MatchWiz Plays
Earned Runs · Monday, June 22, 2026

AZ @ STL Earned Runs matchups · Monday, June 22, 2026

AZ
AZ
Arizona Diamondbacks
23
Final
STL
St. Louis Cardinals
STL
Busch StadiumElevation 460 ftCenter Field 400 ft 71°F CloudyWind 6 mph, In From LF

AZ Merrill Kelly · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate13.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB14.7%
vs RHB10.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload25.5 BF

Expected batters faced25.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-145+105
DKDraftKings-138+104
FANFanatics-140+100

We project 3.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

STL lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1JJ Wetherholt (L)15.9%3.0 PA
2Iván Herrera (R)15.6%3.0 PA
3Alec Burleson (L)14.5%3.0 PA
4Jordan Walker (R)10.8%3.0 PA
5Lars Nootbaar (L)13.1%3.0 PA
6Masyn Winn (R)12.3%3.0 PA
7Jimmy Crooks (L)8.8%3.0 PA
8Blaze Jordan (R)11.7%2.5 PA
9Nathan Church (L)13.4%2.0 PA

STL Andre Pallante · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.2% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.5%
vs RHB10.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.4 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
DKDraftKings+109-145

We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

AZ lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Ketel Marte (L)10.6%3.0 PA
2Geraldo Perdomo (L)12.4%3.0 PA
3Corbin Carroll (L)14.8%3.0 PA
4Pavin Smith (L)10.2%3.0 PA
5Nolan Arenado (R)10.1%3.0 PA
6Adrian Del Castillo (L)10.9%2.0 PA
7Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)9.4%2.0 PA
8Tommy Troy (R)12.7%2.0 PA
9Tim Tawa (R)10.0%2.0 PA