MatchWiz Plays
Earned Runs · Monday, June 8, 2026

BOS @ TB Earned Runs matchups · Monday, June 8, 2026

BOS
BOS
Boston Red Sox
13
Final
TB
Tampa Bay Rays
TB
Tropicana FieldElevation 15 ftCenter Field 404 ft 72°F DomeWind 0 mph, None

BOS Connelly Early · LHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-160
BOVBovada+125-165
DKDraftKings+117-156
FANFanatics+115-165

We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

TB lineup · K rate vs LHPExp PA
1Yandy Díaz (R)11.7%3.0 PA
2Richie Palacios (L)11.7%3.0 PA
3Chandler Simpson (L)11.7%3.0 PA
4Victor Mesa Jr. (L)11.7%3.0 PA
5Jonathan Aranda (L)11.7%3.0 PA
6Ben Williamson (R)11.7%2.8 PA
7Taylor Walls (R)11.7%2.0 PA
8Nick Fortes (R)11.7%2.0 PA
9Cedric Mullins (L)11.7%2.0 PA

TB Ian Seymour · LHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.6%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload10.8 BF

Expected batters faced10.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.2 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+130-185
BOVBovada+150-200

We project 1.2 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

BOS lineup · K rate vs LHPExp PA
1Jarren Duran (L)11.7%2.0 PA
2Ceddanne Rafaela (R)11.7%1.8 PA
3Wilyer Abreu (L)11.7%1.0 PA
4Willson Contreras (R)11.7%1.0 PA
5Mickey Gasper (R)11.7%1.0 PA
6Caleb Durbin (R)11.7%1.0 PA
7Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)11.7%1.0 PA
8Andruw Monasterio (R)11.7%1.0 PA
9Carlos Narváez (R)11.7%1.0 PA