Best MLB earned runs matchups — Thursday, June 25, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, June 25, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 2 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
⌕
#Pitcher · MatchupScore
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.8 BF
Expected batters faced9.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)14.0%1.8
2. Nick Loftin (R)14.0%1.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)15.5%1.0
4. Lane Thomas (R)11.4%1.0
5. Josh Rojas (L)11.3%1.0
6. Salvador Perez (R)9.3%1.0
7. Isaac Collins (L)10.9%1.0
8. Starling Marte (R)11.9%1.0
9. Tyler Tolbert (R)18.9%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-165
We project 1.3 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.1%
vs RHB8.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)10.3%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)12.0%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)14.2%3.0
4. Adrian Del Castillo (L)10.5%3.0
5. Max Kepler (L)11.7%3.0
6. Pavin Smith (L)9.7%2.2
7. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)8.7%2.0
8. Ildemaro Vargas (L)13.5%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)12.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
DKDraftKings-103-129
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate6.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB6.8%
vs RHB6.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.4 BF
Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Masataka Yoshida (L)9.2%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)10.6%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)10.4%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)11.5%3.0
5. Jarren Duran (L)11.0%3.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)12.4%2.4
7. Anthony Seigler (L)11.8%2.0
8. Carlos Narváez (R)9.2%2.0
9. Marcelo Mayer (L)8.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+120
DKDraftKings-148+112
We project 1.5 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB7.4%
vs RHB10.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.0 BF
Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake Mangum (L)10.6%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)14.1%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)14.2%3.0
4. Nick Gonzales (R)12.1%2.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)10.5%2.0
6. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)11.7%2.0
7. Tyler Callihan (L)12.8%2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R)9.7%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)10.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+125
DKDraftKings-165+124
We project 1.9 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.0%
vs RHB9.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.9 BF
Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)10.0%3.0
2. Ernie Clement (R)12.6%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)14.4%3.0
4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)11.2%3.0
5. Alejandro Kirk (R)11.4%2.9
6. Nathan Lukes (L)9.4%2.0
7. Davis Schneider (R)13.1%2.0
8. Myles Straw (R)9.8%2.0
9. Luis Urías (R)10.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
DKDraftKings-108-123
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate7.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.0%
vs RHB7.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.8 BF
Expected batters faced25.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)12.6%3.0
2. Curtis Mead (R)14.0%3.0
3. Andrés Chaparro (R)13.0%3.0
4. Dylan Crews (R)15.4%3.0
5. Daylen Lile (L)9.9%3.0
6. Jacob Young (R)12.4%3.0
7. Nasim Nuñez (R)14.2%3.0
8. Jorbit Vivas (L)12.8%2.8
9. Keibert Ruiz (R)11.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings-143+107
We project 2.4 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.7%
vs RHB9.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.2 BF
Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)14.7%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)16.4%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)9.9%3.0
4. Christian Walker (R)11.4%3.0
5. Jose Altuve (R)13.0%3.0
6. Joey Loperfido (L)12.6%3.0
7. Cam Smith (R)10.8%2.3
8. Taylor Trammell (L)11.9%2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)10.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-118
DKDraftKings-122-109
FANFanatics-115-125
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.5 BF
Expected batters faced24.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Paul Goldschmidt (R)13.6%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)10.6%3.0
3. Amed Rosario (R)10.4%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)12.7%3.0
5. Jasson Domínguez (R)10.3%3.0
6. Anthony Volpe (R)12.7%3.0
7. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)11.4%2.5
8. José Caballero (R)15.1%2.0
9. Austin Wells (L)9.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-115
DKDraftKings-108-123
FANFanatics-125-115
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.4%
vs RHB10.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.9 BF
Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)11.8%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)12.6%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)12.0%3.0
4. Richie Palacios (L)12.4%3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L)11.8%2.9
6. Cedric Mullins (L)11.0%2.0
7. Taylor Walls (L)12.8%2.0
8. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)13.3%2.0
9. Hunter Feduccia (L)12.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-125
DKDraftKings-104-127
FANFanatics-110-130
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.4%
vs RHB14.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)11.5%3.0
2. Wyatt Langford (R)12.7%3.0
3. Corey Seager (L)13.2%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)11.2%3.0
5. Jake Burger (R)11.5%2.7
6. Ezequiel Duran (R)12.5%2.0
7. Alejandro Osuna (L)10.7%2.0
8. Kyle Higashioka (R)10.5%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)10.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-165
DKDraftKings+117-156
FANFanatics+120-170
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.8%
vs RHB10.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Henry Bolte (R)8.1%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)16.1%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)12.4%3.0
4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)13.9%3.0
5. Jonah Heim (L)10.2%2.5
6. Lawrence Butler (L)13.7%2.0
7. Max Muncy (R)11.5%2.0
8. Jeff McNeil (L)10.5%2.0
9. Alika Williams (R)14.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings-167+125
We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.8%
vs RHB11.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.1 BF
Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)13.6%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)14.4%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)14.0%3.0
4. Mark Vientos (R)12.1%2.1
5. Francisco Alvarez (R)9.8%2.0
6. A.J. Ewing (L)7.6%2.0
7. Ronny Mauricio (R)9.8%2.0
8. MJ Melendez (L)10.9%2.0
9. Brett Baty (L)12.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+120
FANFanatics-170+120
We project 2.8 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate15.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB14.3%
vs RHB13.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.4 BF
Expected batters faced19.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)14.1%3.0
2. Kerry Carpenter (L)11.1%2.4
3. Dillon Dingler (R)14.5%2.0
4. Riley Greene (L)13.7%2.0
5. Colt Keith (L)12.6%2.0
6. Spencer Torkelson (R)10.8%2.0
7. Zach McKinstry (L)9.2%2.0
8. James Outman (L)10.5%2.0
9. Hao-Yu Lee (R)9.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-130
DKDraftKings-121-110
We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)13.4%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)15.0%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)18.3%3.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L)15.1%3.0
5. Alec Bohm (R)10.4%3.0
6. Bryson Stott (L)12.8%2.0
7. J.T. Realmuto (R)12.9%2.0
8. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)7.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-145
DKDraftKings-103-129
FANFanatics+105-150
We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB14.0%
vs RHB7.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.2 BF
Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)11.1%3.0
2. Cal Raleigh (L)11.9%3.0
3. Julio Rodríguez (R)12.0%3.0
4. Josh Naylor (L)10.6%3.0
5. Randy Arozarena (R)14.2%2.2
6. Luke Raley (L)12.2%2.0
7. Cole Young (L)12.3%2.0
8. Mitch Garver (R)11.3%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)12.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140
DKDraftKings-101-132
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate15.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB14.6%
vs RHB14.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.4 BF
Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Matt Chapman (R)13.4%3.0
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)12.1%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)10.5%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)10.1%3.0
5. Willy Adames (R)11.5%2.4
6. Jung Hoo Lee (L)11.8%2.0
7. Victor Bericoto (R)11.7%2.0
8. Daniel Susac (R)9.8%2.0
9. Jonah Cox (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
DKDraftKings+105-139
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 3.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate13.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB14.4%
vs RHB11.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)16.0%3.0
2. Michael Conforto (L)10.3%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)10.6%3.0
4. Alex Bregman (R)10.9%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)15.6%3.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)9.1%2.6
7. Pedro Ramírez (L)11.7%2.0
8. Miguel Amaya (R)11.9%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)14.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
DKDraftKings+105-139
We project 3.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate14.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB14.7%
vs RHB13.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)15.6%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)15.4%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)14.4%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)10.3%3.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)14.4%3.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)12.6%2.9
7. Nathan Church (L)13.7%2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)11.7%2.0
9. José Fermín (R)9.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-145+105
DKDraftKings-137+104
We project 3.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
11 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Seth LugoP
KC@TB· proj #9
7ERFinal
2
Kevin GausmanP
TORvsTEX· proj #10
6ERFinal
3
Cristopher SánchezP
PHI@WSH· proj #6
5ERFinal
4
Bryce MillerP
SEA@PIT· proj #4
3ERFinal
T4
MacKenzie GoreP
TEX@TOR· proj #5
3ERFinal
T4
Jeffrey SpringsP
ATH@SF· proj #16
3ERFinal
7
Connelly EarlyP
BOSvsNYY· proj #8
2ERFinal
T7
Landen RouppP
SFvsATH· proj #11
2ERFinal
T7
Cade CavalliP
WSHvsPHI· proj #14
2ERFinal
10
Troy MeltonP
DETvsHOU· proj #7
1ERFinal
T10
Bubba ChandlerP
PITvsSEA· proj #15
1ERFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
2/450%
season 52%-2 pts-4% ROI
Top 10
4/944%
season 52%-8 pts-6% ROI
Top 20
6/1638%
season building
Top 50
6/1638%
season building
Full slate
6/1638%
season 49%-11 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Thursday, June 25, 2026
Casey Legumina (TB) is the top earned runs spot on the Thursday, June 25, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.3 ER, with Michael McGreevy (STL) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Casey Legumina
Casey Legumina (TB) tops the Thursday, June 25, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.3 ER vs KC. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Michael McGreevy (STL) (100) — about 2.8 ER vs AZ.
Cam Schlittler (NYY) (100) — about 1.5 ER vs BOS.
Bryce Miller (SEA) (74) — about 1.9 ER vs PIT.
MacKenzie Gore (TEX) (65) — about 2.4 ER vs TOR.
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) (62) — about 2.4 ER vs WSH.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 3.0 ER. Casey Legumina finished with 0. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Thursday, June 25, 2026)?
Casey Legumina (TB) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.3 ER against KC.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Thursday, June 25, 2026: Casey Legumina (~1.3 ER), Michael McGreevy (~2.8 ER), Cam Schlittler (~1.5 ER), Bryce Miller (~1.9 ER), MacKenzie Gore (~2.4 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
