‹ Earned Runs · Thursday, June 4, 2026
BAL @ BOS Earned Runs matchups · Thursday, June 4, 2026
BAL
Baltimore Orioles
8–2
Final
BOS
Boston Red Sox
◆ Fenway ParkElevation 21 ftCenter Field 420 ft☀ 87°F SunnyWind 10 mph, Out To LF
Trevor Rogers · LHP
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.6 BF
Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
DKDraftKings-136+102
FANFanatics-155+110
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
BOS lineup · K rate vs LHPExp PA
1Jarren Duran (L)11.7%3.0 PA
2Ceddanne Rafaela (R)11.7%3.0 PA
3Wilyer Abreu (L)11.7%3.0 PA
4Willson Contreras (R)11.7%2.6 PA
5Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)11.7%2.0 PA
6Anthony Seigler (R)11.7%2.0 PA
7Caleb Durbin (R)11.7%2.0 PA
8Carlos Narváez (R)11.7%2.0 PA
9Connor Wong (R)11.7%2.0 PA
Brayan Bello · RHP
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
DKDraftKings-124-107
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
BAL lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Taylor Ward (R)11.7%3.0 PA
2Gunnar Henderson (L)11.7%3.0 PA
3Adley Rutschman (L)11.7%3.0 PA
4Pete Alonso (R)11.7%3.0 PA
5Samuel Basallo (L)11.7%3.0 PA
6Leody Taveras (L)11.7%2.0 PA
7Colton Cowser (L)11.7%2.0 PA
8Coby Mayo (R)11.7%2.0 PA
9Jackson Holliday (L)11.7%2.0 PA