MatchWiz Plays Optimizer
Earned Runs · Thursday, July 2, 2026

MIA @ COL Earned Runs matchups · Thursday, July 2, 2026

MIA
MIA
Miami Marlins
vs
3:10 PM EDT
COL
Colorado Rockies
COL
Coors FieldElevation 5,190 ftCenter Field 415 ft

MIA Ryan Gusto · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.7% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB11.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload16.8 BF

Expected batters faced16.8
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.0 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

COL lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Jake McCarthy (L)13.0%2.0 PA
2Mickey Moniak (L)12.1%2.0 PA
3Hunter Goodman (R)13.6%2.0 PA
4TJ Rumfield (L)12.0%2.0 PA
5Willi Castro (L)12.8%2.0 PA
6Tyler Freeman (R)11.5%2.0 PA
7Troy Johnston (L)11.4%2.0 PA
8Kyle Karros (R)13.3%1.8 PA
9Ezequiel Tovar (R)9.9%1.0 PA

COL Michael Lorenzen · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate13.4% Runs / BF

vs LHB12.5%
vs RHB13.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

MIA lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Otto Lopez (R)14.1%3.0 PA
2Esteury Ruiz (R)15.8%3.0 PA
3Liam Hicks (L)13.4%3.0 PA
4Heriberto Hernández (R)10.7%3.0 PA
5Javier Sanoja (R)12.3%2.6 PA
6Kyle Stowers (L)12.9%2.0 PA
7Leo Jiménez (R)11.4%2.0 PA
8Brian Navarreto (R)12.2%2.0 PA
9Owen Caissie (L)14.4%2.0 PA