Best MLB earned runs matchups — Sunday, June 28, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, June 28, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Tap any card for the full breakdown.
PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 2 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
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#Pitcher · MatchupScore
Pitcher earned runs Rate6.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB7.5%
vs RHB7.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.9 BF
Expected batters faced24.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Matt Chapman (R)12.0%3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L)9.8%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)11.2%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)9.3%3.0
5. Willy Adames (R)12.7%3.0
6. Heliot Ramos (R)12.9%3.0
7. Jung Hoo Lee (L)10.8%2.9
8. Victor Bericoto (R)11.7%2.0
9. Eric Haase (R)10.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-145+105
DKDraftKings-140+105
FANFanatics-150+105
We project 1.8 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB7.6%
vs RHB10.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.1 BF
Expected batters faced9.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection0.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)11.4%1.1
2. Jackson Chourio (R)14.8%1.0
3. Brice Turang (L)11.5%1.0
4. Andrew Vaughn (R)13.2%1.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)10.6%1.0
6. Gary Sánchez (R)13.2%1.0
7. Sal Frelick (L)11.0%1.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)11.7%1.0
9. David Hamilton (L)12.6%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+160-220
FANFanatics+155-225
We project 0.9 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB14.1%
vs RHB10.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload10.5 BF
Expected batters faced10.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)15.1%2.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)13.3%1.6
3. Bryce Harper (L)9.1%1.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)8.0%1.0
5. Brandon Marsh (L)10.5%1.0
6. J.T. Realmuto (R)11.7%1.0
7. Bryson Stott (L)10.8%1.0
8. Derek Hill (R)11.7%1.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)16.4%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-165
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 1.4 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate7.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB7.0%
vs RHB9.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.4 BF
Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)14.2%3.0
2. Colt Keith (L)12.8%3.0
3. Riley Greene (L)12.3%3.0
4. Dillon Dingler (R)14.1%2.4
5. Kerry Carpenter (L)11.4%2.0
6. Zach McKinstry (L)9.0%2.0
7. Hao-Yu Lee (R)8.8%2.0
8. James Outman (L)11.1%2.0
9. Matt Vierling (R)9.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+125
DKDraftKings-173+130
We project 1.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.0%
vs RHB9.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Mauricio Dubón (R)11.0%3.0
2. Michael Harris II (L)11.4%3.0
3. Ozzie Albies (R)11.0%3.0
4. Matt Olson (L)12.7%3.0
5. Drake Baldwin (L)13.0%3.0
6. Austin Riley (R)10.6%2.2
7. Joey Bart (R)11.7%2.0
8. Eli White (R)10.6%2.0
9. Ha-Seong Kim (R)9.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-125
DKDraftKings-113-117
We project 2.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.4%
vs RHB7.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)10.9%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)12.8%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)13.9%3.0
4. Adrian Del Castillo (L)10.2%3.0
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)8.4%3.0
6. Pavin Smith (L)11.7%2.1
7. Nolan Arenado (R)10.1%2.0
8. Ildemaro Vargas (L)11.7%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)12.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135-105
DKDraftKings-133+100
We project 2.1 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.1%
vs RHB10.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.1 BF
Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)16.0%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)14.4%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)11.7%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)14.8%3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)12.3%3.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)12.6%3.0
7. Jacob Young (R)11.7%2.1
8. Jorbit Vivas (L)12.6%2.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-160
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.9%
vs RHB10.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Konnor Griffin (R)13.2%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)14.8%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)14.3%3.0
4. Nick Gonzales (R)12.3%3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)11.3%2.3
6. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)11.7%2.0
7. Tyler Callihan (L)11.4%2.0
8. Jake Mangum (L)10.6%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)12.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
DKDraftKings-130-102
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.0%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.6 BF
Expected batters faced24.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)13.1%3.0
2. Juan Soto (L)13.3%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)13.5%3.0
4. Eric Wagaman (R)12.2%3.0
5. Francisco Alvarez (R)10.5%3.0
6. Mark Vientos (R)12.4%3.0
7. Tyrone Taylor (R)11.7%2.6
8. Brett Baty (L)11.8%2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)10.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+130-175
BOVBovada+130-170
DKDraftKings+127-169
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.4%
vs RHB12.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.3 BF
Expected batters faced21.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)15.1%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)11.7%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)10.1%3.0
4. Christian Walker (R)10.9%2.3
5. Joey Loperfido (L)12.4%2.0
6. Yainer Diaz (R)9.8%2.0
7. Taylor Trammell (L)11.7%2.0
8. Jake Meyers (R)11.1%2.0
9. Raynel Delgado (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+125-165
DKDraftKings+106-141
FANFanatics+120-170
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.2%
vs RHB10.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)12.9%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)11.2%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)13.0%3.0
4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)13.7%3.0
5. Daulton Varsho (L)12.5%2.3
6. Ernie Clement (R)10.5%2.0
7. Alejandro Kirk (R)8.8%2.0
8. Yohendrick Piñango (L)10.0%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)10.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-115
DKDraftKings-113-117
FANFanatics-120-120
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.5%
vs RHB10.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.9 BF
Expected batters faced20.9
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)15.1%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)10.7%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)10.5%2.9
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)12.1%2.0
5. Ian Happ (L)15.2%2.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)11.0%2.0
7. Michael Conforto (L)12.1%2.0
8. Miguel Amaya (R)13.1%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)14.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+115
DKDraftKings-161+121
We project 2.2 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate13.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.4%
vs RHB13.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.0 BF
Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts1
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)12.3%3.0
2. Josh Jung (R)10.9%3.0
3. Corey Seager (L)14.3%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)10.5%3.0
5. Jake Burger (R)11.8%2.0
6. Ezequiel Duran (R)11.7%2.0
7. Evan Carter (L)11.7%2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R)11.9%2.0
9. Alejandro Osuna (L)9.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-130
DKDraftKings-104-128
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.3%
vs RHB8.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (L)13.7%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)12.3%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)12.7%3.0
4. Eugenio Suárez (R)10.3%3.0
5. Spencer Steer (R)13.5%3.0
6. Noelvi Marte (R)11.3%2.8
7. Tyler Stephenson (R)11.7%2.0
8. TJ Friedl (L)9.9%2.0
9. Edwin Arroyo (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-115
DKDraftKings-122-109
FANFanatics-125-115
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.5%
vs RHB10.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)11.0%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)11.5%3.0
3. Josh Naylor (L)9.9%3.0
4. Randy Arozarena (R)13.1%3.0
5. Cal Raleigh (L)10.9%3.0
6. Cole Young (L)11.4%2.6
7. Colt Emerson (L)11.4%2.0
8. Mitch Garver (R)11.7%2.0
9. Victor Robles (R)9.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-160
DKDraftKings+118-158
FANFanatics+125-180
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.1%
vs RHB11.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.8 BF
Expected batters faced20.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)12.3%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)12.9%3.0
3. Adley Rutschman (L)10.7%2.8
4. Pete Alonso (R)14.2%2.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)11.5%2.0
6. Dylan Beavers (L)12.4%2.0
7. Coby Mayo (R)9.5%2.0
8. Colton Cowser (L)11.7%2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)13.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+115
FANFanatics-165+115
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.6%
vs RHB8.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload17.5 BF
Expected batters faced17.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)15.5%2.0
2. Miguel Vargas (R)12.9%2.0
3. Kyle Teel (L)12.8%2.0
4. Andrew Benintendi (L)12.2%2.0
5. Colson Montgomery (L)12.0%2.0
6. Chase Meidroth (R)11.9%2.0
7. Braden Montgomery (L)11.7%2.0
8. Tristan Peters (L)13.9%2.0
9. Jacob Gonzalez (L)12.3%1.6
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-160
DKDraftKings+104-138
FANFanatics+115-165
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.1%
vs RHB9.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jakob Marsee (L)10.8%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)14.3%3.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L)10.8%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L)10.8%3.0
5. Heriberto Hernández (R)11.1%2.5
6. Griffin Conine (L)11.1%2.0
7. Owen Caissie (L)12.3%2.0
8. Graham Pauley (L)10.5%2.0
9. Brian Navarreto (R)12.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-115
BOVBovada-115-125
DKDraftKings-107-124
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.3%
vs RHB11.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.5 BF
Expected batters faced19.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)14.2%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)13.5%2.5
3. Alec Burleson (L)12.4%2.0
4. Lars Nootbaar (L)13.9%2.0
5. Masyn Winn (R)11.9%2.0
6. Bryan Torres (L)11.8%2.0
7. Blaze Jordan (R)11.7%2.0
8. Nathan Church (L)13.3%2.0
9. Pedro Pagés (R)11.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-118
BOVBovada-145+105
DKDraftKings-134+101
FANFanatics-120-120
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.9%
vs RHB10.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.9 BF
Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Lane Thomas (R)10.2%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)13.5%3.0
3. Carter Jensen (L)13.0%3.0
4. Starling Marte (R)11.0%3.0
5. Salvador Perez (R)11.0%2.9
6. Michael Massey (L)12.6%2.0
7. Isaac Collins (R)12.0%2.0
8. Tyler Tolbert (R)13.9%2.0
9. Kameron Misner (L)10.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
DKDraftKings+110-146
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate13.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.8%
vs RHB10.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Steven Kwan (L)11.3%3.0
2. Travis Bazzana (L)15.4%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)11.7%3.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L)12.0%3.0
5. Kahlil Watson (L)10.6%2.3
6. Brayan Rocchio (L)10.1%2.0
7. Cooper Ingle (L)11.7%2.0
8. Gabriel Arias (R)9.0%2.0
9. Austin Hedges (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
DKDraftKings+121-161
We project 3.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.6%
vs RHB9.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Paul Goldschmidt (R)11.3%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)16.1%3.0
3. Amed Rosario (R)12.9%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)13.0%3.0
5. Jasson Domínguez (L)11.0%3.0
6. José Caballero (R)10.5%2.9
7. Max Schuemann (R)12.9%2.0
8. Anthony Volpe (R)12.7%2.0
9. Austin Wells (L)11.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-130
DKDraftKings+114-152
FANFanatics-110-130
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate14.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB14.7%
vs RHB12.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload18.1 BF
Expected batters faced18.1
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Henry Bolte (R)13.7%2.1
2. Joey Meneses (R)10.1%2.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)14.1%2.0
4. Jonah Heim (R)11.8%2.0
5. Colby Thomas (R)11.6%2.0
6. Lawrence Butler (L)12.8%2.0
7. Max Muncy (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jeff McNeil (L)10.9%2.0
9. Alika Williams (R)11.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.4%
vs RHB10.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.0 BF
Expected batters faced24.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)17.1%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)13.4%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)14.1%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)15.3%3.0
5. Max Muncy (L)14.4%3.0
6. Tommy Edman (L)9.5%3.0
7. Kyle Tucker (L)13.8%2.0
8. Alex Freeland (L)11.1%2.0
9. Chuckie Robinson (R)10.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-130
DKDraftKings-104-127
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.6%
vs RHB8.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.0 BF
Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Masataka Yoshida (L)11.3%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)13.4%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)13.4%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)13.0%3.0
5. Jarren Duran (L)11.9%2.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)10.8%2.0
7. Anthony Seigler (R)12.1%2.0
8. Carlos Narváez (R)13.9%2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L)11.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-150
DKDraftKings+108-143
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate13.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB15.4%
vs RHB10.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.6 BF
Expected batters faced20.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)12.6%3.0
2. Samad Taylor (R)13.6%3.0
3. Jackson Merrill (L)11.4%2.6
4. Manny Machado (R)11.9%2.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L)12.8%2.0
6. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.8%2.0
7. Miguel Andujar (R)10.6%2.0
8. Sung-Mun Song (L)13.3%2.0
9. Rodolfo Durán (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+120
FANFanatics-170+120
We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.7%
vs RHB13.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.1 BF
Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)15.2%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)15.8%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)12.6%3.0
4. Royce Lewis (R)9.9%2.1
5. Brooks Lee (L)14.8%2.0
6. Luke Keaschall (R)14.5%2.0
7. Ryan Kreidler (R)15.7%2.0
8. Austin Martin (R)11.0%2.0
9. Alex Jackson (R)13.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+110
BOVBovada-145+105
DKDraftKings-156+117
FANFanatics-155+110
We project 3.0 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB14.4%
vs RHB9.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.9 BF
Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)15.0%3.0
2. Denzer Guzman (R)10.9%3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L)11.2%3.0
4. Jo Adell (R)12.5%2.9
5. Vaughn Grissom (R)12.2%2.0
6. Wade Meckler (L)12.1%2.0
7. Oswald Peraza (R)8.5%2.0
8. Josh Lowe (L)10.2%2.0
9. Tyler Heineman (L)11.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-118
BOVBovada-125-115
DKDraftKings-111-119
FANFanatics-120-120
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.4%
vs RHB11.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Willi Castro (R)11.3%3.0
2. Tyler Freeman (R)13.4%3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R)15.4%3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L)9.4%3.0
5. Cole Carrigg (R)11.7%3.0
6. Kyle Karros (R)13.5%2.6
7. Troy Johnston (L)9.4%2.0
8. Braxton Fulford (R)12.9%2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)10.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BOVBovada+130-170
DKDraftKings+113-150
We project 3.0 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate13.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB14.7%
vs RHB10.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.5 BF
Expected batters faced25.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)13.1%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)14.0%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)14.0%3.0
4. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)14.0%3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L)10.8%3.0
6. Cedric Mullins (L)11.8%3.0
7. Ben Williamson (R)11.7%3.0
8. Taylor Walls (L)13.4%2.5
9. Nick Fortes (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+100
DKDraftKings-140+105
FANFanatics-140+100
We project 3.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
13 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Brady SingerP
CIN@PIT· proj #8
4ER live
T1
Luinder AvilaP
KC@CWS· proj #17
4ER live
3
Mitch KellerP
PITvsCIN· proj #14
3ER live
T3
Merrill KellyP
AZ@TB· proj #30
3ER live
5
Hunter BrownP
HOU@DET· proj #4
2ER live
T5
Kyle BradishP
BALvsWSH· proj #7
2ER live
T5
Gavin WilliamsP
CLEvsSEA· proj #15
2ER live
T5
Zack LittellP
WSH@BAL· proj #16
2ER live
T5
Tyler PhillipsP
MIA@STL· proj #19
2ER live
T5
Anthony KayP
CWSvsKC· proj #20
2ER live
11
Ryan RolisonP
CHC@MIL· proj #2
1ER live
T11
Shane BieberP
TORvsTEX· proj #13
1ER live
T11
Connor PrielippP
MINvsCOL· proj #29
1ER live
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate. Updating live — 11 games in progress.
Top 5
2/367%
season 52%+15 pts-4% ROI
Top 10
3/475%
season 52%+23 pts-6% ROI
Top 20
4/667%
season building
Top 50
5/771%
season building
Full slate
5/771%
season 49%+22 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Sunday, June 28, 2026
Chris Sale (ATL) is the top earned runs spot on the Sunday, June 28, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.8 ER, with Ryan Rolison (CHC) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Chris Sale
Chris Sale (ATL) tops the Sunday, June 28, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.8 ER vs SF. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Ryan Rolison (CHC) (100) — about 0.9 ER vs MIL.
Cionel Pérez (NYM) (82) — about 1.4 ER vs PHI.
Hunter Brown (HOU) (71) — about 1.7 ER vs DET.
Robbie Ray (SF) (68) — about 2.1 ER vs ATL.
Drew Rasmussen (TB) (59) — about 2.1 ER vs AZ.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 1.1 ER. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Sunday, June 28, 2026)?
Chris Sale (ATL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.8 ER against SF.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Sunday, June 28, 2026: Chris Sale (~1.8 ER), Ryan Rolison (~0.9 ER), Cionel Pérez (~1.4 ER), Hunter Brown (~1.7 ER), Robbie Ray (~2.1 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
