MatchWiz Plays Optimizer
Earned Runs · Friday, July 3, 2026

TOR @ SEA Earned Runs matchups · Friday, July 3, 2026

TOR
TOR
Toronto Blue Jays
vs
10:10 PM EDT
SEA
Seattle Mariners
SEA
T-Mobile ParkElevation 10 ftCenter Field 405 ft

TOR Dylan Cease · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

SEA lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1J.P. Crawford (L)10.3%3.0 PA
2Julio Rodríguez (R)12.3%3.0 PA
3Josh Naylor (L)11.2%3.0 PA
4Randy Arozarena (R)13.7%3.0 PA
5Cal Raleigh (L)11.8%2.9 PA
6Cole Young (L)13.1%2.0 PA
7Colt Emerson (L)10.5%2.0 PA
8Victor Robles (R)10.4%2.0 PA
9Weston Wilson (R)11.1%2.0 PA

SEA Luis Castillo · RHP

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.5% Runs / BF

vs LHB12.0%
vs RHB10.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.9 BF

Expected batters faced20.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

TOR lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA
1Nathan Lukes (L)11.7%3.0 PA
2Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)11.7%3.0 PA
3Kazuma Okamoto (R)11.7%2.9 PA
4Daulton Varsho (L)11.7%2.0 PA
5Alejandro Kirk (R)11.7%2.0 PA
6Yohendrick Piñango (L)11.7%2.0 PA
7Ernie Clement (R)11.7%2.0 PA
8Sean Keys (L)11.7%2.0 PA
9Andrés Giménez (L)11.7%2.0 PA