CHC @ NYM Earned Runs matchups · Thursday, June 25, 2026

CHC

Chicago Cubs

4–3

Final

NYM

New York Mets

◆ Citi FieldElevation 10 ftCenter Field 408 ft☀ 76°F Partly CloudyWind 12 mph, Out To LF

Matthew Boyd · LHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB12.8%

vs RHB11.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.1 BF

Expected batters faced21.1

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.8 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-165+120

FANFanatics-170+120

We project 2.8 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

NYM lineup · K rate vs LHPExp PA

1Carson Benge (L)13.6%3.0 PA

2Bo Bichette (R)14.4%3.0 PA

3Juan Soto (L)14.0%3.0 PA

4Mark Vientos (R)12.1%2.1 PA

5Francisco Alvarez (R)9.8%2.0 PA

6A.J. Ewing (L)7.6%2.0 PA

7Ronny Mauricio (R)9.8%2.0 PA

8MJ Melendez (L)10.9%2.0 PA

9Brett Baty (L)12.5%2.0 PA

Freddy Peralta · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate13.9% Runs / BF

vs LHB14.4%

vs RHB11.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.4 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-140

DKDraftKings+105-139

We project 3.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

CHC lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA

1Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)16.0%3.0 PA

2Michael Conforto (L)10.3%3.0 PA

3Michael Busch (L)10.6%3.0 PA

4Alex Bregman (R)10.9%3.0 PA

5Ian Happ (L)15.6%3.0 PA

6Nico Hoerner (R)9.1%2.6 PA

7Pedro Ramírez (L)11.7%2.0 PA

8Miguel Amaya (R)11.9%2.0 PA

9Dansby Swanson (R)14.3%2.0 PA