Best MLB earned runs matchups — Sunday, June 21, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, June 21, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.9 BF
Expected batters faced9.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection0.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Wyatt Langford (R)13.7%1.9
2. Josh Jung (R)12.7%1.0
3. Brandon Nimmo (L)10.0%1.0
4. Jake Burger (R)11.1%1.0
5. Joc Pederson (L)11.8%1.0
6. Ezequiel Duran (R)10.4%1.0
7. Alejandro Osuna (L)12.4%1.0
8. Kyle Higashioka (R)12.4%1.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+150-220
We project 0.8 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate6.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB7.3%
vs RHB7.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)12.2%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)11.3%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)13.5%3.0
4. Jared Young (L)11.9%3.0
5. A.J. Ewing (L)12.5%3.0
6. Marcus Semien (R)10.5%2.8
7. Brett Baty (L)9.4%2.0
8. Francisco Alvarez (R)10.2%2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)11.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
DKDraftKings-162+122
We project 1.9 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload18.9 BF
Expected batters faced18.9
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)10.8%2.9
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)11.7%2.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)15.4%2.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)11.2%2.0
5. Pavin Smith (L)10.4%2.0
6. Nolan Arenado (R)9.8%2.0
7. Ildemaro Vargas (L)11.7%2.0
8. Jorge Barrosa (L)8.8%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)11.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-165
DKDraftKings+125-167
We project 2.0 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.9%
vs RHB8.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (L)10.6%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)11.0%3.0
3. Mickey Gasper (L)10.9%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)11.6%3.0
5. Jarren Duran (L)11.2%3.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)11.2%2.2
7. Marcelo Mayer (L)9.2%2.0
8. Connor Wong (R)10.4%2.0
9. Nate Eaton (R)12.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+100
DKDraftKings-140+106
FANFanatics-125-115
We project 2.1 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.9%
vs RHB7.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload17.3 BF
Expected batters faced17.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)13.1%2.0
2. Jonny DeLuca (R)12.6%2.0
3. Jonathan Aranda (L)10.0%2.0
4. Junior Caminero (R)12.6%2.0
5. Ryan Vilade (R)10.7%2.0
6. Ben Williamson (R)13.2%2.0
7. Chandler Simpson (L)10.0%2.0
8. Nick Fortes (R)12.0%2.0
9. Taylor Walls (R)10.0%1.3
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-185+130
FANFanatics-180+125
We project 1.5 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate7.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.3%
vs RHB7.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)24.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)15.4%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)10.8%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)11.2%3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)12.7%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)14.4%3.0
6. Matt Shaw (R)11.5%2.7
7. Nico Hoerner (R)8.1%2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R)9.3%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)12.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
We project 2.1 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate7.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.5%
vs RHB7.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ben Rice (L)16.4%3.0
2. Jasson Domínguez (L)12.6%3.0
3. Cody Bellinger (L)14.0%3.0
4. Spencer Jones (L)11.7%3.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)14.0%2.8
6. José Caballero (R)11.0%2.0
7. Ryan McMahon (L)11.3%2.0
8. Austin Wells (L)11.1%2.0
9. Anthony Volpe (R)12.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
DKDraftKings+120-160
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 2.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.6%
vs RHB9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)11.6%3.0
2. Cal Raleigh (R)10.3%3.0
3. Julio Rodríguez (R)12.6%3.0
4. Josh Naylor (L)10.8%3.0
5. Rob Refsnyder (R)10.7%3.0
6. Dominic Canzone (L)9.1%2.9
7. Victor Robles (R)11.3%2.0
8. Weston Wilson (R)12.3%2.0
9. Cole Young (L)9.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+120
DKDraftKings-158+119
We project 2.4 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.6%
vs RHB9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.7 BF
Expected batters faced24.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jakob Marsee (L)11.2%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)14.6%3.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L)11.7%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L)10.7%3.0
5. Heriberto Hernández (R)12.2%3.0
6. Owen Caissie (L)10.7%3.0
7. Leo Jiménez (R)10.5%2.7
8. Joe Mack (L)11.7%2.0
9. Esteury Ruiz (R)13.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
DKDraftKings+101-134
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate7.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB6.7%
vs RHB10.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.3 BF
Expected batters faced24.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)14.7%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)14.4%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)15.0%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)11.0%3.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)13.0%3.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)11.9%3.0
7. Jimmy Crooks (L)9.4%2.3
8. Blaze Jordan (R)11.7%2.0
9. Nathan Church (L)11.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
FANFanatics-155+110
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.9%
vs RHB9.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zack Gelof (R)13.5%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)13.0%3.0
3. Jacob Wilson (R)10.5%3.0
4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)11.6%3.0
5. Jonah Heim (R)13.9%3.0
6. Joey Meneses (R)10.2%2.3
7. Colby Thomas (R)11.8%2.0
8. Henry Bolte (R)15.1%2.0
9. Max Muncy (R)14.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
BOVBovada-145+105
DKDraftKings-129-103
FANFanatics-155+110
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.7%
vs RHB9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.4 BF
Expected batters faced24.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)13.9%3.0
2. Maikel Garcia (R)11.1%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)13.4%3.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)9.1%3.0
5. Michael Massey (L)10.9%3.0
6. Lane Thomas (R)12.5%3.0
7. Kameron Misner (L)9.7%2.4
8. Nick Loftin (R)11.4%2.0
9. Isaac Collins (L)10.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-110
BOVBovada-105-135
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate14.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.3%
vs RHB16.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload16.1 BF
Expected batters faced16.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)14.1%2.0
2. Wade Meckler (L)13.3%2.0
3. Jo Adell (R)13.5%2.0
4. Nolan Schanuel (L)10.7%2.0
5. Denzer Guzman (R)11.2%2.0
6. Christian Moore (R)10.3%2.0
7. Donovan Walton (L)11.7%2.0
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)10.3%1.1
9. Jose Siri (R)14.5%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings+103-136
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate13.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.6%
vs RHB12.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload16.9 BF
Expected batters faced16.9
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)13.9%2.0
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)14.1%2.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)11.5%2.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)12.2%2.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)13.8%2.0
6. Willy Adames (R)12.6%2.0
7. Matt Chapman (R)11.6%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)12.6%1.9
9. Daniel Susac (R)8.1%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-120
DKDraftKings-114-116
FANFanatics-120-120
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB7.7%
vs RHB12.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.2 BF
Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Blake Dunn (R)11.3%3.0
2. JJ Bleday (L)14.2%3.0
3. Sal Stewart (R)12.2%3.0
4. Nathaniel Lowe (L)10.0%3.0
5. Spencer Steer (R)12.6%2.2
6. Eugenio Suárez (R)10.7%2.0
7. Noelvi Marte (R)10.0%2.0
8. Tyler Stephenson (R)9.2%2.0
9. Edwin Arroyo (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
DKDraftKings+111-147
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.1%
vs RHB9.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.0 BF
Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)15.7%3.0
2. Andrew Benintendi (L)12.9%3.0
3. Colson Montgomery (L)13.0%3.0
4. Chase Meidroth (R)11.3%2.0
5. Braden Montgomery (L)11.7%2.0
6. Jacob Gonzalez (L)11.7%2.0
7. Edgar Quero (L)8.5%2.0
8. Tristan Peters (L)13.3%2.0
9. Luisangel Acuña (R)12.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-160
DKDraftKings+113-151
FANFanatics+115-165
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)14.8%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)16.9%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)15.1%3.0
4. Royce Lewis (R)9.7%3.0
5. Brooks Lee (L)11.8%3.0
6. Luke Keaschall (R)12.6%2.0
7. Ryan Kreidler (R)13.6%2.0
8. Kyler Fedko (R)11.7%2.0
9. Alex Jackson (R)14.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.9%
vs RHB10.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.1 BF
Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)14.2%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)15.1%3.0
3. Christian Walker (R)11.8%3.0
4. Isaac Paredes (R)11.0%3.0
5. Jose Altuve (R)11.8%2.1
6. Joey Loperfido (L)13.3%2.0
7. Cam Smith (R)10.4%2.0
8. Raynel Delgado (L)11.7%2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)11.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-125
DKDraftKings-107-123
FANFanatics-115-125
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.4%
vs RHB10.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.0 BF
Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Mauricio Dubón (R)10.3%3.0
2. Drake Baldwin (L)14.2%3.0
3. Ozzie Albies (R)10.3%3.0
4. Matt Olson (L)14.2%3.0
5. Michael Harris II (L)11.6%2.0
6. Austin Riley (R)10.5%2.0
7. Joey Bart (R)12.7%2.0
8. Eli White (R)11.6%2.0
9. Ha-Seong Kim (R)9.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
DKDraftKings-109-121
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.3%
vs RHB10.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)9.8%3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)14.5%3.0
3. Kazuma Okamoto (R)11.3%3.0
4. Alejandro Kirk (R)11.5%3.0
5. Daulton Varsho (L)10.9%3.0
6. Ernie Clement (R)13.3%2.5
7. Davis Schneider (R)13.1%2.0
8. Jesús Sánchez (L)9.3%2.0
9. Myles Straw (R)10.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+130-190
FANFanatics+130-185
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.9%
vs RHB8.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)18.6%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)13.2%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)12.0%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)15.1%3.0
5. Daylen Lile (L)13.9%3.0
6. Dylan Crews (R)11.7%2.8
7. José Tena (L)11.8%2.0
8. Drew Millas (L)11.8%2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (L)12.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings-102-130
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB11.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)14.9%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)13.9%3.0
3. Kerry Carpenter (L)11.3%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)12.2%3.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)12.0%3.0
6. Colt Keith (L)12.7%2.5
7. James Outman (L)10.9%2.0
8. Trei Cruz (L)11.7%2.0
9. Zach McKinstry (L)9.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-120
DKDraftKings-107-123
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate13.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB15.3%
vs RHB9.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.2 BF
Expected batters faced20.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)10.4%3.0
2. Kyle Manzardo (L)11.1%3.0
3. Brayan Rocchio (L)9.8%2.2
4. Gabriel Arias (R)10.3%2.0
5. Daniel Schneemann (L)10.4%2.0
6. Kahlil Watson (L)11.7%2.0
7. Steven Kwan (L)11.3%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)9.7%2.0
9. Petey Halpin (L)11.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-160
DKDraftKings+127-170
We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.4%
vs RHB10.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.9 BF
Expected batters faced25.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Samad Taylor (R)14.6%3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L)11.6%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)11.0%3.0
4. Gavin Sheets (L)12.1%3.0
5. Will Wagner (L)11.8%3.0
6. Xander Bogaerts (R)10.8%3.0
7. Ty France (R)9.7%3.0
8. Sung-Mun Song (L)12.4%2.9
9. Rodolfo Durán (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+125-185
BOVBovada+135-175
DKDraftKings+133-177
FANFanatics+125-180
We project 3.0 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.4%
vs RHB11.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Spencer Horwitz (L)12.2%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)14.3%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)14.2%3.0
4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)11.2%3.0
5. Nick Gonzales (R)11.7%2.5
6. Endy Rodríguez (L)12.4%2.0
7. Tyler Callihan (L)12.8%2.0
8. Jake Mangum (L)10.4%2.0
9. Jared Triolo (R)10.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
DKDraftKings+110-146
We project 3.2 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.4%
vs RHB11.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.7 BF
Expected batters faced20.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)13.1%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)13.5%3.0
3. Pete Alonso (R)14.3%2.7
4. Samuel Basallo (L)12.2%2.0
5. Coby Mayo (R)11.2%2.0
6. Colton Cowser (L)13.2%2.0
7. Leody Taveras (L)12.1%2.0
8. Blaze Alexander (R)12.0%2.0
9. Jeremiah Jackson (R)13.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-200+140
FANFanatics-180+125
We project 2.8 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.7%
vs RHB11.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness14.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)16.6%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)14.6%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)16.4%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)12.7%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)16.5%3.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L)15.2%2.9
7. Sal Frelick (L)11.1%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)11.7%2.0
9. David Hamilton (L)13.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-118
DKDraftKings-111-119
We project 3.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate14.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.0%
vs RHB14.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)5.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.4 BF
Expected batters faced20.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)14.7%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)13.5%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)11.2%2.4
4. Alec Bohm (R)8.6%2.0
5. Edmundo Sosa (R)12.0%2.0
6. Brandon Marsh (L)11.7%2.0
7. J.T. Realmuto (R)9.2%2.0
8. Derek Hill (R)11.4%2.0
9. Bryson Stott (L)11.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+105
DKDraftKings-127-104
FANFanatics-150+105
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.4%
vs RHB10.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.2 BF
Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)16.4%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)13.5%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)14.2%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)14.5%3.0
5. Max Muncy (L)15.5%3.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L)14.0%3.0
7. Ryan Ward (L)13.0%2.2
8. Alex Freeland (L)10.6%2.0
9. Chuckie Robinson (R)10.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings+110-146
We project 2.9 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB16.8%
vs RHB7.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.0 BF
Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)12.6%3.0
2. Willi Castro (L)13.4%3.0
3. TJ Rumfield (L)13.0%3.0
4. Tyler Freeman (R)11.7%2.0
5. Cole Carrigg (L)11.7%2.0
6. Edouard Julien (L)11.2%2.0
7. Sterlin Thompson (L)11.7%2.0
8. Kyle Karros (R)14.6%2.0
9. Brett Sullivan (L)10.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-130
DKDraftKings-117-113
FANFanatics-110-130
We project 3.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
26 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Stephen KolekP
KCvsSTL· proj #10
9ERFinal
2
Bryce ElderP
ATLvsMIL· proj #27
8ERFinal
3
Dustin MayP
STL@KC· proj #12
6ERFinal
T3
Emmet SheehanP
LADvsBAL· proj #26
6ERFinal
5
Reid DetmersP
LAA@ATH· proj #11
5ERFinal
6
Jack PerkinsP
ATHvsLAA· proj #13
4ERFinal
T6
Michael LorenzenP
COLvsPIT· proj #25
4ERFinal
T6
David PetersonP
NYM@PHI· proj #28
4ERFinal
9
Payton TolleP
BOS@SEA· proj #8
3ERFinal
T9
Elmer RodríguezP
NYYvsCIN· proj #15
3ERFinal
T9
Keider MonteroP
DETvsCWS· proj #16
3ERFinal
T9
Nick MartinezP
TBvsWSH· proj #21
3ERFinal
T9
Nathan EovaldiP
TEXvsSD· proj #24
3ERFinal
14
Zack WheelerP
PHIvsNYM· proj #2
2ERFinal
T14
Mike ParedesP
MIN@AZ· proj #3
2ERFinal
T14
Logan WebbP
SF@MIA· proj #9
2ERFinal
T14
Slade CecconiP
CLE@HOU· proj #18
2ERFinal
T14
Robert GasserP
MIL@ATL· proj #19
2ERFinal
19
Logan GilbertP
SEAvsBOS· proj #4
1ERFinal
T19
Andrew AlvarezP
WSH@TB· proj #5
1ERFinal
T19
Chase BurnsP
CIN@NYY· proj #7
1ERFinal
T19
Ryan GustoP
MIAvsSF· proj #14
1ERFinal
T19
Davis MartinP
CWS@DET· proj #22
1ERFinal
T19
Kai-Wei TengP
HOUvsCLE· proj #23
1ERFinal
T19
Brandon YoungP
BAL@LAD· proj #29
1ERFinal
T19
Jared JonesP
PIT@COL· proj #30
1ERFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
2/540%
season 52%-12 pts-4% ROI
Top 10
5/956%
season 52%+4 pts-6% ROI
Top 20
7/1741%
season building
Top 50
13/2748%
season building
Full slate
13/2748%
season 49%-1 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Sunday, June 21, 2026
Wandy Peralta (SD) is the top earned runs spot on the Sunday, June 21, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 0.8 ER, with Zack Wheeler (PHI) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Wandy Peralta
Wandy Peralta (SD) tops the Sunday, June 21, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 0.8 ER vs TEX. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Zack Wheeler (PHI) (100) — about 1.9 ER vs NYM.
Mike Paredes (MIN) (100) — about 2.0 ER vs AZ.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) (76) — about 2.1 ER vs BOS.
Andrew Alvarez (WSH) (74) — about 1.5 ER vs TB.
Dylan Cease (TOR) (51) — about 2.1 ER vs CHC.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 2.3 ER. Wandy Peralta finished with 0. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Sunday, June 21, 2026)?
Wandy Peralta (SD) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 0.8 ER against TEX.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Sunday, June 21, 2026: Wandy Peralta (~0.8 ER), Zack Wheeler (~1.9 ER), Mike Paredes (~2.0 ER), Logan Gilbert (~2.1 ER), Andrew Alvarez (~1.5 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
