Best MLB earned runs matchups — Monday, July 6, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Monday, July 6, 2026 slate — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Results show how each call played out.
How the model did — Monday, July 6, 2026
Our top 5 starts went 5/5 (100%) on our earned-runs over/under, against 51% on the season.
Top 5
5/5100%
season 51%
Top 10
8/1080%
season 53%
Full slate
12/1675%
season 51%
Top call Brandon Pfaadt came through. Landen Roupp didn't.
Each starting pitcher below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average starting pitcher in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →
Share of our top-ranked starts that hit our earned-runs over/under, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
5/5100%
season 51%+49 pts-7% ROI
Top 10
8/1080%
season 53%+27 pts-4% ROI
Top 20
12/1675%
season building
Top 50
12/1675%
season building
Full slate
12/1675%
season 51%+24 pts-7% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — our earned-runs over/under. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Monday, July 6, 2026
Brandon Pfaadt (AZ) leads the Monday, July 6, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.6 ER has today's cleanest run-prevention setup. Reynaldo López (ATL) is next at 100. Earned-run lines are small numbers with big edges hiding in the matchup — this board scores every starter's chance of a quiet line.
Top spot: Brandon Pfaadt
The model's pick for the quietest line of the night: Brandon Pfaadt (AZ), projected around 1.6 ER against SD. A low earned-run projection is really a statement about the lineup — who it strands, who it can't string hits against.
The rest of the top of the board
Reynaldo López (ATL) (100) — about 1.2 ER vs NYM.
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) (74) — about 1.9 ER vs KC.
Shane Drohan (MIL) (71) — about 2.3 ER vs STL.
Griffin Jax (TB) (70) — about 2.0 ER vs NYY.
Cam Schlittler (NYY) (60) — about 2.3 ER vs TB.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 2.7 ER. Brandon Pfaadt finished with 0. Every projection is graded against the box score.
Earned runs are a sequencing stat
A starter can give up six hits and one run, or three hits and four — earned runs are what happens when traffic clusters. That makes ER the noisiest of the pitcher props, and it's why the model builds the number from the collision of skills: how much traffic this lineup creates against this arm's profile, how the park treats contact, and how often this pitcher strands what he allows. One more honest wrinkle: a starter's earned runs stay his after he leaves, so a shaky bullpen inheriting his runners quietly inflates his line. Small numbers, wide error bars — respect both.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's 0–100 score reads his run-prevention setup tonight — the traffic this lineup figures to create against him, the park, and what he tends to strand. The projected ER beside it is the expected earned-run count for the start. Books usually hang these lines at 2.5: our number beside theirs shows which side the model leans, and the box score grades it either way.
The Earned Runs board projects how many earned runs a starter gives up vs his line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
His run-prevention rate vs the lineup's hand.
The park.
Projected length of outing.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Efficiently priced — transparency board. It's also a core input to our team run model (moneyline + team totals), where the edge actually lives.
How to use it
Read it for who's in line for a clean or rough outing; the bettable version is the team-total board it feeds.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Monday, July 6, 2026)?
Brandon Pfaadt (AZ) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.6 ER against SD.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Monday, July 6, 2026: Brandon Pfaadt (~1.6 ER), Reynaldo López (~1.2 ER), Cristopher Sánchez (~1.9 ER), Shane Drohan (~2.3 ER), Griffin Jax (~2.0 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
Why are most pitcher earned-run lines 2.5?
Because the league-average starter allows about three earned runs across roughly five-and-a-bit innings — 2.5 splits the outcome distribution near its middle for most arms, so books rarely need to move off it except for aces and streamers.
Do runs scored after the starter leaves count against him?
If the runner reached against him, yes — inherited runners who score are charged to the pitcher who put them on. A thin bullpen behind a starter is invisible in his season ERA and very visible on this bet.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs number alongside, and graded against the box score. The exact weighting is our own, tuned weekly against results.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
