Best MLB earned runs matchups — Thursday, June 4, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, June 4, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload8.5 BF
Expected batters faced8.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)11.7%1.0
2. Mauricio Dubón (R)11.7%1.0
3. Matt Olson (L)11.7%1.0
4. Ozzie Albies (R)11.7%1.0
5. Michael Harris II (L)11.7%1.0
6. Dominic Smith (L)11.7%1.0
7. Austin Riley (R)11.7%1.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)11.7%1.0
9. Austin Wynns (R)11.7%0.5
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+165-235
We project 1.0 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.4 BF
Expected batters faced9.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)11.7%1.4
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)11.7%1.0
3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)11.7%1.0
4. Tyler Tolbert (R)11.7%1.0
5. Lane Thomas (R)11.7%1.0
6. Isaac Collins (L)11.7%1.0
7. Alex Lange (R)11.7%1.0
8. Josh Rojas (L)11.7%1.0
9. Kyle Isbel (L)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-115
We project 1.1 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload15.9 BF
Expected batters faced15.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Spencer Horwitz (L)11.7%2.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)11.7%2.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)11.7%2.0
4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)11.7%2.0
5. Nick Gonzales (R)11.7%2.0
6. Oneil Cruz (L)11.7%2.0
7. Endy Rodríguez (L)11.7%1.9
8. Jake Mangum (L)11.7%1.0
9. Jared Triolo (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.0 BF
Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kyle Schwarber (L)11.7%3.0
2. Trea Turner (R)11.7%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)11.7%3.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L)11.7%2.0
5. Alec Bohm (R)11.7%2.0
6. Bryson Stott (L)11.7%2.0
7. J.T. Realmuto (R)11.7%2.0
8. Adolis García (R)11.7%2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings+122-162
We project 2.4 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.2 BF
Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Casey Schmitt (R)11.7%3.0
2. Buddy Kennedy (R)11.7%3.0
3. Jonah Cox (R)11.7%3.0
4. Willy Adames (R)11.7%2.2
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)11.7%2.0
6. Bryce Eldridge (L)11.7%2.0
7. Matt Chapman (R)11.7%2.0
8. Eric Haase (R)11.7%2.0
9. Drew Gilbert (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings+130-173
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.4 BF
Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kyle Manzardo (L)11.7%3.0
2. José Ramírez (R)11.7%3.0
3. Rhys Hoskins (R)11.7%3.0
4. Travis Bazzana (L)11.7%2.4
5. Angel Martínez (R)11.7%2.0
6. Chase DeLauter (L)11.7%2.0
7. Steven Kwan (L)11.7%2.0
8. Austin Hedges (R)11.7%2.0
9. Brayan Rocchio (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
DKDraftKings+113-150
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.6 BF
Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jarren Duran (L)11.7%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)11.7%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)11.7%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)11.7%2.6
5. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)11.7%2.0
6. Anthony Seigler (R)11.7%2.0
7. Caleb Durbin (R)11.7%2.0
8. Carlos Narváez (R)11.7%2.0
9. Connor Wong (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
DKDraftKings-136+102
FANFanatics-155+110
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)11.7%3.0
2. Michael Conforto (L)11.7%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)11.7%3.0
4. Alex Bregman (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)11.7%2.5
6. Nico Hoerner (R)11.7%2.0
7. Kevin Alcántara (R)11.7%2.0
8. Seiya Suzuki (R)11.7%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
DKDraftKings-149+112
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts1
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)11.7%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)11.7%3.0
3. Christian Walker (R)11.7%3.0
4. Isaac Paredes (R)11.7%3.0
5. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)11.7%2.5
6. Cam Smith (R)11.7%2.0
7. Taylor Trammell (L)11.7%2.0
8. Collin Price (R)11.7%2.0
9. Jake Meyers (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-165
DKDraftKings+121-161
FANFanatics+115-165
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.9 BF
Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)11.7%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)11.7%3.0
3. Gary Sánchez (R)11.7%3.0
4. Joey Ortiz (R)11.7%3.0
5. Blake Perkins (L)11.7%2.9
6. Andrew Vaughn (R)11.7%2.0
7. Sal Frelick (L)11.7%2.0
8. Luis Rengifo (L)11.7%2.0
9. David Hamilton (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
DKDraftKings+115-152
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 2.6 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)11.7%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)11.7%3.0
3. Adley Rutschman (L)11.7%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)11.7%3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)11.7%3.0
6. Leody Taveras (L)11.7%2.0
7. Colton Cowser (L)11.7%2.0
8. Coby Mayo (R)11.7%2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
DKDraftKings-124-107
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)11.7%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)11.7%3.0
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)11.7%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)11.7%3.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)11.7%3.0
6. José Caballero (R)11.7%2.0
7. Ryan McMahon (L)11.7%2.0
8. J.C. Escarra (L)11.7%2.0
9. Max Schuemann (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-110
DKDraftKings-141+107
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
2. Gavin Sheets (L)11.7%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)11.7%3.0
4. Ty France (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jackson Merrill (L)11.7%3.0
6. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.7%2.3
7. Miguel Andujar (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jase Bowen (R)11.7%2.0
9. Bryce Johnson (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+115
DKDraftKings-136+102
FANFanatics-165+115
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Mookie Betts (R)11.7%3.0
2. Freddie Freeman (L)11.7%3.0
3. Andy Pages (R)11.7%3.0
4. Kyle Tucker (L)11.7%3.0
5. Will Smith (R)11.7%3.0
6. Santiago Espinal (R)11.7%2.7
7. Alex Call (R)11.7%2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L)11.7%2.0
9. Miguel Rojas (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-145+105
DKDraftKings-118-112
FANFanatics-150+105
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.6 BF
Expected batters faced24.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)11.7%3.0
2. Ernie Clement (R)11.7%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)11.7%3.0
5. Andrés Giménez (L)11.7%3.0
6. Nathan Lukes (L)11.7%3.0
7. Myles Straw (R)11.7%2.6
8. Tyler Heineman (R)11.7%2.0
9. Daulton Varsho (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-110
DKDraftKings-125-106
FANFanatics-130-110
We project 2.8 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.6 BF
Expected batters faced24.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Henry Bolte (R)11.7%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)11.7%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)11.7%3.0
4. Lawrence Butler (L)11.7%3.0
5. Tyler Soderstrom (L)11.7%3.0
6. Jonah Heim (R)11.7%3.0
7. Zack Gelof (R)11.7%2.6
8. Darell Hernaiz (R)11.7%2.0
9. Alika Williams (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140-105
DKDraftKings-144+109
FANFanatics-165+115
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.1 BF
Expected batters faced25.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Byron Buxton (R)11.7%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L)11.7%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)11.7%3.0
4. Austin Martin (R)11.7%3.0
5. Josh Bell (L)11.7%3.0
6. Luke Keaschall (R)11.7%3.0
7. Victor Caratini (L)11.7%3.0
8. Tristan Gray (L)11.7%2.1
9. Orlando Arcia (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-110
DKDraftKings-115-116
FANFanatics-130-110
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.5 BF
Expected batters faced25.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (R)11.7%3.0
2. Corbin Carroll (L)11.7%3.0
3. Gabriel Moreno (R)11.7%3.0
4. Nolan Arenado (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)11.7%3.0
6. Adrian Del Castillo (L)11.7%3.0
7. Geraldo Perdomo (R)11.7%3.0
8. Jose Fernandez (R)11.7%2.5
9. Tommy Troy (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-145+100
DKDraftKings-131-101
We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
15 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Brayan BelloP
BOSvsBAL· proj #11
8ERFinal
2
Coleman CrowP
MILvsSF· proj #5
6ERFinal
T2
Shota ImanagaP
CHCvsATH· proj #16
6ERFinal
4
Seth LugoP
KC@MIN· proj #17
5ERFinal
5
Kai-Wei TengP
HOUvsPIT· proj #3
4ERFinal
6
Chris SaleP
ATLvsTOR· proj #15
3ERFinal
7
Andrew MorrisP
MINvsKC· proj #2
2ERFinal
T7
Lucas GiolitoP
SD@PHI· proj #4
2ERFinal
T7
Adrian HouserP
SF@MIL· proj #10
2ERFinal
T7
Zack WheelerP
PHIvsSD· proj #13
2ERFinal
T7
Ryne NelsonP
AZvsLAD· proj #14
2ERFinal
12
Carlos RodónP
NYYvsCLE· proj #6
1ERFinal
T12
Trevor RogersP
BAL@BOS· proj #7
1ERFinal
T12
J.T. GinnP
ATH@CHC· proj #8
1ERFinal
T12
Slade CecconiP
CLE@NYY· proj #12
1ERFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
2/450%
season 52%-2 pts-4% ROI
Top 10
5/956%
season 52%+4 pts-6% ROI
Top 20
10/1759%
season building
Top 50
10/1759%
season building
Full slate
10/1759%
season 49%+10 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Thursday, June 4, 2026
Mason Fluharty (TOR) is the top earned runs spot on the Thursday, June 4, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER, with Andrew Morris (MIN) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Mason Fluharty
Mason Fluharty (TOR) tops the Thursday, June 4, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER vs ATL. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Andrew Morris (MIN) (95) — about 1.1 ER vs KC.
Kai-Wei Teng (HOU) (56) — about 1.8 ER vs PIT.
Lucas Giolito (SD) (27) — about 2.4 ER vs PHI.
Coleman Crow (MIL) (26) — about 2.4 ER vs SF.
Carlos Rodón (NYY) (24) — about 2.4 ER vs CLE.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 1.9 ER. Mason Fluharty finished with 0. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Thursday, June 4, 2026)?
Mason Fluharty (TOR) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER against ATL.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Thursday, June 4, 2026: Mason Fluharty (~1.0 ER), Andrew Morris (~1.1 ER), Kai-Wei Teng (~1.8 ER), Lucas Giolito (~2.4 ER), Coleman Crow (~2.4 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
