Earned Runs Board · Today
Best MLB earned runs matchups — Wednesday, July 8, 2026 Every starting pitcher on the Wednesday, July 8, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Tap any card for the full breakdown.
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PROJ Some lineups aren't official yet — 29 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
# Pitcher · Matchup Score
1
Steven Cruz⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs NYM lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.2% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.5%
vs RHB 9.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 9.5 BF Expected batters faced 9.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 1.1 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. A.J. Ewing (L) 11.2% 1.6
2. Juan Soto (L) 13.9% 1.0
3. Bo Bichette (R) 12.1% 1.0
4. Francisco Lindor (L) 12.8% 1.0
5. Carson Benge (L) 11.5% 1.0
6. Jorge Polanco (L) 9.0% 1.0
7. Jared Young (L) 11.7% 1.0
8. Brett Baty (L) 10.0% 1.0
9. Luis Torrens (R) 10.5% 1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Steven Cruz's full player page → 2
Troy Melton⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs ATH lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 7.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.5%
vs RHB 7.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 18.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.6 BF Expected batters faced 23.6
From recent starts 7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 1.9 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Zack Gelof (R) 14.0% 3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L) 14.0% 3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R) 11.0% 3.0
4. Jonah Heim (L) 11.2% 3.0
5. Jacob Wilson (R) 11.1% 3.0
6. Colby Thomas (R) 10.4% 2.6
7. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R) 11.7% 2.0
8. Max Muncy (R) 12.8% 2.0
9. Henry Bolte (R) 9.6% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Troy Melton's full player page → 3
Foster Griffin⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs HOU lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 7.4% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.3%
vs RHB 7.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.9 BF Expected batters faced 22.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 1.9 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jose Altuve (R) 12.6% 3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L) 12.0% 3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R) 10.4% 3.0
4. Christian Walker (R) 12.2% 3.0
5. Cam Smith (R) 12.3% 2.9
6. Zach Dezenzo (R) 12.2% 2.0
7. Brice Matthews (R) 10.1% 2.0
8. Nick Allen (R) 13.8% 2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R) 9.6% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Foster Griffin's full player page → 4
Shane McClanahan⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs NYY lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.2% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.1%
vs RHB 8.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.0 BF Expected batters faced 22.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.1 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trent Grisham (L) 12.5% 3.0
2. Paul Goldschmidt (R) 14.4% 3.0
3. Ben Rice (L) 11.4% 3.0
4. Amed Rosario (R) 11.1% 3.0
5. Cody Bellinger (L) 10.8% 2.0
6. José Caballero (R) 14.4% 2.0
7. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 9.8% 2.0
8. Max Schuemann (R) 14.8% 2.0
9. Ali Sánchez (R) 8.8% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Shane McClanahan's full player page → 5
Davis Martin⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs BOS lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.9%
vs RHB 9.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.8 BF Expected batters faced 22.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Anthony Seigler (L) 13.7% 3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R) 11.4% 3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L) 10.4% 3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R) 12.5% 3.0
5. Romy Gonzalez (R) 10.3% 2.8
6. Caleb Durbin (R) 12.8% 2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L) 11.1% 2.0
8. Andruw Monasterio (R) 9.2% 2.0
9. Connor Wong (R) 9.5% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Davis Martin's full player page → 6
Kyle Harrison⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs STL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.0%
vs RHB 10.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 20.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.2 BF Expected batters faced 21.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. JJ Wetherholt (L) 9.9% 3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R) 13.1% 3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L) 9.7% 3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R) 14.0% 2.2
5. Lars Nootbaar (L) 11.5% 2.0
6. Bryan Torres (L) 12.5% 2.0
7. Nathan Church (L) 13.3% 2.0
8. José Fermín (R) 12.7% 2.0
9. Jimmy Crooks (L) 11.2% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Kyle Harrison's full player page → 7
Christian Scott⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs KC lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.4% Runs / BF vs LHB 12.3%
vs RHB 7.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 10.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.4 BF Expected batters faced 21.4
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Carter Jensen (L) 12.4% 3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R) 13.4% 3.0
3. Lane Thomas (R) 9.8% 3.0
4. Salvador Perez (R) 8.3% 2.4
5. Jac Caglianone (L) 11.1% 2.0
6. Nick Loftin (R) 12.2% 2.0
7. Isaac Collins (L) 11.1% 2.0
8. Michael Massey (L) 10.7% 2.0
9. Tyler Tolbert (R) 18.5% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Christian Scott's full player page → 8
Walbert Ureña⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TEX lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.2% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.8%
vs RHB 11.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.7 BF Expected batters faced 23.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 10.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Joc Pederson (L) 12.6% 3.0
2. Josh Smith (L) 9.8% 3.0
3. Jake Burger (R) 11.2% 3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L) 10.5% 3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R) 11.3% 3.0
6. Evan Carter (L) 11.4% 2.7
7. Alejandro Osuna (L) 9.3% 2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R) 9.7% 2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L) 10.9% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Walbert Ureña's full player page → 9
Grant Holmes⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs PIT lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.0% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.8%
vs RHB 10.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 11.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.4 BF Expected batters faced 20.4
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.3 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jake Mangum (L) 12.3% 3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L) 14.2% 3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L) 14.4% 2.4
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R) 14.0% 2.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L) 14.6% 2.0
6. Nick Gonzales (R) 13.7% 2.0
7. Tyler Callihan (L) 13.0% 2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R) 11.8% 2.0
9. Henry Davis (R) 13.5% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Grant Holmes's full player page → 10
Michael King⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs AZ lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 7.8%
vs RHB 11.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.6 BF Expected batters faced 23.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.3 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Ketel Marte (L) 11.7% 3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L) 12.8% 3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L) 13.2% 3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R) 12.4% 3.0
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) 9.3% 3.0
6. Max Kepler (L) 10.9% 2.6
7. Nolan Arenado (R) 11.4% 2.0
8. Ildemaro Vargas (L) 10.7% 2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R) 11.8% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Michael King's full player page → 11
Dylan Cease⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SF lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.7%
vs RHB 9.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 22.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.8 BF Expected batters faced 22.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Heliot Ramos (R) 12.6% 3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L) 11.8% 3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R) 10.9% 3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L) 16.1% 3.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L) 14.1% 2.8
6. Willy Adames (R) 12.3% 2.0
7. Bryce Eldridge (L) 10.9% 2.0
8. Victor Bericoto (R) 11.7% 2.0
9. Eric Haase (R) 12.3% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Dylan Cease's full player page → 12
Chase Burns⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs PHI lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.0%
vs RHB 7.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 20.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.9 BF Expected batters faced 22.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trea Turner (R) 15.6% 3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L) 13.4% 3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L) 14.9% 3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R) 11.8% 3.0
5. Edmundo Sosa (R) 12.0% 2.9
6. J.T. Realmuto (R) 11.8% 2.0
7. Bryson Stott (L) 13.9% 2.0
8. Derek Hill (R) 14.9% 2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L) 8.8% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Chase Burns's full player page → 13
Jose Cabrera⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SD lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.8%
vs RHB 10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.5 BF Expected batters faced 21.5
From recent starts 3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) 12.4% 3.0
2. Jake Cronenworth (L) 10.6% 3.0
3. Manny Machado (R) 12.4% 3.0
4. Gavin Sheets (L) 11.4% 2.5
5. Ty France (R) 10.7% 2.0
6. Jackson Merrill (L) 12.0% 2.0
7. Samad Taylor (R) 10.5% 2.0
8. Sung-Mun Song (L) 12.9% 2.0
9. Rodolfo Durán (R) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Jose Cabrera's full player page → 14
Gabriel Hughes⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs LAD lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.8%
vs RHB 10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.0 BF Expected batters faced 20.0
From recent starts 1
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Shohei Ohtani (L) 15.7% 3.0
2. Andy Pages (R) 13.1% 3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L) 13.6% 2.0
4. Mookie Betts (R) 13.9% 2.0
5. Kyle Tucker (L) 14.2% 2.0
6. Teoscar Hernández (R) 13.0% 2.0
7. Max Muncy (L) 13.5% 2.0
8. Miguel Rojas (R) 9.5% 2.0
9. Dalton Rushing (L) 13.0% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Gabriel Hughes's full player page → 15
Dean Kremer⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs CHC lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.6%
vs RHB 9.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.3 BF Expected batters faced 22.3
From recent starts 3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) 14.6% 3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R) 11.0% 3.0
3. Michael Busch (L) 11.5% 3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R) 13.1% 3.0
5. Ian Happ (L) 14.5% 2.3
6. Nico Hoerner (R) 10.9% 2.0
7. Michael Conforto (L) 12.2% 2.0
8. Dansby Swanson (R) 15.8% 2.0
9. Miguel Amaya (R) 13.5% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Dean Kremer's full player page → 16
Logan Webb⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TOR lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.0% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.3%
vs RHB 11.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.9 BF Expected batters faced 23.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Ernie Clement (R) 9.8% 3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L) 10.6% 3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R) 11.0% 3.0
4. Kazuma Okamoto (R) 12.3% 3.0
5. Sean Keys (L) 11.7% 3.0
6. Alejandro Kirk (R) 8.5% 2.9
7. Daulton Varsho (L) 10.8% 2.0
8. Myles Straw (R) 17.0% 2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L) 9.8% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Logan Webb's full player page → 17
Tyler Phillips⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SEA lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.5% Runs / BF vs LHB 12.0%
vs RHB 8.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 9.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.6 BF Expected batters faced 21.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. J.P. Crawford (L) 11.1% 3.0
2. Randy Arozarena (R) 14.3% 3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L) 13.2% 3.0
4. Cal Raleigh (L) 11.5% 2.6
5. Josh Naylor (L) 10.2% 2.0
6. Luke Raley (L) 10.5% 2.0
7. Cole Young (L) 13.1% 2.0
8. Victor Robles (R) 11.7% 2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L) 10.8% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Tyler Phillips's full player page → 18
Michael McGreevy⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs MIL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.5%
vs RHB 8.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.2 BF Expected batters faced 23.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Christian Yelich (L) 14.6% 3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R) 13.6% 3.0
3. Brice Turang (L) 14.3% 3.0
4. William Contreras (R) 11.6% 3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L) 16.1% 3.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L) 14.6% 2.2
7. Sal Frelick (L) 11.6% 2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R) 11.3% 2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R) 12.1% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Michael McGreevy's full player page → 19
Jake Bennett⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs CWS lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.8%
vs RHB 10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.6 BF Expected batters faced 22.6
From recent starts 7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Miguel Vargas (R) 13.8% 3.0
2. Randal Grichuk (R) 13.3% 3.0
3. Colson Montgomery (L) 11.0% 3.0
4. Chase Meidroth (R) 13.1% 3.0
5. Sam Antonacci (L) 12.2% 2.6
6. Junior Perez (R) 11.7% 2.0
7. Kyle Teel (L) 11.4% 2.0
8. Luisangel Acuña (R) 9.6% 2.0
9. Tristan Peters (L) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Jake Bennett's full player page → 20
George Kirby⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs MIA lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.5% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.5%
vs RHB 11.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 18.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.9 BF Expected batters faced 24.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.7 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Liam Hicks (L) 15.8% 3.0
2. Kyle Stowers (L) 14.1% 3.0
3. Otto Lopez (R) 16.0% 3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L) 12.1% 3.0
5. Griffin Conine (L) 11.3% 3.0
6. Owen Caissie (L) 14.3% 3.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L) 10.7% 2.9
8. Joe Mack (L) 14.6% 2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R) 11.8% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
George Kirby's full player page → 21
Colin Rea⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs BAL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.7% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.2%
vs RHB 10.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 11.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.4 BF Expected batters faced 23.4
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.8 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Taylor Ward (R) 11.4% 3.0
2. Adley Rutschman (L) 11.6% 3.0
3. Gunnar Henderson (L) 14.6% 3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R) 14.0% 3.0
5. Coby Mayo (R) 9.4% 3.0
6. Samuel Basallo (L) 12.4% 2.4
7. Blaze Alexander (R) 12.0% 2.0
8. Dylan Beavers (L) 12.8% 2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L) 11.9% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Colin Rea's full player page → 22
Slade Cecconi⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs MIN lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.2% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.6%
vs RHB 12.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 11.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.7 BF Expected batters faced 22.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.9 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Austin Martin (R) 11.9% 3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L) 13.6% 3.0
3. Josh Bell (L) 12.5% 3.0
4. Royce Lewis (R) 10.1% 3.0
5. Victor Caratini (L) 10.2% 2.7
6. Kody Clemens (L) 15.5% 2.0
7. Ryan Kreidler (R) 12.6% 2.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R) 15.7% 2.0
9. Kyler Fedko (R) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Slade Cecconi's full player page → 23
Gerrit Cole⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TB lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.5% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.8%
vs RHB 10.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.6 BF Expected batters faced 22.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.9 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Yandy Díaz (R) 11.5% 3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L) 12.8% 3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R) 14.3% 3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L) 12.9% 3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L) 12.0% 2.6
6. Victor Mesa Jr. (L) 12.6% 2.0
7. Taylor Walls (L) 15.1% 2.0
8. Richie Palacios (L) 11.9% 2.0
9. Hunter Feduccia (L) 10.2% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Gerrit Cole's full player page → 24
Jared Jones⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs ATL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 14.0%
vs RHB 9.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 19.5 BF Expected batters faced 19.5
From recent starts 7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.0 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Michael Harris II (L) 12.3% 3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L) 15.8% 2.5
3. Matt Olson (L) 14.9% 2.0
4. Drake Baldwin (L) 13.9% 2.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R) 13.9% 2.0
6. Dominic Smith (L) 12.9% 2.0
7. Austin Riley (R) 10.5% 2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L) 11.7% 2.0
9. Jim Jarvis (L) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Jared Jones's full player page → 25
MacKenzie Gore⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs LAA lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.0% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.8%
vs RHB 12.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.1 BF Expected batters faced 24.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.0 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Zach Neto (R) 14.1% 3.0
2. Nolan Schanuel (L) 11.9% 3.0
3. Denzer Guzman (R) 11.7% 3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R) 10.7% 3.0
5. Josh Lowe (L) 11.1% 3.0
6. Jo Adell (R) 11.5% 3.0
7. Oswald Peraza (R) 12.8% 2.1
8. Wade Meckler (L) 10.8% 2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R) 10.6% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
MacKenzie Gore's full player page → 26
Connor Prielipp⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs CLE lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 14.8%
vs RHB 9.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.9 BF Expected batters faced 23.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.0 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Travis Bazzana (L) 9.7% 3.0
2. Kahlil Watson (L) 11.7% 3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L) 10.9% 3.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L) 9.0% 3.0
5. Rhys Hoskins (R) 11.3% 3.0
6. Brayan Rocchio (R) 11.7% 2.9
7. Daniel Schneemann (L) 12.8% 2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (R) 11.2% 2.0
9. Steven Kwan (L) 11.0% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Connor Prielipp's full player page → 27
Spencer Arrighetti⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs WSH lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.1%
vs RHB 12.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 16.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.5 BF Expected batters faced 22.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. James Wood (L) 17.6% 3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L) 16.7% 3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R) 13.2% 3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L) 14.1% 3.0
5. Keibert Ruiz (L) 13.5% 2.5
6. Daylen Lile (L) 13.1% 2.0
7. Nasim Nuñez (L) 12.5% 2.0
8. Jorbit Vivas (L) 11.3% 2.0
9. Jacob Young (R) 11.2% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Spencer Arrighetti's full player page → 28
Jeffrey Springs⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs DET lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 13.9% Runs / BF vs LHB 12.9%
vs RHB 13.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 11.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.4 BF Expected batters faced 22.4
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.3 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Kevin McGonigle (L) 11.8% 3.0
2. Colt Keith (L) 13.3% 3.0
3. Riley Greene (L) 9.3% 3.0
4. Dillon Dingler (R) 12.1% 3.0
5. Kerry Carpenter (L) 13.1% 2.4
6. Zach McKinstry (L) 12.9% 2.0
7. Spencer Torkelson (R) 12.8% 2.0
8. James Outman (L) 16.9% 2.0
9. Matt Vierling (R) 11.0% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Jeffrey Springs's full player page → 29
Roki Sasaki⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs COL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 14.2% Runs / BF vs LHB 14.4%
vs RHB 12.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 11.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.9 BF Expected batters faced 21.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Willi Castro (L) 12.0% 3.0
2. Kyle Karros (R) 15.4% 3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R) 15.4% 3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L) 13.1% 2.9
5. Cole Carrigg (L) 18.0% 2.0
6. Tyler Freeman (R) 10.4% 2.0
7. Jake McCarthy (L) 12.6% 2.0
8. Troy Johnston (L) 11.6% 2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R) 10.5% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Roki Sasaki's full player page → Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Wednesday, July 8, 2026 Steven Cruz (KC) is the top earned runs spot on the Wednesday, July 8, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.1 ER, with Troy Melton (DET) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Steven Cruz Steven Cruz (KC) tops the Wednesday, July 8, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.1 ER vs NYM. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board Troy Melton (DET) (66) — about 1.9 ER vs ATH. Foster Griffin (WSH) (66) — about 1.9 ER vs HOU. Shane McClanahan (TB) (58) — about 2.1 ER vs NYY. Davis Martin (CWS) (56) — about 2.2 ER vs BOS. Kyle Harrison (MIL) (55) — about 2.2 ER vs STL. How to read the earned runs board Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Frequently asked questions
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Wednesday, July 8, 2026)? Steven Cruz (KC) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.1 ER against NYM.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today? The top projected starts on Wednesday, July 8, 2026: Steven Cruz (~1.1 ER), Troy Melton (~1.9 ER), Foster Griffin (~1.9 ER), Shane McClanahan (~2.1 ER), Davis Martin (~2.2 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated? Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS? Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks. What the earned runs allowed board is The Earned Runs board projects how many earned runs a starter gives up vs his line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
His run-prevention rate vs the lineup's hand. The park. Projected length of outing. Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here? Efficiently priced — transparency board. It's also a core input to our team run model (moneyline + team totals), where the edge actually lives.
How to use it Read it for who's in line for a clean or rough outing; the bettable version is the team-total board it feeds.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays
