MatchWiz Plays
Earned Runs · Sunday, June 21, 2026

WSH @ TB Earned Runs matchups · Sunday, June 21, 2026

WSH
WSH
Washington Nationals
34
Final
TB
Tampa Bay Rays
TB
Tropicana FieldElevation 15 ftCenter Field 404 ft 72°F DomeWind 0 mph, None

WSH Andrew Alvarez · LHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB12.9%
vs RHB7.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload17.3 BF

Expected batters faced17.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-185+130
FANFanatics-180+125

We project 1.5 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

TB lineup · K rate vs LHPExp PA
1Yandy Díaz (R)13.1%2.0 PA
2Jonny DeLuca (R)12.6%2.0 PA
3Jonathan Aranda (L)10.0%2.0 PA
4Junior Caminero (R)12.6%2.0 PA
5Ryan Vilade (R)10.7%2.0 PA
6Ben Williamson (R)13.2%2.0 PA
7Chandler Simpson (L)10.0%2.0 PA
8Nick Fortes (R)12.0%2.0 PA
9Taylor Walls (R)10.0%1.3 PA

TB Nick Martinez · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.9%
vs RHB8.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.8 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings-102-130

We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

WSH lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1James Wood (L)18.6%3.0 PA
2Luis García Jr. (L)13.2%3.0 PA
3Curtis Mead (R)12.0%3.0 PA
4CJ Abrams (L)15.1%3.0 PA
5Daylen Lile (L)13.9%3.0 PA
6Dylan Crews (R)11.7%2.8 PA
7José Tena (L)11.8%2.0 PA
8Drew Millas (L)11.8%2.0 PA
9Nasim Nuñez (L)12.3%2.0 PA