‹ Earned Runs · Sunday, June 28, 2026
AZ @ TB Earned Runs matchups · Sunday, June 28, 2026
AZ
Arizona Diamondbacks
0–1
● LIVE · Top 2
TB
Tampa Bay Rays
◆ Tropicana FieldElevation 15 ftCenter Field 404 ft☀ 72°F DomeWind 0 mph, None
Merrill Kelly · RHP
Pitcher earned runs Rate13.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB14.7%
vs RHB10.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.5 BF
Expected batters faced25.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+100
DKDraftKings-140+105
FANFanatics-140+100
We project 3.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
TB lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Yandy Díaz (R)13.1%3.0 PA
2Jonathan Aranda (L)14.0%3.0 PA
3Junior Caminero (R)14.0%3.0 PA
4Victor Mesa Jr. (L)14.0%3.0 PA
5Chandler Simpson (L)10.8%3.0 PA
6Cedric Mullins (L)11.8%3.0 PA
7Ben Williamson (R)11.7%3.0 PA
8Taylor Walls (L)13.4%2.5 PA
9Nick Fortes (R)11.7%2.0 PA
Drew Rasmussen · RHP
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.4%
vs RHB7.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135-105
DKDraftKings-133+100
We project 2.1 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
AZ lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Ketel Marte (L)10.9%3.0 PA
2Geraldo Perdomo (L)12.8%3.0 PA
3Corbin Carroll (L)13.9%3.0 PA
4Adrian Del Castillo (L)10.2%3.0 PA
5Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)8.4%3.0 PA
6Pavin Smith (L)11.7%2.1 PA
7Nolan Arenado (R)10.1%2.0 PA
8Ildemaro Vargas (L)11.7%2.0 PA
9Tommy Troy (R)12.3%2.0 PA