MatchWiz Plays
Earned Runs · Monday, June 22, 2026

ATL @ SD Earned Runs matchups · Monday, June 22, 2026

ATL
ATL
Atlanta Braves
01
Final
SD
San Diego Padres
SD
Petco ParkElevation 23 ftCenter Field 396 ft 69°F ClearWind 8 mph, L To R

ATL Grant Holmes · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.0% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.7%
vs RHB12.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.3 BF

Expected batters faced21.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-160
BOVBovada+120-160
DKDraftKings+129-171
FANFanatics+115-165

We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

SD lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)12.4%3.0 PA
2Jackson Merrill (L)12.1%3.0 PA
3Manny Machado (R)11.7%3.0 PA
4Gavin Sheets (L)12.9%2.3 PA
5Ty France (R)10.9%2.0 PA
6Xander Bogaerts (R)11.8%2.0 PA
7Will Wagner (L)10.8%2.0 PA
8Rodolfo Durán (R)11.8%2.0 PA
9Samad Taylor (R)15.2%2.0 PA

SD Michael King · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.8%
vs RHB10.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-160
BOVBovada+125-165
DKDraftKings+117-156

We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

ATL lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Mauricio Dubón (R)9.7%3.0 PA
2Drake Baldwin (L)14.3%3.0 PA
3Matt Olson (L)12.9%3.0 PA
4Ozzie Albies (L)16.9%3.0 PA
5Michael Harris II (L)13.3%3.0 PA
6Austin Riley (R)9.8%2.5 PA
7Dominic Smith (L)11.7%2.0 PA
8Mike Yastrzemski (L)11.3%2.0 PA
9Jorge Mateo (R)16.6%2.0 PA