Best MLB earned runs matchups — Friday, July 3, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Friday, July 3, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Tap any card for the full breakdown.
PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 25 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
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#Pitcher · MatchupScore
Pitcher earned runs Rate7.6% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.7%
vs RHB7.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake Mangum (R)11.2%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)10.8%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (R)12.1%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)13.1%3.0
6. Nick Gonzales (R)11.6%2.3
7. Marcell Ozuna (R)9.8%2.0
8. Endy Rodríguez (R)9.1%2.0
9. Jared Triolo (R)11.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.0%
vs RHB10.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.5 BF
Expected batters faced20.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)11.7%3.0
2. Juan Soto (L)11.7%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)11.7%2.5
4. Francisco Lindor (L)11.7%2.0
5. A.J. Ewing (L)11.7%2.0
6. Francisco Alvarez (R)11.7%2.0
7. Jared Young (L)11.7%2.0
8. Brett Baty (L)11.7%2.0
9. Tyrone Taylor (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.1%
vs RHB9.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.1 BF
Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shea Langeliers (R)11.9%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)14.6%3.0
3. Colby Thomas (R)11.0%3.0
4. Jonah Heim (L)11.3%2.1
5. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R)11.7%2.0
6. Lawrence Butler (L)13.5%2.0
7. Henry Bolte (R)8.2%2.0
8. Jeff McNeil (L)9.6%2.0
9. Alika Williams (R)14.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.1%
vs RHB11.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.4 BF
Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)9.3%3.0
2. Chase DeLauter (L)10.8%3.0
3. Kyle Manzardo (L)9.0%3.0
4. Kahlil Watson (L)11.7%3.0
5. Brayan Rocchio (R)10.8%2.4
6. Cooper Ingle (L)11.7%2.0
7. Gabriel Arias (R)9.8%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (R)11.3%2.0
9. Steven Kwan (L)10.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload18.4 BF
Expected batters faced18.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)13.3%2.4
2. Otto Lopez (R)14.1%2.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L)12.8%2.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L)12.2%2.0
5. Griffin Conine (L)12.8%2.0
6. Owen Caissie (L)14.3%2.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L)10.0%2.0
8. Javier Sanoja (R)12.1%2.0
9. Joe Mack (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.9 BF
Expected batters faced19.9
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ben Rice (L)11.7%3.0
2. Jasson Domínguez (L)11.7%2.9
3. Cody Bellinger (L)11.7%2.0
4. Amed Rosario (R)11.7%2.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
6. Anthony Volpe (R)11.7%2.0
7. Austin Wells (L)11.7%2.0
8. José Caballero (R)11.7%2.0
9. Oswaldo Cabrera (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.7%
vs RHB9.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jose Altuve (R)12.6%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)15.3%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)10.7%3.0
4. Christian Walker (R)10.7%3.0
5. Cam Smith (R)11.2%3.0
6. Taylor Trammell (L)12.6%2.9
7. Yainer Diaz (R)9.3%2.0
8. Joey Loperfido (L)11.0%2.0
9. Raynel Delgado (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.8%
vs RHB12.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.2 BF
Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)12.6%3.0
2. Casey Schmitt (R)10.9%3.0
3. Bryce Eldridge (L)11.7%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)14.0%2.2
5. Heliot Ramos (R)12.6%2.0
6. Jung Hoo Lee (L)14.5%2.0
7. Victor Bericoto (R)11.7%2.0
8. Drew Cavanaugh (L)11.7%2.0
9. Christian Koss (R)11.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.7%
vs RHB9.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.6 BF
Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (R)16.7%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (R)11.0%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)12.9%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)11.7%2.6
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)10.4%2.0
6. Adrian Del Castillo (L)9.4%2.0
7. Nolan Arenado (R)14.6%2.0
8. Pavin Smith (L)11.7%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)18.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.1%
vs RHB11.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.9 BF
Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (R)11.6%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)11.4%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)10.5%3.0
4. Eugenio Suárez (R)11.5%3.0
5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)9.9%2.9
6. Noelvi Marte (R)13.2%2.0
7. Edwin Arroyo (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jose Trevino (R)12.9%2.0
9. TJ Friedl (L)10.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.0 BF
Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)12.9%3.0
2. Vaughn Grissom (R)10.7%3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L)13.8%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)11.5%3.0
5. Wade Meckler (L)11.0%2.0
6. Jo Adell (R)11.6%2.0
7. Josh Lowe (L)8.1%2.0
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)11.0%2.0
9. Donovan Walton (L)13.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.0%
vs RHB10.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.9 BF
Expected batters faced20.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Nathan Lukes (L)11.7%3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
3. Kazuma Okamoto (R)11.7%2.9
4. Daulton Varsho (L)11.7%2.0
5. Alejandro Kirk (R)11.7%2.0
6. Yohendrick Piñango (L)11.7%2.0
7. Ernie Clement (R)11.7%2.0
8. Sean Keys (L)11.7%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.5%
vs RHB11.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)16.9%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)13.7%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)14.4%3.0
4. Max Muncy (L)13.3%3.0
5. Kyle Tucker (L)13.1%3.0
6. Tommy Edman (L)9.9%2.7
7. Alex Freeland (L)12.4%2.0
8. Miguel Rojas (R)9.5%2.0
9. Chuckie Robinson (R)9.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.2%
vs RHB8.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Drake Baldwin (L)13.4%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)15.8%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)12.8%3.0
4. Michael Harris II (L)11.0%2.5
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)12.6%2.0
6. Dominic Smith (L)11.7%2.0
7. Austin Riley (R)10.0%2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)11.0%2.0
9. Jim Jarvis (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.9 BF
Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)10.3%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)12.3%3.0
3. Josh Naylor (L)11.2%3.0
4. Randy Arozarena (R)13.7%3.0
5. Cal Raleigh (L)11.8%2.9
6. Cole Young (L)13.1%2.0
7. Colt Emerson (L)10.5%2.0
8. Victor Robles (R)10.4%2.0
9. Weston Wilson (R)11.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.2%
vs RHB10.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.2 BF
Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Gunnar Henderson (L)11.7%3.0
2. Adley Rutschman (L)11.7%3.0
3. Taylor Ward (R)11.7%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)11.7%3.0
5. Coby Mayo (R)11.7%2.2
6. Tyler O'Neill (R)11.7%2.0
7. Leody Taveras (L)11.7%2.0
8. Jackson Holliday (L)11.7%2.0
9. Blaze Alexander (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.7%
vs RHB11.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.4 BF
Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)11.7%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)11.7%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)11.7%3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)11.7%3.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)11.7%2.4
7. Michael Conforto (L)11.7%2.0
8. Miguel Amaya (R)11.7%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.1%
vs RHB11.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.6 BF
Expected batters faced20.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)9.6%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)12.6%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)10.0%2.6
4. Jordan Walker (R)12.7%2.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)12.6%2.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)12.6%2.0
7. Nathan Church (L)12.4%2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)11.7%2.0
9. Jimmy Crooks (L)11.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)12.2%3.0
2. Gavin Sheets (L)13.0%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)12.8%3.0
4. Ty France (R)12.3%3.0
5. Jackson Merrill (L)11.8%3.0
6. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.9%2.9
7. Jake Cronenworth (L)11.3%2.0
8. Rodolfo Durán (R)11.7%2.0
9. Sung-Mun Song (L)13.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.4%
vs RHB11.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (R)11.7%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)11.7%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)11.7%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)11.7%3.0
5. Romy Gonzalez (R)11.7%3.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)11.7%2.8
7. Nate Eaton (R)11.7%2.0
8. Andruw Monasterio (R)11.7%2.0
9. Connor Wong (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB14.4%
vs RHB8.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)11.7%3.0
2. Curtis Mead (R)11.7%3.0
3. Andrés Chaparro (R)11.7%3.0
4. Dylan Crews (R)11.7%3.0
5. Daylen Lile (L)11.7%3.0
6. Jacob Young (R)11.7%2.7
7. Jorbit Vivas (L)11.7%2.0
8. Nasim Nuñez (L)11.7%2.0
9. Drew Millas (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)13.4%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)13.8%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)14.3%3.0
4. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)13.3%3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L)10.4%3.0
6. Cedric Mullins (L)12.3%2.3
7. Taylor Walls (L)14.1%2.0
8. Richie Palacios (L)11.6%2.0
9. Hunter Feduccia (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.0 BF
Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)15.5%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)13.1%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)14.3%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)13.4%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)17.0%2.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L)13.7%2.0
7. Sal Frelick (L)12.0%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)11.7%2.0
9. David Hamilton (L)12.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.7%
vs RHB11.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.9 BF
Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)14.8%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L)14.7%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)13.4%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)13.8%3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)10.8%2.9
6. Victor Caratini (L)12.1%2.0
7. Ryan Kreidler (R)14.1%2.0
8. Tristan Gray (L)9.8%2.0
9. Luke Keaschall (R)15.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.9%
vs RHB10.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)16.3%3.0
2. Miguel Vargas (R)12.9%3.0
3. Kyle Teel (L)12.2%3.0
4. Andrew Benintendi (L)12.0%3.0
5. Colson Montgomery (L)13.0%3.0
6. Braden Montgomery (L)11.7%2.5
7. Chase Meidroth (R)13.0%2.0
8. Tristan Peters (L)13.4%2.0
9. Jacob Gonzalez (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
No ER recorded yet today — leaders fill in live as games get underway.
Grades post here as games go final — how often our top-ranked matchups hit, vs the season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Friday, July 3, 2026
Foster Griffin (WSH) is the top earned runs spot on the Friday, July 3, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.9 ER, with Grant Holmes (ATL) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Foster Griffin
Foster Griffin (WSH) tops the Friday, July 3, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.9 ER vs PIT. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Grant Holmes (ATL) (89) — about 2.0 ER vs NYM.
Tyler Phillips (MIA) (85) — about 2.1 ER vs ATH.
Anthony Kay (CWS) (77) — about 2.2 ER vs CLE.
Jack Perkins (ATH) (73) — about 2.2 ER vs MIA.
Mike Paredes (MIN) (72) — about 2.2 ER vs NYY.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Friday, July 3, 2026)?
Foster Griffin (WSH) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.9 ER against PIT.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Friday, July 3, 2026: Foster Griffin (~1.9 ER), Grant Holmes (~2.0 ER), Tyler Phillips (~2.1 ER), Anthony Kay (~2.2 ER), Jack Perkins (~2.2 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
