Best MLB earned runs matchups — Thursday, July 2, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, July 2, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Tap any card for the full breakdown.
PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 18 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
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#Pitcher · MatchupScore
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.1%
vs RHB8.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload15.9 BF
Expected batters faced15.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Lane Thomas (R)10.9%2.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)14.2%2.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)11.5%2.0
4. Starling Marte (R)11.2%2.0
5. Salvador Perez (R)10.7%2.0
6. Carter Jensen (L)12.4%2.0
7. Nick Loftin (R)11.1%1.9
8. Tyler Tolbert (R)14.9%1.0
9. Michael Massey (L)12.0%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate6.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB6.0%
vs RHB8.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.4 BF
Expected batters faced24.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (L)14.3%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)12.6%3.0
3. Spencer Steer (R)13.4%3.0
4. Eugenio Suárez (R)9.5%3.0
5. Tyler Stephenson (R)10.2%3.0
6. Noelvi Marte (R)11.2%3.0
7. Ivan Johnson (L)11.7%2.4
8. Matt McLain (R)9.4%2.0
9. Edwin Arroyo (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB11.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload16.8 BF
Expected batters faced16.8
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)13.0%2.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L)12.1%2.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R)13.6%2.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L)12.0%2.0
5. Willi Castro (L)12.8%2.0
6. Tyler Freeman (R)11.5%2.0
7. Troy Johnston (L)11.4%2.0
8. Kyle Karros (R)13.3%1.8
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)9.9%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.4%
vs RHB9.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.2 BF
Expected batters faced20.2
From recent starts1
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)13.8%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)12.8%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)11.7%2.3
4. Jordan Walker (R)10.8%2.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)13.1%2.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)12.6%2.0
7. Nathan Church (L)12.8%2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)11.7%2.0
9. Jimmy Crooks (L)7.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.4%
vs RHB7.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.9 BF
Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jackson Chourio (R)13.1%3.0
2. Brice Turang (L)14.7%3.0
3. William Contreras (R)13.2%3.0
4. Jake Bauers (L)16.9%3.0
5. Andrew Vaughn (R)9.2%2.9
6. Garrett Mitchell (L)14.0%2.0
7. Gary Sánchez (R)11.6%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)11.7%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)12.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.1%
vs RHB10.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. David Fry (R)11.7%3.0
2. Chase DeLauter (L)10.3%3.0
3. Rhys Hoskins (R)9.8%3.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L)12.1%3.0
5. Brayan Rocchio (L)10.9%3.0
6. Gabriel Arias (R)10.5%2.2
7. Kahlil Watson (L)11.7%2.0
8. Austin Hedges (R)10.7%2.0
9. Daniel Schneemann (L)10.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.1%
vs RHB10.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Justin Foscue (R)11.3%3.0
2. Josh Jung (R)13.0%3.0
3. Ezequiel Duran (R)10.5%3.0
4. Jake Burger (R)12.4%3.0
5. Kyle Higashioka (R)10.2%3.0
6. Cam Cauley (R)11.7%2.9
7. Alejandro Osuna (L)11.4%2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R)10.5%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)11.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.1 BF
Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)15.4%3.0
2. Vaughn Grissom (R)12.3%3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L)10.1%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)11.6%2.1
5. Wade Meckler (L)13.1%2.0
6. Jo Adell (R)10.8%2.0
7. Josh Lowe (L)11.0%2.0
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)10.3%2.0
9. Donovan Walton (L)12.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.2%
vs RHB8.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.0 BF
Expected batters faced20.0
From recent starts3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Konnor Griffin (R)13.1%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)14.8%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)15.4%2.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)11.7%2.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)13.9%2.0
6. Nick Gonzales (R)12.7%2.0
7. Jake Mangum (L)11.2%2.0
8. Tyler Callihan (L)11.6%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)11.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.1%
vs RHB10.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)15.9%3.0
2. Miguel Vargas (R)13.1%3.0
3. Andrew Benintendi (L)12.5%3.0
4. Braden Montgomery (L)11.7%3.0
5. Jacob Gonzalez (L)11.7%2.8
6. Chase Meidroth (R)13.2%2.0
7. Tristan Peters (L)13.9%2.0
8. Luisangel Acuña (R)14.1%2.0
9. Drew Romo (L)10.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)10.2%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)12.2%3.0
3. Josh Naylor (L)11.2%3.0
4. Randy Arozarena (R)13.7%3.0
5. Cal Raleigh (L)11.6%3.0
6. Cole Young (L)12.9%2.9
7. Colt Emerson (L)10.4%2.0
8. Victor Robles (R)10.3%2.0
9. Weston Wilson (R)11.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.4%
vs RHB9.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.7 BF
Expected batters faced25.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)13.5%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)13.5%3.0
3. Kerry Carpenter (L)12.2%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)13.9%3.0
5. Colt Keith (L)11.9%3.0
6. Spencer Torkelson (R)10.7%3.0
7. Zach McKinstry (L)9.5%3.0
8. James Outman (L)10.7%2.7
9. Jake Rogers (R)10.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.1%
vs RHB11.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.4 BF
Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)12.7%3.0
2. Gavin Sheets (L)13.0%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)12.2%3.0
4. Ty France (R)12.4%3.0
5. Jackson Merrill (L)11.8%2.4
6. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.9%2.0
7. Jake Cronenworth (L)11.6%2.0
8. Rodolfo Durán (R)11.7%2.0
9. Sung-Mun Song (L)13.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB14.4%
vs RHB9.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.9 BF
Expected batters faced19.9
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)16.2%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)16.2%2.9
3. Bryce Harper (L)17.6%2.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L)15.9%2.0
5. Alec Bohm (R)11.3%2.0
6. Bryson Stott (L)12.7%2.0
7. J.T. Realmuto (R)12.6%2.0
8. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)9.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate13.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.4%
vs RHB11.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.9 BF
Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)17.5%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)13.8%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)13.9%3.0
4. Max Muncy (L)13.5%2.9
5. Kyle Tucker (L)13.3%2.0
6. Tommy Edman (L)10.2%2.0
7. Alex Freeland (L)12.5%2.0
8. Miguel Rojas (R)9.8%2.0
9. Chuckie Robinson (R)10.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate14.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.8%
vs RHB14.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)13.7%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)13.4%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)14.1%3.0
4. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)12.8%3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L)10.6%3.0
6. Cedric Mullins (L)12.0%2.6
7. Taylor Walls (L)14.4%2.0
8. Richie Palacios (L)11.9%2.0
9. Hunter Feduccia (L)11.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate14.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.7%
vs RHB11.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Drake Baldwin (L)13.3%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)14.6%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)13.0%3.0
4. Michael Harris II (L)11.7%3.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)12.2%3.0
6. Dominic Smith (L)11.9%2.3
7. Austin Riley (R)10.1%2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)11.3%2.0
9. Jorge Mateo (R)16.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate13.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.5%
vs RHB13.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.6 BF
Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Otto Lopez (R)14.1%3.0
2. Esteury Ruiz (R)15.8%3.0
3. Liam Hicks (L)13.4%3.0
4. Heriberto Hernández (R)10.7%3.0
5. Javier Sanoja (R)12.3%2.6
6. Kyle Stowers (L)12.9%2.0
7. Leo Jiménez (R)11.4%2.0
8. Brian Navarreto (R)12.2%2.0
9. Owen Caissie (L)14.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
No ER recorded yet today — leaders fill in live as games get underway.
Grades post here as games go final — how often our top-ranked matchups hit, vs the season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Thursday, July 2, 2026
Ian Seymour (TB) is the top earned runs spot on the Thursday, July 2, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.7 ER, with Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Ian Seymour
Ian Seymour (TB) tops the Thursday, July 2, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.7 ER vs KC. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) (84) — about 2.0 ER vs CIN.
Ryan Gusto (MIA) (84) — about 2.0 ER vs COL.
Hurston Waldrep (ATL) (82) — about 2.0 ER vs STL.
Chase Burns (CIN) (69) — about 2.3 ER vs MIL.
Davis Martin (CWS) (67) — about 2.3 ER vs CLE.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Thursday, July 2, 2026)?
Ian Seymour (TB) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.7 ER against KC.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Thursday, July 2, 2026: Ian Seymour (~1.7 ER), Jacob Misiorowski (~2.0 ER), Ryan Gusto (~2.0 ER), Hurston Waldrep (~2.0 ER), Chase Burns (~2.3 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
