MatchWiz Plays Optimizer
Earned Runs · Thursday, July 2, 2026

TB @ KC Earned Runs matchups · Thursday, July 2, 2026

TB
TB
Tampa Bay Rays
vs
7:40 PM EDT
KC
Kansas City Royals
KC
Kauffman StadiumElevation 856 ftCenter Field 410 ft

TB Ian Seymour · LHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.4% Runs / BF

vs LHB13.1%
vs RHB8.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload15.9 BF

Expected batters faced15.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

KC lineup · K rate vs LHPExp PA
1Lane Thomas (R)10.9%2.0 PA
2Bobby Witt Jr. (R)14.2%2.0 PA
3Jac Caglianone (L)11.5%2.0 PA
4Starling Marte (R)11.2%2.0 PA
5Salvador Perez (R)10.7%2.0 PA
6Carter Jensen (L)12.4%2.0 PA
7Nick Loftin (R)11.1%1.9 PA
8Tyler Tolbert (R)14.9%1.0 PA
9Michael Massey (L)12.0%1.0 PA

KC Stephen Kolek · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate14.9% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.8%
vs RHB14.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.2%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.4 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

TB lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Yandy Díaz (R)13.7%3.0 PA
2Jonathan Aranda (L)13.4%3.0 PA
3Junior Caminero (R)14.1%3.0 PA
4Victor Mesa Jr. (L)12.8%3.0 PA
5Chandler Simpson (L)10.6%3.0 PA
6Cedric Mullins (L)12.0%2.6 PA
7Taylor Walls (L)14.4%2.0 PA
8Richie Palacios (L)11.9%2.0 PA
9Hunter Feduccia (L)11.9%2.0 PA