Earned Runs Board · Today
Best MLB earned runs matchups — Thursday, July 9, 2026 Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, July 9, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Tap any card for the full breakdown.
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PROJ Some lineups aren't official yet — 24 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
# Pitcher · Matchup Score
1
Logan Henderson⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs STL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.4% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.7%
vs RHB 7.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 19.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 19.9 BF Expected batters faced 19.9
From recent starts 5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 1.8 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Masyn Winn (R) 11.9% 3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R) 13.3% 2.9
3. Jordan Walker (R) 13.7% 2.0
4. Nelson Velázquez (R) 14.4% 2.0
5. Alec Burleson (L) 12.9% 2.0
6. José Fermín (R) 9.7% 2.0
7. Blaze Jordan (R) 10.8% 2.0
8. Lars Nootbaar (L) 11.0% 2.0
9. Pedro Pagés (R) 10.5% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Logan Henderson's full player page → 2
Bryce Miller⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs MIA lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 7.9% Runs / BF vs LHB 7.3%
vs RHB 9.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 23.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.0 BF Expected batters faced 21.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.1 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Liam Hicks (L) 16.1% 3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R) 15.4% 3.0
3. Xavier Edwards (L) 12.4% 3.0
4. Kyle Stowers (L) 13.8% 2.0
5. Owen Caissie (L) 14.3% 2.0
6. Heriberto Hernández (R) 11.8% 2.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L) 10.5% 2.0
8. Joe Mack (L) 14.6% 2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R) 12.5% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Bryce Miller's full player page → 3
Drew Rasmussen⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs NYY lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.3%
vs RHB 7.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.0 BF Expected batters faced 23.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.1 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Paul Goldschmidt (R) 10.2% 3.0
2. Ben Rice (L) 14.1% 3.0
3. Amed Rosario (R) 13.3% 3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L) 10.6% 3.0
5. Jasson Domínguez (L) 10.2% 3.0
6. Anthony Volpe (R) 10.8% 2.0
7. Max Schuemann (R) 13.7% 2.0
8. Austin Wells (L) 9.4% 2.0
9. José Caballero (R) 11.1% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Drew Rasmussen's full player page → 4
Jesús Luzardo⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs CIN lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.9% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.0%
vs RHB 9.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 19.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.5 BF Expected batters faced 24.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Elly De La Cruz (R) 11.1% 3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R) 10.7% 3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L) 10.7% 3.0
4. Eugenio Suárez (R) 11.1% 3.0
5. Spencer Steer (R) 13.1% 3.0
6. Noelvi Marte (R) 12.8% 3.0
7. Jose Trevino (R) 12.7% 2.5
8. Edwin Arroyo (R) 11.7% 2.0
9. TJ Friedl (L) 10.4% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Jesús Luzardo's full player page → 5
Ryan Feltner⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SF lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.2% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.4%
vs RHB 11.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.3 BF Expected batters faced 21.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Heliot Ramos (R) 13.0% 3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L) 11.6% 3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R) 10.8% 3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L) 16.5% 2.3
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L) 13.9% 2.0
6. Willy Adames (R) 12.1% 2.0
7. Bryce Eldridge (L) 10.7% 2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L) 12.0% 2.0
9. Eric Haase (R) 12.3% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Ryan Feltner's full player page → 6
Michael Wacha⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs NYM lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.7% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.1%
vs RHB 12.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 10.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 25.8 BF Expected batters faced 25.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. A.J. Ewing (L) 13.1% 3.0
2. Juan Soto (L) 14.3% 3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R) 12.4% 3.0
4. Francisco Lindor (L) 12.4% 3.0
5. Carson Benge (L) 12.4% 3.0
6. Jorge Polanco (L) 10.6% 3.0
7. Jared Young (L) 11.4% 3.0
8. Brett Baty (L) 10.3% 2.8
9. Francisco Alvarez (R) 10.8% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Michael Wacha's full player page → 7
Trevor Rogers⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs CHC lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.6% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.3%
vs RHB 10.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 9.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.9 BF Expected batters faced 22.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) 12.3% 3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R) 11.6% 3.0
3. Michael Busch (L) 9.0% 3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R) 12.4% 3.0
5. Ian Happ (R) 12.6% 2.9
6. Nico Hoerner (R) 12.2% 2.0
7. Michael Conforto (L) 14.9% 2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R) 12.8% 2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R) 16.0% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Trevor Rogers's full player page → 8
Anthony Kay⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs BOS lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.7% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.3%
vs RHB 10.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 7.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.6 BF Expected batters faced 21.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Anthony Seigler (R) 12.5% 3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R) 13.4% 3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L) 15.3% 3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R) 14.2% 2.6
5. Masataka Yoshida (L) 11.5% 2.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R) 11.2% 2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L) 11.4% 2.0
8. Carlos Narváez (R) 12.6% 2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L) 10.8% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Anthony Kay's full player page → 9
Patrick Sandoval⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs CWS lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.8%
vs RHB 10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.0 BF Expected batters faced 23.0
From recent starts 0
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Miguel Vargas (R) 13.4% 3.0
2. Randal Grichuk (R) 12.5% 3.0
3. Colson Montgomery (L) 10.8% 3.0
4. Chase Meidroth (R) 13.8% 3.0
5. Sam Antonacci (L) 11.7% 3.0
6. Braden Montgomery (R) 12.0% 2.0
7. Junior Perez (R) 11.7% 2.0
8. Kyle Teel (L) 11.0% 2.0
9. Luisangel Acuña (R) 9.4% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Patrick Sandoval's full player page → 10
Nathan Eovaldi⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs LAA lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.6% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.7%
vs RHB 10.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 20.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 25.3 BF Expected batters faced 25.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.7 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Zach Neto (R) 13.8% 3.0
2. Mike Trout (R) 15.3% 3.0
3. Vaughn Grissom (R) 12.6% 3.0
4. Jo Adell (R) 9.8% 3.0
5. Denzer Guzman (R) 8.2% 3.0
6. Oswald Peraza (R) 9.1% 3.0
7. Jose Siri (R) 14.7% 3.0
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R) 9.4% 2.3
9. Josh Lowe (L) 10.8% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Nathan Eovaldi's full player page → 11
Gavin Williams⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs MIN lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.5% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.4%
vs RHB 12.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.0 BF Expected batters faced 23.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.7 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trevor Larnach (L) 13.9% 3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L) 13.4% 3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L) 15.7% 3.0
4. Josh Bell (L) 12.6% 3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R) 10.2% 3.0
6. Victor Caratini (L) 10.2% 2.0
7. Luke Keaschall (R) 15.5% 2.0
8. Alan Roden (L) 10.7% 2.0
9. Ryan Kreidler (R) 12.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Gavin Williams's full player page → 12
David Peterson⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs BAL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 15.7% Runs / BF vs LHB 15.5%
vs RHB 13.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 6.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.7 BF Expected batters faced 20.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.8 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 10.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Gunnar Henderson (L) 8.6% 3.0
2. Adley Rutschman (R) 10.3% 3.0
3. Taylor Ward (R) 11.8% 2.7
4. Pete Alonso (R) 9.9% 2.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L) 8.6% 2.0
6. Dylan Beavers (L) 11.2% 2.0
7. Colton Cowser (L) 10.1% 2.0
8. Blaze Alexander (R) 9.4% 2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L) 11.5% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
David Peterson's full player page → 13
Griffin Canning⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs AZ lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 14.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 15.9%
vs RHB 10.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 11.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.1 BF Expected batters faced 20.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.8 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Ketel Marte (L) 11.6% 3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L) 13.2% 3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L) 12.8% 2.1
4. Gabriel Moreno (R) 12.2% 2.0
5. Max Kepler (L) 10.7% 2.0
6. Nolan Arenado (R) 11.3% 2.0
7. Pavin Smith (L) 8.9% 2.0
8. James McCann (R) 9.7% 2.0
9. Tim Tawa (R) 9.2% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Griffin Canning's full player page → 14
Sean Manaea⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs KC lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 13.0% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.3%
vs RHB 13.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 10.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.5 BF Expected batters faced 20.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.8 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Carter Jensen (L) 11.5% 3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R) 13.8% 3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L) 11.6% 2.5
4. Lane Thomas (R) 11.3% 2.0
5. Salvador Perez (R) 10.6% 2.0
6. Michael Massey (L) 10.6% 2.0
7. Nick Loftin (R) 12.0% 2.0
8. Isaac Collins (R) 12.1% 2.0
9. Tyler Tolbert (R) 15.3% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Sean Manaea's full player page → 15
Andre Pallante⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs MIL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.2% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.7%
vs RHB 10.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 10.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.1 BF Expected batters faced 23.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.8 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Christian Yelich (L) 14.3% 3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R) 14.2% 3.0
3. Jake Bauers (L) 15.7% 3.0
4. William Contreras (R) 11.7% 3.0
5. Garrett Mitchell (L) 14.4% 3.0
6. Luis Lara (L) 11.7% 2.1
7. Cooper Pratt (R) 12.8% 2.0
8. Joey Ortiz (R) 11.9% 2.0
9. Greg Jones (L) 8.9% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Andre Pallante's full player page → 16
Framber Valdez⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs ATH lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.7% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.4%
vs RHB 12.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 8.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.2 BF Expected batters faced 24.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.8 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Zack Gelof (R) 13.0% 3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L) 12.6% 3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R) 13.7% 3.0
4. Tyler Soderstrom (L) 10.2% 3.0
5. Jacob Wilson (R) 10.9% 3.0
6. Lawrence Butler (L) 10.4% 3.0
7. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R) 11.7% 2.2
8. Carlos Cortes (L) 11.4% 2.0
9. Henry Bolte (R) 12.2% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Framber Valdez's full player page → 17
Reid Detmers⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs TEX lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.7% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.9%
vs RHB 11.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 18.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.7 BF Expected batters faced 23.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.8 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Joc Pederson (L) 11.0% 3.0
2. Josh Smith (L) 9.5% 3.0
3. Jake Burger (R) 12.0% 3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L) 12.5% 3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R) 10.1% 3.0
6. Evan Carter (L) 14.4% 2.7
7. Alejandro Osuna (L) 12.9% 2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R) 13.1% 2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L) 13.0% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Reid Detmers's full player page → 18
Jack Perkins⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs DET lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 15.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.9%
vs RHB 16.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 18.8 BF Expected batters faced 18.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.9 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Matt Vierling (R) 9.9% 2.8
2. Dillon Dingler (R) 12.5% 2.0
3. Kevin McGonigle (L) 14.4% 2.0
4. Spencer Torkelson (R) 10.5% 2.0
5. Riley Greene (L) 13.7% 2.0
6. Hao-Yu Lee (R) 9.6% 2.0
7. Ben Malgeri (R) 11.7% 2.0
8. Jahmai Jones (R) 11.8% 2.0
9. Zach McKinstry (L) 9.4% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Jack Perkins's full player page → 19
Bailey Ober⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs CLE lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.0% Runs / BF vs LHB 12.7%
vs RHB 11.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.1 BF Expected batters faced 24.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.9 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. David Fry (R) 11.8% 3.0
2. Chase DeLauter (L) 10.5% 3.0
3. Brayan Rocchio (L) 10.6% 3.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R) 10.3% 3.0
5. Travis Bazzana (L) 11.5% 3.0
6. Gabriel Arias (R) 11.1% 3.0
7. Kyle Manzardo (L) 11.8% 2.1
8. Austin Hedges (R) 12.1% 2.0
9. Kahlil Watson (L) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Bailey Ober's full player page → 20
Janson Junk⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SEA lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 13.9%
vs RHB 9.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.2 BF Expected batters faced 23.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. J.P. Crawford (L) 11.4% 3.0
2. Randy Arozarena (R) 14.5% 3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L) 12.7% 3.0
4. Cal Raleigh (L) 11.9% 3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L) 10.5% 3.0
6. Luke Raley (L) 10.3% 2.2
7. Cole Young (L) 13.5% 2.0
8. Victor Robles (R) 11.4% 2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L) 10.5% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Janson Junk's full player page → 21
Brady Singer⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs PHI lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 13.3%
vs RHB 10.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 9.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.5 BF Expected batters faced 22.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Bryce Harper (L) 15.0% 3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L) 13.4% 3.0
3. Brandon Marsh (L) 15.2% 3.0
4. Bryson Stott (L) 13.8% 3.0
5. Alec Bohm (R) 11.8% 2.5
6. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L) 11.7% 2.0
7. Justin Crawford (L) 8.8% 2.0
8. J.T. Realmuto (R) 11.7% 2.0
9. Edmundo Sosa (R) 11.9% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Brady Singer's full player page → 22
Merrill Kelly⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SD lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 13.5%
vs RHB 11.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 25.0 BF Expected batters faced 25.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) 12.8% 3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L) 12.5% 3.0
3. Xander Bogaerts (R) 11.3% 3.0
4. Manny Machado (R) 11.9% 3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L) 11.8% 3.0
6. Jake Cronenworth (L) 11.1% 3.0
7. Luis Campusano (R) 12.6% 3.0
8. Samad Taylor (R) 10.4% 2.0
9. Sung-Mun Song (L) 12.5% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Merrill Kelly's full player page → 23
Bryce Elder⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs PIT lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 12.6%
vs RHB 11.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.3 BF Expected batters faced 24.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jake Mangum (L) 12.6% 3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L) 14.5% 3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L) 15.3% 3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R) 15.4% 3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L) 15.4% 3.0
6. Nick Gonzales (R) 13.4% 3.0
7. Marcell Ozuna (R) 9.4% 2.3
8. Jared Triolo (R) 11.5% 2.0
9. Henry Davis (R) 13.1% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Bryce Elder's full player page → 24
Mitch Keller⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs ATL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 15.3%
vs RHB 8.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.1 BF Expected batters faced 24.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Michael Harris II (L) 12.8% 3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L) 15.8% 3.0
3. Matt Olson (L) 15.3% 3.0
4. Drake Baldwin (L) 13.8% 3.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R) 13.8% 3.0
6. Austin Riley (R) 11.0% 3.0
7. Mike Yastrzemski (L) 11.6% 2.1
8. Joey Bart (R) 11.7% 2.0
9. Jorge Mateo (R) 14.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Mitch Keller's full player page → Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Thursday, July 9, 2026 Logan Henderson (MIL) is the top earned runs spot on the Thursday, July 9, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.8 ER, with Bryce Miller (SEA) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Logan Henderson Logan Henderson (MIL) tops the Thursday, July 9, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.8 ER vs STL. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board Bryce Miller (SEA) (82) — about 2.1 ER vs MIA. Drew Rasmussen (TB) (80) — about 2.1 ER vs NYY. Jesús Luzardo (PHI) (65) — about 2.4 ER vs CIN. Ryan Feltner (COL) (63) — about 2.5 ER vs SF. Michael Wacha (KC) (62) — about 2.5 ER vs NYM. How to read the earned runs board Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Frequently asked questions
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Thursday, July 9, 2026)? Logan Henderson (MIL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.8 ER against STL.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today? The top projected starts on Thursday, July 9, 2026: Logan Henderson (~1.8 ER), Bryce Miller (~2.1 ER), Drew Rasmussen (~2.1 ER), Jesús Luzardo (~2.4 ER), Ryan Feltner (~2.5 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated? Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS? Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks. What the earned runs allowed board is The Earned Runs board projects how many earned runs a starter gives up vs his line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
His run-prevention rate vs the lineup's hand. The park. Projected length of outing. Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here? Efficiently priced — transparency board. It's also a core input to our team run model (moneyline + team totals), where the edge actually lives.
How to use it Read it for who's in line for a clean or rough outing; the bettable version is the team-total board it feeds.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays
