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Best MLB earned runs matchups — Monday, July 6, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Monday, July 6, 2026 slate — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Monday, July 6, 2026

Our top 5 starts went 5/5 (100%) on the mark, against 54% on the season.

Top 5
5/5100%
season 54%
Top 10
8/1080%
season 52%
Full slate
12/1675%
season 51%

Top call Brandon Pfaadt came through. Landen Roupp didn't.

Final · 1–15PHIPHIawayKCKChomeTop matchup74Final · 5–1NYYNYYawayTBTBhomeTop matchup70Final · 11–12HOUHOUawayWSHWSHhomeTop matchup32Final · 7–6NYMNYMawayATLATLhomeTop matchup100Final · 4–3MILMILawaySTLSTLhomeTop matchup71Final · 8–0AZAZawaySDSDhomeTop matchup100Final · 1–10TORTORawaySFSFhomeTop matchup48Final · 7–8COLCOLawayLADLADhomeTop matchup55
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB14.0%
vs RHB9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.2 BF

Expected batters faced13.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)12.5%2.0
2. Jake Cronenworth (L)10.9%2.0
3. Manny Machado (R)13.0%2.0
4. Gavin Sheets (L)11.5%2.0
5. Ty France (R)10.8%1.2
6. Jackson Merrill (L)12.6%1.0
7. Samad Taylor (R)10.8%1.0
8. Sung-Mun Song (L)13.2%1.0
9. Rodolfo Durán (R)11.7%1.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-150
DKDraftKings+113-150
FANFanatics+105-150

We project 1.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Brandon Pfaadt's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate8.5% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.0%
vs RHB9.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload12.8 BF

Expected batters faced12.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.2 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. A.J. Ewing (L)11.4%2.0
2. Juan Soto (L)13.4%2.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)11.7%2.0
4. Francisco Lindor (L)13.3%1.8
5. Carson Benge (L)11.3%1.0
6. Jared Young (L)11.2%1.0
7. Francisco Alvarez (R)10.9%1.0
8. Brett Baty (L)10.2%1.0
9. Ronny Mauricio (L)10.3%1.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-130
DKDraftKings+101-133
FANFanatics-110-130

We project 1.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Reynaldo López's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate7.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.8%
vs RHB7.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload25.1 BF

Expected batters faced25.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.9 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Lane Thomas (R)10.9%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)12.7%3.0
3. Salvador Perez (R)10.2%3.0
4. Jac Caglianone (L)11.0%3.0
5. Nick Loftin (R)10.4%3.0
6. Starling Marte (R)10.3%3.0
7. Tyler Tolbert (R)11.7%3.0
8. Luke Maile (R)11.7%2.1
9. Josh Rojas (L)9.8%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-175+125
DKDraftKings-159+119

We project 1.9 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Cristopher Sánchez's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.5 BF

Expected batters faced19.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)9.3%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)13.3%2.5
3. Jordan Walker (R)14.2%2.0
4. Nelson Velázquez (R)10.9%2.0
5. José Fermín (R)13.0%2.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)12.9%2.0
7. Nathan Church (L)13.8%2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)12.7%2.0
9. Pedro Pagés (R)8.3%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-145
DKDraftKings+122-163
FANFanatics+105-150

We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Shane Drohan's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.3%
vs RHB10.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.8 BF

Expected batters faced19.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.0 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)15.8%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)14.1%2.8
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)10.4%2.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)10.8%2.0
5. Jasson Domínguez (L)9.6%2.0
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)13.7%2.0
7. José Caballero (R)9.9%2.0
8. Ryan McMahon (L)12.0%2.0
9. Austin Wells (L)10.0%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
DKDraftKings-147+111
FANFanatics-185+130

We project 2.0 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Griffin Jax's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate8.4% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.9%
vs RHB8.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)12.0%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)13.0%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)14.5%3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)13.2%3.0
5. Jonny DeLuca (R)12.1%3.0
6. Chandler Simpson (L)11.5%2.4
7. Nick Fortes (R)9.9%2.0
8. Richie Palacios (L)12.1%2.0
9. Taylor Walls (L)15.2%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+130-185

We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Cam Schlittler's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.6% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.6%
vs RHB10.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Willi Castro (R)11.7%3.0
2. Kyle Karros (R)13.5%3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R)14.6%3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L)10.1%3.0
5. Cole Carrigg (R)11.7%2.4
6. Tyler Freeman (R)11.7%2.0
7. Jake McCarthy (L)13.0%2.0
8. Troy Johnston (L)8.2%2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)11.3%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-110
BOVBovada-135-105
DKDraftKings-127-104

We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Eric Lauer's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate13.5% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.2%
vs RHB17.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)11.2%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)11.8%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)12.8%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)12.0%2.8
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)8.9%2.0
6. Max Kepler (L)10.3%2.0
7. Nolan Arenado (R)11.3%2.0
8. Ildemaro Vargas (L)11.3%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)12.1%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
DKDraftKings+122-163

We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Walker Buehler's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.8%
vs RHB11.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ernie Clement (R)10.1%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)10.8%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)11.2%3.0
4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)12.0%3.0
5. Sean Keys (L)11.7%2.6
6. Alejandro Kirk (R)8.8%2.0
7. Daulton Varsho (L)11.0%2.0
8. Myles Straw (R)17.5%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)10.0%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
DKDraftKings+127-169

We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Landen Roupp's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate13.4% Runs / BF

vs LHB13.3%
vs RHB12.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.8 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)14.2%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)12.7%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)9.2%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)8.2%3.0
5. Brandon Marsh (L)11.1%2.9
6. Edmundo Sosa (R)11.0%2.0
7. Bryson Stott (L)10.1%2.0
8. J.T. Realmuto (R)8.4%2.0
9. Derek Hill (R)10.9%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+110
DKDraftKings-143+108
FANFanatics-150+105

We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Noah Cameron's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.2% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.8%
vs RHB14.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.2%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.9 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Heliot Ramos (R)11.5%3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L)12.4%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)11.0%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)15.1%3.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)13.6%3.0
6. Willy Adames (R)11.7%2.4
7. Bryce Eldridge (L)11.0%2.0
8. Victor Bericoto (R)11.7%2.0
9. Eric Haase (R)12.8%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
DKDraftKings+111-148
FANFanatics-105-135

We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Kevin Gausman's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate13.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.4%
vs RHB14.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.0 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jose Altuve (R)13.4%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)15.1%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)10.6%3.0
4. Christian Walker (R)11.0%2.8
5. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)10.2%2.0
6. Cam Smith (R)10.8%2.0
7. Yainer Diaz (R)9.8%2.0
8. Braden Shewmake (L)11.7%2.0
9. Brice Matthews (R)10.9%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
FANFanatics-155+110

We project 3.0 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Miles Mikolas's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.0% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.4%
vs RHB10.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.1 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Michael Harris II (L)12.7%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)16.1%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)14.0%3.0
4. Drake Baldwin (L)14.2%3.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)14.3%3.0
6. Dominic Smith (L)12.4%2.5
7. Austin Riley (R)10.7%2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)11.3%2.0
9. Jim Jarvis (L)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+110
DKDraftKings-148+111

We project 3.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Freddy Peralta's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.5% Runs / BF

vs LHB14.5%
vs RHB9.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.4 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)16.3%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)16.3%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)12.0%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)13.9%3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)11.9%2.4
6. Daylen Lile (L)13.2%2.0
7. Jacob Young (R)10.8%2.0
8. Drew Millas (L)11.5%2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (L)11.3%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+115

We project 3.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Mike Burrows's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate14.9% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.3%
vs RHB15.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)12.4%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)13.0%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)11.7%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)12.0%3.0
5. Kyle Tucker (L)13.3%3.0
6. Teoscar Hernández (R)14.0%3.0
7. Max Muncy (L)14.5%2.2
8. Miguel Rojas (R)13.6%2.0
9. Dalton Rushing (L)13.6%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings+107-142
FANFanatics+100-140

We project 3.7 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Kyle Freeland's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate16.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB15.9%
vs RHB12.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)14.5%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)14.0%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)14.7%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)12.4%2.9
5. Jake Bauers (L)16.4%2.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L)14.4%2.0
7. Sal Frelick (L)11.5%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)11.6%2.0
9. David Hamilton (L)11.6%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-105

We project 3.9 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Dustin May's full player page →

What the earned runs allowed board is

The Earned Runs board projects how many earned runs a starter gives up vs his line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • His run-prevention rate vs the lineup's hand.
  • The park.
  • Projected length of outing.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Efficiently priced — transparency board. It's also a core input to our team run model (moneyline + team totals), where the edge actually lives.

How to use it

Read it for who's in line for a clean or rough outing; the bettable version is the team-total board it feeds.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays