MatchWiz Plays Optimizer
Earned Runs · Thursday, July 2, 2026

PIT @ PHI Earned Runs matchups · Thursday, July 2, 2026

PIT
PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates
vs
12:35 PM EDT
PHI
Philadelphia Phillies
PHI
Citizens Bank ParkElevation 20 ftCenter Field 401 ft

PIT Jared Jones · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.7% Runs / BF

vs LHB14.4%
vs RHB9.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.9 BF

Expected batters faced19.9
From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.2 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

PHI lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Trea Turner (R)16.2%3.0 PA
2Kyle Schwarber (L)16.2%2.9 PA
3Bryce Harper (L)17.6%2.0 PA
4Brandon Marsh (L)15.9%2.0 PA
5Alec Bohm (R)11.3%2.0 PA
6Bryson Stott (L)12.7%2.0 PA
7J.T. Realmuto (R)12.6%2.0 PA
8Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)11.7%2.0 PA
9Justin Crawford (L)9.1%2.0 PA

PHI Alan Rangel · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB13.2%
vs RHB8.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.0 BF

Expected batters faced20.0
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

PIT lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Konnor Griffin (R)13.1%3.0 PA
2Brandon Lowe (L)14.8%3.0 PA
3Bryan Reynolds (L)15.4%2.0 PA
4Esmerlyn Valdez (R)11.7%2.0 PA
5Ryan O'Hearn (L)13.9%2.0 PA
6Nick Gonzales (R)12.7%2.0 PA
7Jake Mangum (L)11.2%2.0 PA
8Tyler Callihan (L)11.6%2.0 PA
9Henry Davis (R)11.9%2.0 PA