MatchWiz Plays
Earned Runs · Thursday, June 4, 2026

KC @ MIN Earned Runs matchups · Thursday, June 4, 2026

KC
KC
Kansas City Royals
86
Final
MIN
Minnesota Twins
MIN
Target FieldElevation 828 ftCenter Field 404 ft 83°F CloudyWind 9 mph, Out To LF

KC Seth Lugo · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload25.1 BF

Expected batters faced25.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.8 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-110
DKDraftKings-115-116
FANFanatics-130-110

We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

MIN lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Byron Buxton (R)11.7%3.0 PA
2Brooks Lee (L)11.7%3.0 PA
3Kody Clemens (L)11.7%3.0 PA
4Austin Martin (R)11.7%3.0 PA
5Josh Bell (L)11.7%3.0 PA
6Luke Keaschall (R)11.7%3.0 PA
7Victor Caratini (L)11.7%3.0 PA
8Tristan Gray (L)11.7%2.1 PA
9Orlando Arcia (R)11.7%2.0 PA

MIN Andrew Morris · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload9.4 BF

Expected batters faced9.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.1 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-115

We project 1.1 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

KC lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Carter Jensen (L)11.7%1.4 PA
2Bobby Witt Jr. (R)11.7%1.0 PA
3Vinnie Pasquantino (L)11.7%1.0 PA
4Tyler Tolbert (R)11.7%1.0 PA
5Lane Thomas (R)11.7%1.0 PA
6Isaac Collins (L)11.7%1.0 PA
7Alex Lange (R)11.7%1.0 PA
8Josh Rojas (L)11.7%1.0 PA
9Kyle Isbel (L)11.7%1.0 PA