Best MLB earned runs matchups — Tuesday, June 9, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Tuesday, June 9, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.3 BF
Expected batters faced9.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Eli White (R)11.7%1.3
2. Michael Harris II (L)11.7%1.0
3. Matt Olson (L)11.7%1.0
4. Ozzie Albies (R)11.7%1.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)11.7%1.0
6. Dominic Smith (L)11.7%1.0
7. Austin Riley (R)11.7%1.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)11.7%1.0
9. Sandy León (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload16.8 BF
Expected batters faced16.8
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Casey Schmitt (R)11.7%2.0
2. Rafael Devers (L)11.7%2.0
3. Luis Arraez (L)11.7%2.0
4. Willy Adames (R)11.7%2.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)11.7%2.0
6. Bryce Eldridge (L)11.7%2.0
7. Matt Chapman (R)11.7%2.0
8. Daniel Susac (R)11.7%1.8
9. Victor Bericoto (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-160
DKDraftKings+114-152
We project 1.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload17.7 BF
Expected batters faced17.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Donovan Walton (L)11.7%2.0
2. Mike Trout (R)11.7%2.0
3. Wade Meckler (L)11.7%2.0
4. Jo Adell (R)11.7%2.0
5. Trey Mancini (R)11.7%2.0
6. Oswald Peraza (R)11.7%2.0
7. Denzer Guzman (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jose Siri (R)11.7%2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R)11.7%1.7
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.6 BF
Expected batters faced20.6
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Blake Dunn (R)11.7%3.0
2. JJ Bleday (L)11.7%3.0
3. Sal Stewart (R)11.7%2.6
4. Dane Myers (R)11.7%2.0
5. Spencer Steer (R)11.7%2.0
6. Will Benson (L)11.7%2.0
7. Matt McLain (R)11.7%2.0
8. P.J. Higgins (R)11.7%2.0
9. Edwin Arroyo (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings+115-153
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.4 BF
Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Victor Robles (R)11.7%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)11.7%3.0
3. Randy Arozarena (R)11.7%3.0
4. Josh Naylor (L)11.7%2.4
5. Dominic Canzone (L)11.7%2.0
6. Patrick Wisdom (R)11.7%2.0
7. Mitch Garver (R)11.7%2.0
8. Cole Young (L)11.7%2.0
9. Ryan Bliss (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-125
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings-102-129
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.8 BF
Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Lawrence Butler (L)11.7%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)11.7%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)11.7%3.0
4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)11.7%2.8
5. Max Muncy (R)11.7%2.0
6. Jonah Heim (R)11.7%2.0
7. Henry Bolte (R)11.7%2.0
8. Zack Gelof (R)11.7%2.0
9. Alika Williams (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-145+100
DKDraftKings-139+105
FANFanatics-140+100
We project 2.5 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.9 BF
Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Gonzales (R)11.7%3.0
2. Endy Rodríguez (R)11.7%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (R)11.7%3.0
4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)11.7%2.9
5. Marcell Ozuna (R)11.7%2.0
6. Davis Wendzel (R)11.7%2.0
7. Jake Mangum (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R)11.7%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+100
BOVBovada-140+100
FANFanatics-140+100
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)11.7%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)11.7%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)11.7%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)11.7%2.3
6. Garrett Mitchell (L)11.7%2.0
7. Sal Frelick (L)11.7%2.0
8. Joey Ortiz (R)11.7%2.0
9. David Hamilton (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-120
DKDraftKings-107-124
We project 2.5 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)11.7%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)11.7%3.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L)11.7%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L)11.7%3.0
5. Javier Sanoja (R)11.7%2.3
6. Esteury Ruiz (R)11.7%2.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L)11.7%2.0
8. Joe Mack (L)11.7%2.0
9. Connor Norby (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings-103-128
FANFanatics-110-130
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.4 BF
Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)11.7%3.0
2. Andrés Chaparro (R)11.7%3.0
3. Dylan Crews (R)11.7%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)11.7%3.0
5. Daylen Lile (L)11.7%2.4
6. Curtis Mead (R)11.7%2.0
7. Nasim Nuñez (L)11.7%2.0
8. Drew Millas (L)11.7%2.0
9. Jacob Young (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
BOVBovada-120-120
DKDraftKings-110-121
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)11.7%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)11.7%3.0
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)11.7%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)11.7%3.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)11.7%2.5
6. Spencer Jones (L)11.7%2.0
7. Anthony Volpe (R)11.7%2.0
8. Ryan McMahon (L)11.7%2.0
9. J.C. Escarra (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+100
DKDraftKings-134+101
FANFanatics-140+100
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)11.7%3.0
2. Pedro Ramírez (L)11.7%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)11.7%3.0
4. Alex Bregman (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)11.7%2.5
6. Seiya Suzuki (R)11.7%2.0
7. Nico Hoerner (R)11.7%2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R)11.7%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+115
BOVBovada-140+100
DKDraftKings-134+101
FANFanatics-165+115
We project 2.5 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shay Whitcomb (R)11.7%3.0
2. Taylor Trammell (L)11.7%3.0
3. Collin Price (R)11.7%3.0
4. Isaac Paredes (R)11.7%3.0
5. Brice Matthews (R)11.7%2.5
6. Cam Smith (R)11.7%2.0
7. Joey Loperfido (L)11.7%2.0
8. Jake Meyers (R)11.7%2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-130
DKDraftKings-108-122
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)11.7%3.0
2. Willi Castro (L)11.7%3.0
3. TJ Rumfield (L)11.7%3.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)11.7%3.0
5. Troy Johnston (L)11.7%2.7
6. Ezequiel Tovar (R)11.7%2.0
7. Cole Carrigg (L)11.7%2.0
8. Kyle Karros (R)11.7%2.0
9. Edouard Julien (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
BOVBovada+125-165
DKDraftKings+118-157
We project 2.6 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)11.7%3.0
2. Miguel Vargas (R)11.7%3.0
3. Andrew Benintendi (L)11.7%3.0
4. Jacob Gonzalez (L)11.7%3.0
5. Chase Meidroth (R)11.7%2.7
6. Braden Montgomery (L)11.7%2.0
7. Randal Grichuk (R)11.7%2.0
8. Derek Hill (R)11.7%2.0
9. Drew Romo (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-140
BOVBovada-120-120
DKDraftKings-115-116
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Patrick Bailey (L)11.7%3.0
2. José Ramírez (L)11.7%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)11.7%3.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L)11.7%3.0
5. Rhys Hoskins (R)11.7%2.8
6. Angel Martínez (L)11.7%2.0
7. Steven Kwan (L)11.7%2.0
8. Daniel Schneemann (L)11.7%2.0
9. Brayan Rocchio (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-125
DKDraftKings-108-123
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.9 BF
Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)11.7%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)11.7%3.0
3. Pete Alonso (R)11.7%3.0
4. Blaze Alexander (R)11.7%3.0
5. Leody Taveras (L)11.7%2.9
6. Coby Mayo (R)11.7%2.0
7. Jeremiah Jackson (R)11.7%2.0
8. Tyler O'Neill (R)11.7%2.0
9. Samuel Basallo (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-130
BOVBovada-115-125
DKDraftKings-101-131
FANFanatics-110-130
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L)11.7%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)11.7%3.0
4. Gavin Sheets (L)11.7%3.0
5. Ty France (R)11.7%3.0
6. Samad Taylor (R)11.7%2.1
7. Jase Bowen (R)11.7%2.0
8. Freddy Fermin (R)11.7%2.0
9. Sung-Mun Song (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-110
BOVBovada-125-115
DKDraftKings-124-107
FANFanatics-130-110
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)11.7%3.0
2. Junior Caminero (R)11.7%3.0
3. Chandler Simpson (L)11.7%3.0
4. Ryan Vilade (R)11.7%3.0
5. Austin Slater (R)11.7%3.0
6. Cedric Mullins (L)11.7%2.3
7. Ben Williamson (R)11.7%2.0
8. Nick Fortes (R)11.7%2.0
9. Taylor Walls (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-175
BOVBovada+130-170
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)11.7%3.0
3. Ernie Clement (R)11.7%3.0
4. Myles Straw (R)11.7%3.0
5. Daulton Varsho (L)11.7%3.0
6. Brandon Valenzuela (L)11.7%2.5
7. Kazuma Okamoto (R)11.7%2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L)11.7%2.0
9. Charles McAdoo (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-175+125
DKDraftKings-169+127
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Alex Call (R)11.7%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)11.7%3.0
3. Miguel Rojas (R)11.7%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)11.7%3.0
5. Santiago Espinal (R)11.7%3.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L)11.7%2.5
7. Ryan Ward (L)11.7%2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L)11.7%2.0
9. Alex Freeland (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-175
DKDraftKings+122-163
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)11.7%3.0
2. Corbin Carroll (L)11.7%3.0
3. Gabriel Moreno (R)11.7%3.0
4. Nolan Arenado (R)11.7%3.0
5. Pavin Smith (L)11.7%3.0
6. Geraldo Perdomo (L)11.7%2.5
7. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)11.7%2.0
8. LuJames Groover (R)11.7%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-175+120
BOVBovada-165+125
We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kyle Schwarber (L)11.7%3.0
2. Trea Turner (R)11.7%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)11.7%3.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L)11.7%3.0
5. Alec Bohm (R)11.7%3.0
6. Bryson Stott (L)11.7%2.6
7. J.T. Realmuto (R)11.7%2.0
8. Adolis García (R)11.7%2.0
9. Steward Berroa (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+100
BOVBovada-145+105
DKDraftKings-124-107
FANFanatics-140+100
We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Gleyber Torres (R)11.7%3.0
2. Kevin McGonigle (L)11.7%3.0
3. Dillon Dingler (R)11.7%3.0
4. Zack Short (R)11.7%3.0
5. Riley Greene (L)11.7%3.0
6. Spencer Torkelson (R)11.7%2.6
7. Colt Keith (L)11.7%2.0
8. Wenceel Pérez (L)11.7%2.0
9. Zach McKinstry (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings-112-118
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.0 BF
Expected batters faced24.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)11.7%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)11.7%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)11.7%3.0
4. Jared Young (L)11.7%3.0
5. A.J. Ewing (L)11.7%3.0
6. Marcus Semien (R)11.7%3.0
7. Brett Baty (L)11.7%2.0
8. Mark Vientos (R)11.7%2.0
9. Francisco Alvarez (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-145
DKDraftKings+111-148
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.2 BF
Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)11.7%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)11.7%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)11.7%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)11.7%3.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)11.7%3.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)11.7%3.0
7. Jimmy Crooks (L)11.7%2.2
8. Nolan Gorman (L)11.7%2.0
9. Nathan Church (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-175+125
DKDraftKings-171+128
We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.2 BF
Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)11.7%3.0
2. Corey Seager (L)11.7%3.0
3. Josh Jung (R)11.7%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)11.7%3.0
5. Wyatt Langford (R)11.7%3.0
6. Ezequiel Duran (R)11.7%3.0
7. Jake Burger (R)11.7%2.2
8. Evan Carter (L)11.7%2.0
9. Kyle Higashioka (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135-110
BOVBovada-150+110
DKDraftKings-138+104
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.4 BF
Expected batters faced24.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jarren Duran (L)11.7%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)11.7%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)11.7%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)11.7%3.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)11.7%3.0
6. Mickey Gasper (L)11.7%3.0
7. Caleb Durbin (R)11.7%2.4
8. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)11.7%2.0
9. Marcelo Mayer (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
BOVBovada+115-155
DKDraftKings+115-153
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.7 BF
Expected batters faced24.7
From recent starts3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Byron Buxton (R)11.7%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L)11.7%3.0
3. Ryan Kreidler (R)11.7%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)11.7%3.0
5. Austin Martin (R)11.7%3.0
6. Victor Caratini (L)11.7%3.0
7. Royce Lewis (R)11.7%2.7
8. Luke Keaschall (R)11.7%2.0
9. Tristan Gray (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings-102-130
FANFanatics-110-130
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload26.0 BF
Expected batters faced26.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)11.7%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
3. Maikel Garcia (R)11.7%3.0
4. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)11.7%3.0
5. Salvador Perez (R)11.7%3.0
6. Jac Caglianone (L)11.7%3.0
7. Michael Massey (L)11.7%3.0
8. Isaac Collins (L)11.7%3.0
9. Tyler Tolbert (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135-105
BOVBovada-135-105
DKDraftKings-137+103
FANFanatics-135-105
We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
28 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Colin ReaP
CHC@COL· proj #14
7ERFinal
2
Robert GasserP
MIL@ATH· proj #6
6ERFinal
T2
Freddy PeraltaP
NYMvsSTL· proj #26
6ERFinal
4
Kai-Wei TengP
HOU@LAA· proj #3
5ERFinal
T4
J.T. GinnP
ATHvsMIL· proj #8
5ERFinal
T4
Taj BradleyP
MIN@DET· proj #24
5ERFinal
7
Zac GallenP
AZ@MIA· proj #9
4ERFinal
T7
Payton TolleP
BOS@TB· proj #19
4ERFinal
T7
Troy MeltonP
DETvsMIN· proj #29
4ERFinal
T7
Nathan EovaldiP
TEX@KC· proj #30
4ERFinal
11
Trevor RogersP
BALvsSEA· proj #5
3ERFinal
T11
Adrian HouserP
SFvsWSH· proj #10
3ERFinal
T11
Tomoyuki SuganoP
COLvsCHC· proj #12
3ERFinal
T11
Grant HolmesP
ATL@CWS· proj #15
3ERFinal
T11
Nick MartinezP
TBvsBOS· proj #28
3ERFinal
16
Brandon EisertP
CWSvsATL· proj #1
2ERFinal
T16
Andrew AlvarezP
WSH@SF· proj #2
2ERFinal
T16
Eric LauerP
LAD@PIT· proj #7
2ERFinal
T16
Slade CecconiP
CLEvsNYY· proj #11
2ERFinal
T16
Gerrit ColeP
NYY@CLE· proj #16
2ERFinal
T16
Chase BurnsP
CIN@SD· proj #18
2ERFinal
T16
Paul SkenesP
PITvsLAD· proj #21
2ERFinal
T16
Max MeyerP
MIAvsAZ· proj #22
2ERFinal
24
Lucas GiolitoP
SDvsCIN· proj #4
1ERFinal
T24
Logan GilbertP
SEA@BAL· proj #17
1ERFinal
T24
Zack WheelerP
PHI@TOR· proj #20
1ERFinal
T24
Dylan CeaseP
TORvsPHI· proj #23
1ERFinal
T24
Stephen KolekP
KCvsTEX· proj #27
1ERFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
2/367%
season 52%+15 pts-4% ROI
Top 10
5/863%
season 52%+11 pts-6% ROI
Top 20
9/1850%
season building
Top 50
15/2854%
season building
Full slate
15/2854%
season 49%+5 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Tuesday, June 9, 2026
Brandon Eisert (CWS) is the top earned runs spot on the Tuesday, June 9, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER, with Andrew Alvarez (WSH) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Brandon Eisert
Brandon Eisert (CWS) tops the Tuesday, June 9, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER vs ATL. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Andrew Alvarez (WSH) (55) — about 1.9 ER vs SF.
Kai-Wei Teng (HOU) (50) — about 2.0 ER vs LAA.
Lucas Giolito (SD) (33) — about 2.3 ER vs CIN.
Trevor Rogers (BAL) (28) — about 2.4 ER vs SEA.
Robert Gasser (MIL) (25) — about 2.5 ER vs ATH.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 3.3 ER. Brandon Eisert finished with 2. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Tuesday, June 9, 2026)?
Brandon Eisert (CWS) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER against ATL.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Tuesday, June 9, 2026: Brandon Eisert (~1.0 ER), Andrew Alvarez (~1.9 ER), Kai-Wei Teng (~2.0 ER), Lucas Giolito (~2.3 ER), Trevor Rogers (~2.4 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
