MatchWiz Plays Optimizer
Earned Runs · Friday, July 3, 2026

PIT @ WSH Earned Runs matchups · Friday, July 3, 2026

PIT
PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates
vs
6:45 PM EDT
WSH
Washington Nationals
WSH
Nationals ParkElevation 35 ftCenter Field 402 ft

PIT Mitch Keller · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB14.4%
vs RHB8.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.9 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

WSH lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1James Wood (L)11.7%3.0 PA
2Curtis Mead (R)11.7%3.0 PA
3Andrés Chaparro (R)11.7%3.0 PA
4Dylan Crews (R)11.7%3.0 PA
5Daylen Lile (L)11.7%3.0 PA
6Jacob Young (R)11.7%2.7 PA
7Jorbit Vivas (L)11.7%2.0 PA
8Nasim Nuñez (L)11.7%2.0 PA
9Drew Millas (L)11.7%2.0 PA

WSH Foster Griffin · LHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate7.6% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.7%
vs RHB7.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.9 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

PIT lineup · K rate vs LHPExp PA
1Jake Mangum (R)11.2%3.0 PA
2Brandon Lowe (L)10.8%3.0 PA
3Bryan Reynolds (R)12.1%3.0 PA
4Esmerlyn Valdez (R)11.7%3.0 PA
5Ryan O'Hearn (L)13.1%3.0 PA
6Nick Gonzales (R)11.6%2.3 PA
7Marcell Ozuna (R)9.8%2.0 PA
8Endy Rodríguez (R)9.1%2.0 PA
9Jared Triolo (R)11.3%2.0 PA