MatchWiz Plays Optimizer
Earned Runs · Thursday, July 2, 2026

CIN @ MIL Earned Runs matchups · Thursday, July 2, 2026

CIN
CIN
Cincinnati Reds
vs
2:10 PM EDT
MIL
Milwaukee Brewers
MIL
American Family FieldElevation 597 ftCenter Field 400 ft

CIN Chase Burns · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate8.9% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.4%
vs RHB7.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

MIL lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Jackson Chourio (R)13.1%3.0 PA
2Brice Turang (L)14.7%3.0 PA
3William Contreras (R)13.2%3.0 PA
4Jake Bauers (L)16.9%3.0 PA
5Andrew Vaughn (R)9.2%2.9 PA
6Garrett Mitchell (L)14.0%2.0 PA
7Gary Sánchez (R)11.6%2.0 PA
8Cooper Pratt (R)11.7%2.0 PA
9Joey Ortiz (R)12.2%2.0 PA

MIL Jacob Misiorowski · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate6.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB6.0%
vs RHB8.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.4 BF

Expected batters faced24.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.0 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

CIN lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Elly De La Cruz (L)14.3%3.0 PA
2Sal Stewart (R)12.6%3.0 PA
3Spencer Steer (R)13.4%3.0 PA
4Eugenio Suárez (R)9.5%3.0 PA
5Tyler Stephenson (R)10.2%3.0 PA
6Noelvi Marte (R)11.2%3.0 PA
7Ivan Johnson (L)11.7%2.4 PA
8Matt McLain (R)9.4%2.0 PA
9Edwin Arroyo (L)11.7%2.0 PA