‹ Earned Runs · Tuesday, June 9, 2026
CIN @ SD Earned Runs matchups · Tuesday, June 9, 2026
CIN
Cincinnati Reds
5–3
Final
SD
San Diego Padres
◆ Petco ParkElevation 23 ftCenter Field 396 ft☀ 70°F ClearWind 7 mph, Varies
Chase Burns · RHP
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-110
BOVBovada-125-115
DKDraftKings-124-107
FANFanatics-130-110
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
SD lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)11.7%3.0 PA
2Jackson Merrill (L)11.7%3.0 PA
3Manny Machado (R)11.7%3.0 PA
4Gavin Sheets (L)11.7%3.0 PA
5Ty France (R)11.7%3.0 PA
6Samad Taylor (R)11.7%2.1 PA
7Jase Bowen (R)11.7%2.0 PA
8Freddy Fermin (R)11.7%2.0 PA
9Sung-Mun Song (L)11.7%2.0 PA
Lucas Giolito · RHP
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.6 BF
Expected batters faced20.6
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings+115-153
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
CIN lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Blake Dunn (R)11.7%3.0 PA
2JJ Bleday (L)11.7%3.0 PA
3Sal Stewart (R)11.7%2.6 PA
4Dane Myers (R)11.7%2.0 PA
5Spencer Steer (R)11.7%2.0 PA
6Will Benson (L)11.7%2.0 PA
7Matt McLain (R)11.7%2.0 PA
8P.J. Higgins (R)11.7%2.0 PA
9Edwin Arroyo (L)11.7%2.0 PA