MatchWiz Plays
Earned Runs · Thursday, June 4, 2026

BAL @ BOS Earned Runs matchups · Thursday, June 4, 2026

BAL
BAL
Baltimore Orioles
82
Final
BOS
Boston Red Sox
BOS
Fenway ParkElevation 21 ftCenter Field 420 ft 87°F SunnyWind 10 mph, Out To LF

BAL Trevor Rogers · LHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.4 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
DKDraftKings-136+102
FANFanatics-155+110

We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

BOS lineup · K rate vs LHPExp PA
1Jarren Duran (L)11.7%3.0 PA
2Ceddanne Rafaela (R)11.7%3.0 PA
3Wilyer Abreu (L)11.7%3.0 PA
4Willson Contreras (R)11.7%2.6 PA
5Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)11.7%2.0 PA
6Anthony Seigler (R)11.7%2.0 PA
7Caleb Durbin (R)11.7%2.0 PA
8Carlos Narváez (R)11.7%2.0 PA
9Connor Wong (R)11.7%2.0 PA

BOS Brayan Bello · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
DKDraftKings-124-107

We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

BAL lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Taylor Ward (R)11.7%3.0 PA
2Gunnar Henderson (L)11.7%3.0 PA
3Adley Rutschman (L)11.7%3.0 PA
4Pete Alonso (R)11.7%3.0 PA
5Samuel Basallo (L)11.7%3.0 PA
6Leody Taveras (L)11.7%2.0 PA
7Colton Cowser (L)11.7%2.0 PA
8Coby Mayo (R)11.7%2.0 PA
9Jackson Holliday (L)11.7%2.0 PA