MatchWiz Plays
Earned Runs · Friday, June 26, 2026

NYY @ BOS Earned Runs matchups · Friday, June 26, 2026

NYY
NYY
New York Yankees
16
Final
BOS
Boston Red Sox
BOS
Fenway ParkElevation 21 ftCenter Field 420 ft 78°F Partly CloudyWind 5 mph, Out To LF

NYY Will Warren · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.7% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.6%
vs RHB9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-130
DKDraftKings-107-123
FANFanatics-110-130

We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

BOS lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Mickey Gasper (L)10.3%3.0 PA
2Ceddanne Rafaela (R)10.6%3.0 PA
3Wilyer Abreu (L)10.4%3.0 PA
4Willson Contreras (R)11.5%3.0 PA
5Jarren Duran (L)11.0%3.0 PA
6Caleb Durbin (R)12.4%2.4 PA
7Anthony Seigler (L)11.8%2.0 PA
8Connor Wong (R)10.0%2.0 PA
9Tsung-Che Cheng (L)10.4%2.0 PA

BOS Payton Tolle · LHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB13.2%
vs RHB8.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140
DKDraftKings+104-138

We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

NYY lineup · K rate vs LHPExp PA
1Paul Goldschmidt (R)13.6%3.0 PA
2Amed Rosario (R)10.4%3.0 PA
3Cody Bellinger (L)12.7%3.0 PA
4Jasson Domínguez (R)10.3%3.0 PA
5José Caballero (R)15.1%3.0 PA
6Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)11.4%2.9 PA
7Anthony Volpe (R)12.7%2.0 PA
8Spencer Jones (L)11.7%2.0 PA
9Ali Sánchez (R)8.9%2.0 PA