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Best MLB earned runs matchups — Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Wednesday, July 8, 2026 slate — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Our top 5 starts went 3/5 (60%) on the mark, against 54% on the season.

Top 5
3/560%
season 54%
Top 10
6/1060%
season 52%
Full slate
17/2959%
season 51%

Top call Steven Cruz came through. Alan Rangel didn't.

Final · 10–0TORTORawaySFSFhomeTop matchup48Final · 9–7CHCCHCawayBALBALhomeTop matchup44Final · 1–6ATHATHawayDETDEThomeTop matchup65Final · 3–0ATLATLawayPITPIThomeTop matchup51Final · 0–2SEASEAawayMIAMIAhomeTop matchup37Final · 0–3NYYNYYawayTBTBhomeTop matchup63Final · 2–8HOUHOUawayWSHWSHhomeTop matchup64Final · 2–6KCKCawayNYMNYMhomeTop matchup100Final · 5–11PHIPHIawayCINCINhomeTop matchup64Final · 5–0BOSBOSawayCWSCWShomeTop matchup59Final · 5–6CLECLEawayMINMINhomeTop matchup39Final · 1–5MILMILawaySTLSTLhomeTop matchup52Final · 13–1LAALAAawayTEXTEXhomeTop matchup55Final · 4–10AZAZawaySDSDhomeTop matchup51Final · 3–4COLCOLawayLADLADhomeTop matchup44
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.2% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.5%
vs RHB9.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload9.5 BF

Expected batters faced9.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.1 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. A.J. Ewing (L)13.1%1.6
2. Juan Soto (L)14.3%1.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)12.4%1.0
4. Francisco Lindor (L)12.4%1.0
5. Carson Benge (L)12.4%1.0
6. Jorge Polanco (L)10.6%1.0
7. Jared Young (L)11.4%1.0
8. Brett Baty (L)10.3%1.0
9. Francisco Alvarez (R)10.8%1.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
FANFanatics+100-140

We project 1.1 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Steven Cruz's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate7.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.5%
vs RHB7.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.0 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zack Gelof (R)13.8%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)13.9%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)10.9%3.0
4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)12.4%3.0
5. Jacob Wilson (R)10.9%3.0
6. Lawrence Butler (L)13.2%2.6
7. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R)12.1%2.0
8. Carlos Cortes (L)11.0%2.0
9. Henry Bolte (R)10.2%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
BOVBovada+115-155
DKDraftKings-102-130
FANFanatics+100-140

We project 2.0 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Troy Melton's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.9% Runs / BF

vs LHB12.1%
vs RHB7.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.7 BF

Expected batters faced19.7
From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.0 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (L)12.9%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)13.4%2.7
3. JJ Bleday (L)10.9%2.0
4. Eugenio Suárez (R)10.9%2.0
5. Spencer Steer (R)13.5%2.0
6. Noelvi Marte (R)11.4%2.0
7. Jose Trevino (R)11.2%2.0
8. Edwin Arroyo (L)11.7%2.0
9. TJ Friedl (L)10.2%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135-105

We project 2.0 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Alan Rangel's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate7.6% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.3%
vs RHB8.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.0 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jose Altuve (R)12.2%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)11.6%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)10.0%3.0
4. Christian Walker (R)13.6%3.0
5. Cam Smith (R)11.8%2.9
6. Yainer Diaz (R)12.0%2.0
7. Brice Matthews (R)10.8%2.0
8. Zach Dezenzo (R)14.5%2.0
9. Nick Allen (R)13.2%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-125
DKDraftKings-114-116
FANFanatics-130-110

We project 2.0 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Foster Griffin's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate8.2% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.1%
vs RHB8.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.1 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Paul Goldschmidt (R)14.1%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)11.9%3.0
3. Amed Rosario (R)11.1%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)10.7%3.0
5. Jasson Domínguez (R)10.7%2.0
6. Anthony Volpe (R)11.6%2.0
7. Max Schuemann (R)15.6%2.0
8. Austin Wells (L)8.6%2.0
9. José Caballero (R)13.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+100
DKDraftKings-135+102
FANFanatics-140+100

We project 2.1 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Shane McClanahan's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate8.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.9%
vs RHB9.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.2 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (L)13.7%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)11.5%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)10.1%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)12.2%3.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)11.8%2.8
6. Caleb Durbin (R)13.0%2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L)11.1%2.0
8. Carlos Narváez (R)8.7%2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L)11.5%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140
DKDraftKings+108-144

We project 2.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Davis Martin's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.2% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.8%
vs RHB11.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)12.6%3.0
2. Josh Smith (L)10.3%3.0
3. Jake Burger (R)11.2%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)9.6%3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)11.4%3.0
6. Evan Carter (L)12.0%2.7
7. Alejandro Osuna (L)10.7%2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R)9.6%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)10.9%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-145
DKDraftKings+107-143
FANFanatics+105-150

We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Walbert Ureña's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.0% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.9%
vs RHB10.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Masyn Winn (R)12.0%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)12.7%3.0
3. Jordan Walker (R)14.5%3.0
4. Nelson Velázquez (R)12.4%2.2
5. Alec Burleson (L)9.3%2.0
6. José Fermín (R)12.2%2.0
7. Blaze Jordan (R)11.6%2.0
8. Lars Nootbaar (L)11.5%2.0
9. Pedro Pagés (R)9.3%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+105
DKDraftKings-166+124

We project 2.3 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Kyle Harrison's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.2% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.4%
vs RHB12.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.4 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)11.6%3.0
2. Ildemaro Vargas (L)10.7%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)12.8%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)12.2%3.0
5. Max Kepler (L)10.7%3.0
6. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)9.4%2.6
7. Nolan Arenado (R)11.3%2.0
8. Pavin Smith (L)8.9%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)11.6%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings-157+118

We project 2.4 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Michael King's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.2% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.1%
vs RHB10.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.4 BF

Expected batters faced20.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.4 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake Mangum (L)12.6%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)14.5%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)15.3%2.4
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)15.4%2.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)15.4%2.0
6. Nick Gonzales (R)13.4%2.0
7. Marcell Ozuna (R)9.4%2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R)11.5%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)13.1%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-110
DKDraftKings-113-117
FANFanatics-125-115

We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Grant Holmes's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.4% Runs / BF

vs LHB12.3%
vs RHB7.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.4 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)12.2%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)13.6%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)11.6%3.0
4. Lane Thomas (R)10.4%2.4
5. Salvador Perez (R)8.8%2.0
6. Michael Massey (L)12.7%2.0
7. Nick Loftin (R)12.9%2.0
8. Isaac Collins (L)12.2%2.0
9. Tyler Tolbert (R)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-165
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings+110-146

We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Christian Scott's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.4 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)12.8%3.0
2. Jake Cronenworth (L)11.1%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)11.9%3.0
4. Gavin Sheets (L)11.8%2.5
5. Ty France (R)10.9%2.0
6. Jackson Merrill (L)12.5%2.0
7. Samad Taylor (R)10.4%2.0
8. Sung-Mun Song (L)12.5%2.0
9. Rodolfo Durán (R)11.1%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings+108-143
FANFanatics+105-150

We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Jose Cabrera's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate8.9% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.9%
vs RHB9.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.4 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Heliot Ramos (R)13.0%3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L)11.6%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)10.8%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)16.5%3.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)13.9%2.8
6. Willy Adames (R)12.1%2.0
7. Bryce Eldridge (L)10.7%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)12.0%2.0
9. Eric Haase (R)12.3%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-145+105
DKDraftKings-144+109
FANFanatics-140+100

We project 2.4 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Dylan Cease's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate8.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.5%
vs RHB8.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)14.3%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)14.2%3.0
3. Jake Bauers (L)15.7%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)11.7%3.0
5. Garrett Mitchell (L)14.4%3.0
6. Luis Lara (L)11.7%2.2
7. Cooper Pratt (R)12.8%2.0
8. Joey Ortiz (R)11.9%2.0
9. Greg Jones (L)8.9%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-105
DKDraftKings-126-105
FANFanatics-130-110

We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Michael McGreevy's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.6%
vs RHB9.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)14.3%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)10.8%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)11.2%3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)12.8%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)14.2%2.3
6. Nico Hoerner (R)11.2%2.0
7. Michael Conforto (L)11.9%2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R)13.2%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)16.0%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-110
DKDraftKings-129-103

We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Dean Kremer's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.0 BF

Expected batters faced20.0
From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)15.6%3.0
2. Tommy Edman (L)11.2%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)13.0%2.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)14.1%2.0
5. Max Muncy (L)13.4%2.0
6. Teoscar Hernández (R)12.9%2.0
7. Kyle Tucker (L)14.0%2.0
8. Alex Call (R)12.8%2.0
9. Eliezer Alfonzo (L)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Gabriel Hughes's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.0%
vs RHB7.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Bryce Harper (L)15.0%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)13.4%3.0
3. Brandon Marsh (L)15.2%3.0
4. Bryson Stott (L)13.8%3.0
5. Alec Bohm (R)11.8%2.9
6. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
7. Justin Crawford (L)8.8%2.0
8. J.T. Realmuto (R)11.7%2.0
9. Edmundo Sosa (R)11.9%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+130-175
DKDraftKings+131-174
FANFanatics+130-190

We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Chase Burns's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Miguel Vargas (R)13.4%3.0
2. Randal Grichuk (R)12.5%3.0
3. Colson Montgomery (L)10.8%3.0
4. Chase Meidroth (R)13.8%3.0
5. Sam Antonacci (L)11.7%2.6
6. Braden Montgomery (R)12.0%2.0
7. Junior Perez (R)11.7%2.0
8. Kyle Teel (L)11.0%2.0
9. Luisangel Acuña (R)9.4%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140
DKDraftKings+110-146
FANFanatics+100-140

We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Jake Bennett's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB14.8%
vs RHB9.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. David Fry (R)10.7%3.0
2. Chase DeLauter (L)10.8%3.0
3. Brayan Rocchio (R)11.9%3.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)11.4%3.0
5. Travis Bazzana (L)9.8%3.0
6. Gabriel Arias (R)12.3%2.9
7. Kyle Manzardo (L)9.2%2.0
8. Austin Hedges (R)11.1%2.0
9. Kahlil Watson (L)9.6%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+125
DKDraftKings-165+124

We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Connor Prielipp's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.0% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.3%
vs RHB11.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ernie Clement (R)10.3%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)10.4%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)11.4%3.0
4. George Springer (R)12.8%3.0
5. Daulton Varsho (L)10.8%3.0
6. Kazuma Okamoto (R)12.3%2.9
7. Alejandro Kirk (R)8.7%2.0
8. Jonatan Clase (L)13.7%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)9.3%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
DKDraftKings+112-149

We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Logan Webb's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.9%
vs RHB10.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)11.9%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)12.8%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)14.2%3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)12.7%3.0
5. Jonny DeLuca (R)11.6%2.6
6. Chandler Simpson (L)12.0%2.0
7. Ben Williamson (R)12.1%2.0
8. Taylor Walls (L)15.6%2.0
9. Nick Fortes (R)10.0%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-145
BOVBovada+110-150
DKDraftKings+114-151

We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Gerrit Cole's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB12.8%
vs RHB8.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)11.4%3.0
2. Randy Arozarena (R)14.5%3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L)12.7%3.0
4. Cal Raleigh (L)11.9%2.6
5. Josh Naylor (L)10.5%2.0
6. Luke Raley (L)10.3%2.0
7. Cole Young (L)13.5%2.0
8. Victor Robles (R)11.4%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)10.5%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-118
DKDraftKings-107-124
FANFanatics-120-120

We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Tyler Phillips's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.5% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.5%
vs RHB11.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.9 BF

Expected batters faced24.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.8 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)16.1%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)15.4%3.0
3. Xavier Edwards (L)12.4%3.0
4. Kyle Stowers (L)13.8%3.0
5. Owen Caissie (L)14.3%3.0
6. Heriberto Hernández (R)11.8%3.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L)10.5%2.9
8. Joe Mack (L)14.6%2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R)12.5%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
DKDraftKings-112-118

We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

George Kirby's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB14.0%
vs RHB9.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.5 BF

Expected batters faced19.5
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.9 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Michael Harris II (L)12.8%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)15.8%2.5
3. Matt Olson (L)15.3%2.0
4. Drake Baldwin (L)13.8%2.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)13.8%2.0
6. Austin Riley (R)11.0%2.0
7. Mike Yastrzemski (L)11.6%2.0
8. Joey Bart (R)11.7%2.0
9. Jorge Mateo (R)14.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
DKDraftKings+122-162

We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Jared Jones's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.2% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.6%
vs RHB12.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.9 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)13.9%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L)13.4%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)15.7%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)12.6%3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)10.2%2.7
6. Victor Caratini (L)10.2%2.0
7. Luke Keaschall (R)15.5%2.0
8. Alan Roden (L)10.7%2.0
9. Ryan Kreidler (R)12.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
DKDraftKings-118-112
FANFanatics-135-105

We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Slade Cecconi's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.7% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.2%
vs RHB10.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.9 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Gunnar Henderson (L)14.6%3.0
2. Adley Rutschman (L)11.6%3.0
3. Taylor Ward (R)11.5%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)13.9%3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)13.0%3.0
6. Dylan Beavers (L)12.8%2.4
7. Colton Cowser (L)12.1%2.0
8. Blaze Alexander (R)12.7%2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)11.9%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
DKDraftKings-134+101
FANFanatics-155+110

We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Colin Rea's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate13.9% Runs / BF

vs LHB12.9%
vs RHB13.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.1 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Matt Vierling (R)11.8%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)11.9%3.0
3. Kevin McGonigle (L)11.6%3.0
4. Spencer Torkelson (R)13.7%3.0
5. Riley Greene (L)9.2%2.4
6. Hao-Yu Lee (R)9.8%2.0
7. Ben Malgeri (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jahmai Jones (R)9.5%2.0
9. Zach McKinstry (L)14.0%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+115
BOVBovada-160+120
DKDraftKings-135+102

We project 3.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Jeffrey Springs's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.9% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.9%
vs RHB12.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.9%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.1 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)14.1%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)11.7%3.0
3. Vaughn Grissom (R)11.7%3.0
4. Jo Adell (R)11.4%3.0
5. Denzer Guzman (R)11.7%3.0
6. Oswald Peraza (R)12.7%3.0
7. Jose Siri (R)11.7%2.1
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)10.5%2.0
9. Josh Lowe (L)11.1%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-160
DKDraftKings+131-175

We project 3.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

MacKenzie Gore's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.1%
vs RHB12.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.2 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)18.3%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)16.4%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)12.8%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)14.0%3.0
5. Daylen Lile (L)13.0%2.5
6. Dylan Crews (R)12.7%2.0
7. Jorbit Vivas (L)10.9%2.0
8. José Tena (L)11.9%2.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (L)13.4%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-150
DKDraftKings+114-152

We project 3.2 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Spencer Arrighetti's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate14.2% Runs / BF

vs LHB14.4%
vs RHB12.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)12.7%3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L)14.1%3.0
3. Cole Carrigg (L)17.9%3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L)13.1%2.9
5. Kyle Karros (R)15.8%2.0
6. Troy Johnston (L)11.6%2.0
7. Edouard Julien (L)12.3%2.0
8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)10.5%2.0
9. Brett Sullivan (L)10.1%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-160
DKDraftKings+110-147
FANFanatics+115-165

We project 3.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Roki Sasaki's full player page →

What the earned runs allowed board is

The Earned Runs board projects how many earned runs a starter gives up vs his line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • His run-prevention rate vs the lineup's hand.
  • The park.
  • Projected length of outing.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Efficiently priced — transparency board. It's also a core input to our team run model (moneyline + team totals), where the edge actually lives.

How to use it

Read it for who's in line for a clean or rough outing; the bettable version is the team-total board it feeds.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays