Best MLB earned runs matchups — Friday, June 26, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Friday, June 26, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload11.5 BF
Expected batters faced11.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)13.4%2.0
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)12.3%2.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)11.0%1.6
4. Rafael Devers (L)12.1%1.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)14.1%1.0
6. Willy Adames (R)12.2%1.0
7. Matt Chapman (R)10.5%1.0
8. Drew Cavanaugh (L)11.7%1.0
9. Victor Bericoto (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+115
DKDraftKings-163+122
We project 1.1 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.3%
vs RHB11.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.9 BF
Expected batters faced9.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)16.0%1.9
2. Miguel Vargas (R)13.5%1.0
3. Kyle Teel (L)11.4%1.0
4. Andrew Benintendi (L)12.2%1.0
5. Colson Montgomery (L)11.8%1.0
6. Chase Meidroth (R)10.9%1.0
7. Braden Montgomery (L)11.7%1.0
8. Tristan Peters (L)13.5%1.0
9. Jacob Gonzalez (L)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.3%
vs RHB7.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload17.3 BF
Expected batters faced17.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)14.6%2.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)10.7%2.0
3. Pete Alonso (R)12.4%2.0
4. Coby Mayo (R)15.1%2.0
5. Tyler O'Neill (R)11.5%2.0
6. Samuel Basallo (L)9.4%2.0
7. Leody Taveras (R)8.0%2.0
8. Jackson Holliday (L)10.2%2.0
9. Blaze Alexander (R)10.2%1.3
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+125-165
DKDraftKings+121-160
We project 1.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.3%
vs RHB10.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Randy Arozarena (R)12.8%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)12.6%3.0
3. Cal Raleigh (R)9.2%3.0
4. Dominic Canzone (L)9.8%3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L)9.0%2.3
6. J.P. Crawford (L)11.1%2.0
7. Rob Refsnyder (R)10.0%2.0
8. Cole Young (L)8.6%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)11.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-175+125
DKDraftKings-171+128
FANFanatics-180+125
We project 2.0 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate7.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.1%
vs RHB7.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)13.7%3.0
2. Juan Soto (L)13.5%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)11.8%3.0
4. Francisco Lindor (L)14.3%3.0
5. Jared Young (L)11.3%3.0
6. A.J. Ewing (L)11.9%2.6
7. Ronny Mauricio (L)11.7%2.0
8. Brett Baty (L)9.8%2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)10.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BOVBovada+120-160
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 2.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.1%
vs RHB7.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)23.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Blake Dunn (R)12.2%3.0
2. Elly De La Cruz (L)14.0%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)14.0%3.0
4. Sal Stewart (R)11.4%3.0
5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)10.7%3.0
6. Eugenio Suárez (R)10.2%2.6
7. Spencer Steer (R)12.7%2.0
8. Tyler Stephenson (R)9.3%2.0
9. Matt McLain (R)10.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-110
BOVBovada+105-145
DKDraftKings-107-124
We project 2.1 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate6.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB7.2%
vs RHB8.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Henry Bolte (R)8.1%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)16.1%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)12.4%3.0
4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)13.9%3.0
5. Jonah Heim (L)10.2%3.0
6. Lawrence Butler (L)13.7%2.6
7. Max Muncy (R)11.5%2.0
8. Jeff McNeil (L)10.5%2.0
9. Alika Williams (R)14.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-150
BOVBovada+125-165
DKDraftKings+130-173
We project 2.0 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate6.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB5.8%
vs RHB8.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.3 BF
Expected batters faced24.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)16.0%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)10.9%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)10.6%3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)12.5%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)15.6%3.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)9.1%3.0
7. Carson Kelly (R)13.3%2.3
8. Matt Shaw (R)13.1%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)14.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-165
BOVBovada+115-155
DKDraftKings+112-148
We project 2.1 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.6%
vs RHB9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.4 BF
Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Mickey Gasper (L)10.3%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)10.6%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)10.4%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)11.5%3.0
5. Jarren Duran (L)11.0%3.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)12.4%2.4
7. Anthony Seigler (L)11.8%2.0
8. Connor Wong (R)10.0%2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L)10.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-130
DKDraftKings-107-123
FANFanatics-110-130
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.5%
vs RHB8.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Konnor Griffin (R)12.1%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)12.0%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (R)13.1%3.0
4. Marcell Ozuna (R)9.2%3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)12.8%3.0
6. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)11.7%2.0
7. Jared Triolo (R)11.4%2.0
8. Jake Mangum (R)11.7%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)10.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
BOVBovada-135-105
DKDraftKings-123-108
FANFanatics-130-110
We project 2.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.8%
vs RHB9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.1 BF
Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)10.3%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)12.0%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)14.2%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)11.1%3.0
5. Nolan Arenado (R)10.0%3.0
6. Max Kepler (L)11.7%3.0
7. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)8.7%2.1
8. Pavin Smith (L)9.7%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)12.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-118
DKDraftKings-108-123
FANFanatics-120-120
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.0 BF
Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts1
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)15.0%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)14.1%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)9.6%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)8.3%3.0
5. Brandon Marsh (L)11.2%2.0
6. Derek Hill (R)10.6%2.0
7. J.T. Realmuto (R)8.5%2.0
8. Bryson Stott (L)11.5%2.0
9. Edmundo Sosa (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-120
BOVBovada-120-120
DKDraftKings-113-117
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.0%
vs RHB10.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)14.7%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)16.4%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)9.9%3.0
4. Christian Walker (R)11.4%2.5
5. Jose Altuve (R)13.0%2.0
6. Joey Loperfido (L)12.6%2.0
7. Yainer Diaz (R)9.8%2.0
8. Cam Smith (R)10.8%2.0
9. Taylor Trammell (L)11.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
DKDraftKings-112-118
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.0%
vs RHB13.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.4 BF
Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Wyatt Langford (R)12.5%3.0
2. Josh Jung (R)11.7%3.0
3. Brandon Nimmo (L)9.4%3.0
4. Jake Burger (R)11.1%2.4
5. Justin Foscue (R)11.6%2.0
6. Ezequiel Duran (R)9.8%2.0
7. Kyle Higashioka (R)11.5%2.0
8. Alejandro Osuna (L)12.0%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)11.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-120
DKDraftKings-107-124
FANFanatics-115-125
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.2%
vs RHB8.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Paul Goldschmidt (R)13.6%3.0
2. Amed Rosario (R)10.4%3.0
3. Cody Bellinger (L)12.7%3.0
4. Jasson Domínguez (R)10.3%3.0
5. José Caballero (R)15.1%3.0
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)11.4%2.9
7. Anthony Volpe (R)12.7%2.0
8. Spencer Jones (L)11.7%2.0
9. Ali Sánchez (R)8.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140
DKDraftKings+104-138
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.5%
vs RHB12.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)14.1%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)14.5%3.0
3. Kerry Carpenter (L)11.1%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)13.7%3.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)10.8%3.0
6. Colt Keith (L)12.6%2.7
7. Zach McKinstry (L)9.2%2.0
8. Matt Vierling (R)8.6%2.0
9. James Outman (L)10.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-115
DKDraftKings-147+110
FANFanatics-120-120
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.2 BF
Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)14.0%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)12.6%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)15.5%3.0
4. Lane Thomas (R)11.4%2.2
5. Michael Massey (L)11.4%2.0
6. Salvador Perez (R)9.3%2.0
7. Josh Rojas (L)11.3%2.0
8. Nick Loftin (R)14.0%2.0
9. Isaac Collins (L)10.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-165
BOVBovada+130-170
DKDraftKings+120-160
FANFanatics+120-170
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.0%
vs RHB10.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.5 BF
Expected batters faced20.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)14.2%3.0
2. Kyle Manzardo (L)11.0%3.0
3. Brayan Rocchio (L)9.7%2.5
4. Kahlil Watson (L)11.7%2.0
5. Cooper Ingle (L)11.7%2.0
6. Daniel Schneemann (L)10.7%2.0
7. Steven Kwan (L)11.5%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)10.8%2.0
9. Petey Halpin (L)12.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings+129-172
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.9%
vs RHB11.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.8 BF
Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)16.8%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)13.4%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)14.2%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)14.1%2.8
5. Max Muncy (L)14.5%2.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L)13.8%2.0
7. Tommy Edman (L)9.1%2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L)12.0%2.0
9. Alex Freeland (L)10.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-130
BOVBovada-125-115
DKDraftKings-111-120
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.4%
vs RHB12.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.6 BF
Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)12.6%3.0
2. Curtis Mead (R)14.0%3.0
3. Andrés Chaparro (R)13.0%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)12.3%3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)15.4%2.6
6. Daylen Lile (L)9.9%2.0
7. Jacob Young (R)12.4%2.0
8. Nasim Nuñez (R)14.2%2.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (R)11.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-118
BOVBovada-115-125
DKDraftKings-105-126
FANFanatics-120-120
We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.8%
vs RHB9.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.5 BF
Expected batters faced24.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)15.6%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)15.4%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)14.4%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)10.3%3.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)14.4%3.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)12.6%3.0
7. Nathan Church (L)13.7%2.5
8. Blaze Jordan (R)11.7%2.0
9. José Fermín (R)9.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings-103-129
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.8%
vs RHB10.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.8 BF
Expected batters faced25.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)13.9%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)11.3%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)13.2%3.0
4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)13.5%3.0
5. Daulton Varsho (L)14.0%3.0
6. Ernie Clement (R)10.7%3.0
7. Jesús Sánchez (L)10.5%3.0
8. Brandon Valenzuela (L)10.5%2.8
9. Andrés Giménez (L)9.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-130
DKDraftKings-116-114
We project 3.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.1%
vs RHB8.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jakob Marsee (L)10.2%3.0
2. Griffin Conine (L)12.5%3.0
3. Xavier Edwards (L)10.7%3.0
4. Kyle Stowers (L)12.0%3.0
5. Otto Lopez (R)15.0%3.0
6. Owen Caissie (L)11.8%2.2
7. Joe Mack (L)11.7%2.0
8. Esteury Ruiz (R)13.7%2.0
9. Graham Pauley (L)8.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings-110-120
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.7%
vs RHB12.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)15.3%3.0
2. Nolan Schanuel (L)10.6%3.0
3. Jo Adell (R)12.1%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)11.8%3.0
5. Wade Meckler (L)12.4%3.0
6. Denzer Guzman (R)11.9%2.7
7. Donovan Walton (L)12.7%2.0
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)10.5%2.0
9. Josh Lowe (L)9.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140
BOVBovada+120-160
DKDraftKings+121-160
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.6%
vs RHB11.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)14.6%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)16.6%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)12.9%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)13.9%3.0
5. Victor Caratini (L)11.5%3.0
6. Royce Lewis (R)10.2%2.0
7. Brooks Lee (L)13.9%2.0
8. Tristan Gray (L)9.1%2.0
9. Luke Keaschall (R)14.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings-163+123
We project 3.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate13.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.5%
vs RHB11.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.9 BF
Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)13.1%3.0
2. Samad Taylor (R)13.4%3.0
3. Jackson Merrill (L)12.2%3.0
4. Manny Machado (R)11.8%3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L)12.1%2.9
6. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.7%2.0
7. Ty France (R)10.8%2.0
8. Will Wagner (L)11.1%2.0
9. Rodolfo Durán (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-190+135
BOVBovada-170+130
We project 3.1 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.6%
vs RHB9.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Michael Harris II (L)12.8%3.0
2. Mauricio Dubón (R)10.1%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)12.8%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (L)16.5%3.0
5. Drake Baldwin (L)14.5%2.7
6. Austin Riley (R)9.5%2.0
7. Dominic Smith (L)12.3%2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)11.1%2.0
9. Ha-Seong Kim (R)10.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-145
DKDraftKings+113-150
FANFanatics+105-150
We project 3.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.8%
vs RHB9.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)13.2%3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L)12.1%3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R)13.1%3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L)13.6%3.0
5. Willi Castro (L)13.5%3.0
6. Troy Johnston (L)12.6%2.0
7. Cole Carrigg (L)11.7%2.0
8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)11.2%2.0
9. Edouard Julien (L)10.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-120
DKDraftKings-102-130
FANFanatics-115-125
We project 3.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.4%
vs RHB12.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)16.4%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)13.2%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)15.3%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)12.7%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)15.3%2.7
6. Andrew Vaughn (R)8.7%2.0
7. Garrett Mitchell (L)15.2%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)11.7%2.0
9. David Hamilton (L)12.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-105
BOVBovada-125-115
DKDraftKings-121-109
FANFanatics-130-110
We project 3.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate14.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB14.7%
vs RHB13.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)11.8%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)12.6%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)12.0%3.0
4. Richie Palacios (L)12.4%3.0
5. Jonny DeLuca (R)12.3%3.0
6. Cedric Mullins (L)11.0%2.9
7. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)13.3%2.0
8. Taylor Walls (L)12.8%2.0
9. Hunter Feduccia (L)12.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-105
DKDraftKings-134+101
We project 3.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
24 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Spencer ArrighettiP
HOU@DET· proj #16
8ERFinal
2
Walbert UreñaP
LAAvsATH· proj #7
7ERFinal
T2
Tomoyuki SuganoP
COL@MIN· proj #25
7ERFinal
4
Will WarrenP
NYY@BOS· proj #9
5ERFinal
T4
Patrick CorbinP
TORvsTEX· proj #14
5ERFinal
T4
Zac GallenP
AZ@TB· proj #30
5ERFinal
7
Paul SkenesP
PITvsCIN· proj #6
4ERFinal
8
Andrew AbbottP
CIN@PIT· proj #10
3ERFinal
T8
J.T. GinnP
ATH@LAA· proj #24
3ERFinal
T8
Roki SasakiP
LAD@SD· proj #26
3ERFinal
T8
Trevor McDonaldP
SFvsATL· proj #27
3ERFinal
12
Andrew AlvarezP
WSH@BAL· proj #3
2ERFinal
T12
Taj BradleyP
MINvsCOL· proj #28
2ERFinal
14
Reynaldo LópezP
ATL@SF· proj #1
1ERFinal
T14
Joey CantilloP
CLEvsSEA· proj #4
1ERFinal
T14
Zack WheelerP
PHI@NYM· proj #5
1ERFinal
T14
Jacob MisiorowskiP
MILvsCHC· proj #8
1ERFinal
T14
Nick MartinezP
TBvsAZ· proj #11
1ERFinal
T14
Zach ThorntonP
NYMvsPHI· proj #12
1ERFinal
T14
David SandlinP
CWSvsKC· proj #17
1ERFinal
T14
Luis CastilloP
SEA@CLE· proj #18
1ERFinal
T14
Walker BuehlerP
SDvsLAD· proj #19
1ERFinal
T14
Trevor RogersP
BALvsWSH· proj #20
1ERFinal
T14
Colin ReaP
CHC@MIL· proj #29
1ERFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
3/475%
season 52%+23 pts-4% ROI
Top 10
4/944%
season 52%-8 pts-6% ROI
Top 20
8/1942%
season building
Top 50
13/2945%
season building
Full slate
13/2945%
season 49%-4 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Friday, June 26, 2026
Reynaldo López (ATL) is the top earned runs spot on the Friday, June 26, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.1 ER, with Steven Cruz (KC) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Reynaldo López
Reynaldo López (ATL) tops the Friday, June 26, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.1 ER vs SF. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Steven Cruz (KC) (91) — about 1.4 ER vs CWS.
Andrew Alvarez (WSH) (83) — about 1.6 ER vs BAL.
Joey Cantillo (CLE) (67) — about 2.0 ER vs SEA.
Zack Wheeler (PHI) (64) — about 2.1 ER vs NYM.
Paul Skenes (PIT) (61) — about 2.1 ER vs CIN.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 2.5 ER. Reynaldo López finished with 1. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Friday, June 26, 2026)?
Reynaldo López (ATL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.1 ER against SF.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Friday, June 26, 2026: Reynaldo López (~1.1 ER), Steven Cruz (~1.4 ER), Andrew Alvarez (~1.6 ER), Joey Cantillo (~2.0 ER), Zack Wheeler (~2.1 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
