MatchWiz Plays
Earned Runs · Thursday, June 25, 2026

HOU @ DET Earned Runs matchups · Thursday, June 25, 2026

HOU
HOU
Houston Astros
21
Final
DET
Detroit Tigers
DET
Comerica ParkElevation 600 ftCenter Field 420 ft 77°F Partly CloudyWind 9 mph, Out To LF

HOU Tatsuya Imai · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate15.2% Runs / BF

vs LHB14.3%
vs RHB13.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.4 BF

Expected batters faced19.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.9 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-130
DKDraftKings-121-110

We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

DET lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Kevin McGonigle (L)14.1%3.0 PA
2Kerry Carpenter (L)11.1%2.4 PA
3Dillon Dingler (R)14.5%2.0 PA
4Riley Greene (L)13.7%2.0 PA
5Colt Keith (L)12.6%2.0 PA
6Spencer Torkelson (R)10.8%2.0 PA
7Zach McKinstry (L)9.2%2.0 PA
8James Outman (L)10.5%2.0 PA
9Hao-Yu Lee (R)9.6%2.0 PA

DET Troy Melton · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.7%
vs RHB9.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-118
DKDraftKings-122-109
FANFanatics-115-125

We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

HOU lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Jeremy Peña (R)14.7%3.0 PA
2Yordan Alvarez (L)16.4%3.0 PA
3Isaac Paredes (R)9.9%3.0 PA
4Christian Walker (R)11.4%3.0 PA
5Jose Altuve (R)13.0%3.0 PA
6Joey Loperfido (L)12.6%3.0 PA
7Cam Smith (R)10.8%2.3 PA
8Taylor Trammell (L)11.9%2.0 PA
9Christian Vázquez (R)10.9%2.0 PA