán (NYM) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Richard Lovelady
Richard Lovelady (WSH) tops the Tuesday, June 2, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER vs MIA. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Huascar Brazobán (NYM) (96) — about 1.1 ER vs SEA.
Lake Bachar (MIA) (92) — about 1.2 ER vs WSH.
Jack Flaherty (DET) (28) — about 2.4 ER vs TB.
Steven Matz (TB) (27) — about 2.4 ER vs DET.
Joey Cantillo (CLE) (27) — about 2.4 ER vs NYY.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 2.2 ER. Richard Lovelady finished with 0. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Tuesday, June 2, 2026)?
Richard Lovelady (WSH) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER against MIA.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Tuesday, June 2, 2026: Richard Lovelady (~1.0 ER), Huascar Brazobán (~1.1 ER), Lake Bachar (~1.2 ER), Jack Flaherty (~2.4 ER), Steven Matz (~2.4 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
