Best MLB earned runs matchups — Monday, June 22, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Monday, June 22, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 1 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
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#Pitcher · MatchupScore
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB7.1%
vs RHB12.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.1 BF
Expected batters faced9.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)12.2%1.1
2. Curtis Mead (R)14.6%1.0
3. Dylan Crews (R)13.8%1.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)12.5%1.0
5. Jacob Young (R)12.9%1.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)10.0%1.0
7. Keibert Ruiz (R)12.2%1.0
8. Luis García Jr. (L)10.6%1.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (R)13.6%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140
We project 1.0 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.9%
vs RHB8.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.5 BF
Expected batters faced9.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)14.9%1.4
2. Byron Buxton (R)16.3%1.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)13.4%1.0
4. Josh Bell (L)14.5%1.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)10.3%1.0
6. Victor Caratini (L)11.7%1.0
7. Brooks Lee (L)13.2%1.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R)14.2%1.0
9. Ryan Kreidler (R)16.4%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB15.9%
vs RHB8.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload17.8 BF
Expected batters faced17.8
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)13.2%2.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)10.3%2.0
3. Pete Alonso (R)12.0%2.0
4. Coby Mayo (R)14.5%2.0
5. Tyler O'Neill (R)11.9%2.0
6. Blaze Alexander (R)10.4%2.0
7. Colton Cowser (L)9.7%2.0
8. Jeremiah Jackson (R)10.6%2.0
9. Sam Huff (R)12.3%1.8
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB7.9%
vs RHB12.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.1 BF
Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Blake Dunn (R)11.7%3.0
2. JJ Bleday (L)14.4%3.0
3. Sal Stewart (R)11.5%3.0
4. Nathaniel Lowe (L)10.8%2.1
5. Spencer Steer (R)12.8%2.0
6. Eugenio Suárez (R)10.4%2.0
7. Noelvi Marte (R)10.3%2.0
8. Tyler Stephenson (R)9.6%2.0
9. Matt McLain (R)10.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-160
DKDraftKings+121-161
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate7.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB7.5%
vs RHB9.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.2 BF
Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)13.1%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)11.7%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)12.6%3.0
4. Alejandro Kirk (R)8.8%3.0
5. Daulton Varsho (L)13.4%2.2
6. Kazuma Okamoto (R)13.3%2.0
7. Jesús Sánchez (L)11.3%2.0
8. Ernie Clement (R)11.1%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)10.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+125-175
DKDraftKings+110-146
We project 2.0 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.7%
vs RHB10.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload17.7 BF
Expected batters faced17.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)11.4%2.0
2. Wyatt Langford (R)12.8%2.0
3. Josh Jung (R)11.3%2.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)10.0%2.0
5. Jake Burger (R)11.2%2.0
6. Ezequiel Duran (R)12.5%2.0
7. Alejandro Osuna (L)10.6%2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R)14.1%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)10.8%1.7
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BOVBovada+105-145
DKDraftKings+105-139
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 2.0 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate7.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.3%
vs RHB7.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)24.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)14.5%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)15.7%3.0
3. Christian Walker (R)11.8%3.0
4. Isaac Paredes (R)10.7%3.0
5. Jose Altuve (R)11.6%3.0
6. Yainer Diaz (R)9.8%2.7
7. Joey Loperfido (L)12.4%2.0
8. Jake Meyers (R)11.4%2.0
9. Raynel Delgado (L)10.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+115
DKDraftKings-161+121
FANFanatics-165+115
We project 2.1 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate7.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.1%
vs RHB6.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)14.8%3.0
2. Maikel Garcia (R)11.1%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)16.1%3.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)9.5%3.0
5. Michael Massey (L)11.0%3.0
6. Lane Thomas (R)12.1%2.2
7. John Rave (L)13.0%2.0
8. Nick Loftin (R)12.3%2.0
9. Isaac Collins (L)11.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-110
DKDraftKings-114-116
We project 2.1 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.6%
vs RHB11.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.8 BF
Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)10.0%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)14.8%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)10.5%3.0
4. Josh Bell (R)11.0%2.8
5. Royce Lewis (R)13.0%2.0
6. Victor Caratini (R)10.0%2.0
7. Brooks Lee (R)9.9%2.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R)11.8%2.0
9. Ryan Kreidler (R)12.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.5%
vs RHB13.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.0 BF
Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Mickey Gasper (L)10.3%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)11.1%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)11.7%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)11.1%2.0
5. Jarren Duran (L)11.2%2.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)12.6%2.0
7. Masataka Yoshida (L)9.2%2.0
8. Anthony Seigler (L)10.9%2.0
9. Marcelo Mayer (L)8.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-165
DKDraftKings+123-163
We project 2.4 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.2%
vs RHB9.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)16.3%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)14.8%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)10.8%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)8.6%3.0
5. Edmundo Sosa (R)11.9%3.0
6. Brandon Marsh (L)11.2%2.0
7. Derek Hill (R)10.8%2.0
8. Bryson Stott (L)12.5%2.0
9. Rafael Marchán (R)10.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-118
BOVBovada-140+100
FANFanatics-120-120
We project 2.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.0 BF
Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Willi Castro (R)11.3%3.0
2. Tyler Freeman (R)13.7%3.0
3. TJ Rumfield (L)8.8%3.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)11.7%3.0
5. Cole Carrigg (R)11.7%2.0
6. Jake McCarthy (L)8.8%2.0
7. Braxton Fulford (R)11.7%2.0
8. Kyle Karros (R)12.8%2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+115
DKDraftKings-162+122
FANFanatics-155+110
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.9%
vs RHB10.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.6 BF
Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)14.6%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)14.7%3.0
3. Kerry Carpenter (L)10.7%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)12.6%3.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)11.3%2.6
6. Colt Keith (L)12.9%2.0
7. James Outman (L)10.8%2.0
8. Hao-Yu Lee (R)8.7%2.0
9. Zach McKinstry (L)9.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-150
BOVBovada+120-160
DKDraftKings+120-160
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.5%
vs RHB10.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)10.6%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)12.4%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)14.8%3.0
4. Pavin Smith (L)10.2%3.0
5. Nolan Arenado (R)10.1%3.0
6. Adrian Del Castillo (L)10.9%2.0
7. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)9.4%2.0
8. Tommy Troy (R)12.7%2.0
9. Tim Tawa (R)10.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
DKDraftKings+109-145
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.3%
vs RHB12.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)10.9%3.0
2. David Fry (R)10.1%3.0
3. Brayan Rocchio (R)10.8%3.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)11.4%3.0
5. Kyle Manzardo (L)10.0%2.5
6. Gabriel Arias (R)9.7%2.0
7. Stuart Fairchild (R)14.0%2.0
8. Austin Hedges (R)10.4%2.0
9. Petey Halpin (L)11.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
DKDraftKings+132-176
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.9%
vs RHB10.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Amed Rosario (R)10.5%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)11.0%3.0
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)13.7%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)13.0%3.0
5. Anthony Volpe (R)13.8%3.0
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)12.1%2.9
7. Jasson Domínguez (R)10.8%2.0
8. José Caballero (R)13.7%2.0
9. Ali Sánchez (R)9.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-130
BOVBovada+105-145
DKDraftKings+106-140
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.3%
vs RHB11.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.7 BF
Expected batters faced21.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness14.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)17.0%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)13.8%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)15.4%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)13.8%2.7
5. Jake Bauers (L)15.4%2.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L)15.7%2.0
7. Sal Frelick (L)11.4%2.0
8. Joey Ortiz (R)12.0%2.0
9. David Hamilton (L)13.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+120
FANFanatics-165+115
We project 3.0 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.5%
vs RHB10.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.2 BF
Expected batters faced25.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)11.4%3.0
2. Jonny DeLuca (R)13.3%3.0
3. Jonathan Aranda (L)12.3%3.0
4. Junior Caminero (R)11.8%3.0
5. Ryan Vilade (R)10.9%3.0
6. Chandler Simpson (L)11.7%3.0
7. Ben Williamson (R)10.8%3.0
8. Nick Fortes (R)9.5%2.2
9. Richie Palacios (L)12.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-115
DKDraftKings-137+103
FANFanatics-125-115
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.8%
vs RHB9.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.2 BF
Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Heriberto Hernández (R)11.6%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)14.5%3.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L)12.3%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L)10.4%3.0
5. Jakob Marsee (L)10.5%2.2
6. Esteury Ruiz (R)13.7%2.0
7. Griffin Conine (L)12.8%2.0
8. Javier Sanoja (R)10.4%2.0
9. Joe Mack (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.7%
vs RHB12.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.3 BF
Expected batters faced21.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)12.4%3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L)12.1%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)11.7%3.0
4. Gavin Sheets (L)12.9%2.3
5. Ty France (R)10.9%2.0
6. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.8%2.0
7. Will Wagner (L)10.8%2.0
8. Rodolfo Durán (R)11.8%2.0
9. Samad Taylor (R)15.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-160
BOVBovada+120-160
DKDraftKings+129-171
FANFanatics+115-165
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.8%
vs RHB10.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Mauricio Dubón (R)9.7%3.0
2. Drake Baldwin (L)14.3%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)12.9%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (L)16.9%3.0
5. Michael Harris II (L)13.3%3.0
6. Austin Riley (R)9.8%2.5
7. Dominic Smith (L)11.7%2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)11.3%2.0
9. Jorge Mateo (R)16.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-160
BOVBovada+125-165
DKDraftKings+117-156
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.8%
vs RHB11.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.3 BF
Expected batters faced24.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)15.5%3.0
2. Miguel Vargas (R)13.7%3.0
3. Andrew Benintendi (L)12.2%3.0
4. Kyle Teel (L)13.2%3.0
5. Colson Montgomery (L)11.8%3.0
6. Chase Meidroth (R)10.7%3.0
7. Braden Montgomery (L)11.7%2.3
8. Tristan Peters (L)13.5%2.0
9. Luisangel Acuña (R)12.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-160
FANFanatics+115-165
We project 3.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate13.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB14.7%
vs RHB10.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.5 BF
Expected batters faced25.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)15.9%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)15.6%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)14.5%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)10.8%3.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)13.1%3.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)12.3%3.0
7. Jimmy Crooks (L)8.8%3.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)11.7%2.5
9. Nathan Church (L)13.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-145+105
DKDraftKings-138+104
FANFanatics-140+100
We project 3.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.8%
vs RHB11.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)15.1%3.0
2. Nolan Schanuel (L)10.9%3.0
3. Jo Adell (R)14.1%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)11.7%3.0
5. Wade Meckler (L)12.9%3.0
6. Denzer Guzman (R)12.3%2.9
7. Donovan Walton (L)13.1%2.0
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)10.8%2.0
9. Jose Siri (R)15.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+125-165
DKDraftKings+113-150
FANFanatics+120-170
We project 3.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate13.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.6%
vs RHB12.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.7 BF
Expected batters faced24.7
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)17.0%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)12.8%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)13.5%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)14.9%3.0
5. Max Muncy (L)15.0%3.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L)14.2%3.0
7. Tommy Edman (L)10.1%2.7
8. Dalton Rushing (L)12.3%2.0
9. Ryan Ward (L)12.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+120
FANFanatics-165+115
We project 3.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
18 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Sam AldegheriP
LAAvsBAL· proj #3
5ERFinal
T1
Gerrit ColeP
NYY@DET· proj #13
5ERFinal
3
Merrill KellyP
AZ@STL· proj #23
3ERFinal
4
Tyler PhillipsP
MIAvsTEX· proj #6
2ERFinal
T4
Dylan CeaseP
TORvsHOU· proj #7
2ERFinal
T4
Drew RasmussenP
TBvsKC· proj #8
2ERFinal
T4
Ryan FeltnerP
COLvsBOS· proj #10
2ERFinal
T4
Kumar RockerP
TEX@MIA· proj #19
2ERFinal
T4
Gavin WilliamsP
CLE@CWS· proj #22
2ERFinal
T4
Zebby MatthewsP
MINvsLAD· proj #25
2ERFinal
11
Tim MayzaP
PHI@WSH· proj #1
1ERFinal
T11
Will KleinP
LAD@MIN· proj #2
1ERFinal
T11
Hunter BrownP
HOU@TOR· proj #5
1ERFinal
T11
Foster GriffinP
WSHvsPHI· proj #11
1ERFinal
T11
Andre PallanteP
STLvsAZ· proj #14
1ERFinal
T11
Framber ValdezP
DETvsNYY· proj #16
1ERFinal
T11
Michael WachaP
KC@TB· proj #18
1ERFinal
T11
Grant HolmesP
ATL@SD· proj #20
1ERFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
3/3100%
season 52%+48 pts-4% ROI
Top 10
7/7100%
season 52%+48 pts-6% ROI
Top 20
11/1765%
season building
Top 50
12/2255%
season building
Full slate
12/2255%
season 49%+6 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Monday, June 22, 2026
Tim Mayza (PHI) is the top earned runs spot on the Monday, June 22, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER, with Will Klein (LAD) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Tim Mayza
Tim Mayza (PHI) tops the Monday, June 22, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER vs WSH. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Will Klein (LAD) (100) — about 1.1 ER vs MIN.
Sam Aldegheri (LAA) (100) — about 1.9 ER vs BAL.
Brandon Woodruff (MIL) (70) — about 2.5 ER vs CIN.
Hunter Brown (HOU) (66) — about 2.0 ER vs TOR.
Tyler Phillips (MIA) (66) — about 2.0 ER vs TEX.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 1.6 ER. Tim Mayza finished with 1. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Monday, June 22, 2026)?
Tim Mayza (PHI) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER against WSH.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Monday, June 22, 2026: Tim Mayza (~1.0 ER), Will Klein (~1.1 ER), Sam Aldegheri (~1.9 ER), Brandon Woodruff (~2.5 ER), Hunter Brown (~2.0 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
