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Earned Runs Board · Today

Best MLB earned runs matchups — Monday, July 6, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Monday, July 6, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

2:10 PM ETPHIPHIawayKCKChomeTop matchup696:40 PM ETNYYNYYawayTBTBhomeTop matchup676:45 PM ETHOUHOUawayWSHWSHhomeTop matchup337:15 PM ETNYMNYMawayATLATLhomeTop matchup1007:45 PM ETMILMILawaySTLSTLhomeTop matchup609:40 PM ETAZAZawaySDSDhomeTop matchup849:45 PM ETTORTORawaySFSFhomeTop matchup4610:10 PM ETCOLCOLawayLADLADhomeTop matchup50
PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 16 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher earned runs Rate8.5% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.0%
vs RHB9.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload12.8 BF

Expected batters faced12.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.2 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Francisco Lindor (L)12.5%2.0
2. Juan Soto (L)12.8%2.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)11.3%2.0
4. Mark Vientos (R)9.9%1.8
5. Carson Benge (L)11.8%1.0
6. Tyrone Taylor (R)10.0%1.0
7. A.J. Ewing (L)11.4%1.0
8. Luis Torrens (R)10.4%1.0
9. Brett Baty (L)9.6%1.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Reynaldo López's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB14.0%
vs RHB9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.2 BF

Expected batters faced13.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)13.0%2.0
2. Jake Cronenworth (L)11.1%2.0
3. Manny Machado (R)12.5%2.0
4. Gavin Sheets (L)11.7%2.0
5. Ty France (R)11.0%1.2
6. Jackson Merrill (L)12.7%1.0
7. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.8%1.0
8. Sung-Mun Song (L)12.7%1.0
9. Luis Campusano (R)12.5%1.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Brandon Pfaadt's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate7.4% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.5%
vs RHB7.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload25.1 BF

Expected batters faced25.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.0 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)12.1%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)11.8%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)11.0%3.0
4. Lane Thomas (R)10.1%3.0
5. Michael Massey (L)10.6%3.0
6. Salvador Perez (R)10.3%3.0
7. Josh Rojas (L)10.0%3.0
8. Kameron Misner (L)9.5%2.1
9. Isaac Collins (R)11.9%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Cristopher Sánchez's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.3%
vs RHB10.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.8 BF

Expected batters faced19.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.1 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)15.5%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)14.3%2.8
3. Jasson Domínguez (L)10.0%2.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)11.0%2.0
5. Anthony Volpe (R)10.8%2.0
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)13.8%2.0
7. Max Schuemann (R)14.2%2.0
8. Austin Wells (L)10.2%2.0
9. José Caballero (R)10.0%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Griffin Jax's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate8.4% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.9%
vs RHB8.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)12.4%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)13.0%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)14.8%3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)13.1%3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L)11.5%3.0
6. Ben Williamson (R)11.8%2.4
7. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)12.6%2.0
8. Richie Palacios (L)12.2%2.0
9. Hunter Feduccia (L)10.3%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Cam Schlittler's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.5 BF

Expected batters faced19.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)9.4%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)13.4%2.5
3. Alec Burleson (L)9.7%2.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)14.2%2.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)11.5%2.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)12.9%2.0
7. Nathan Church (L)13.9%2.0
8. José Fermín (R)13.1%2.0
9. Bryan Torres (L)12.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shane Drohan's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB7.9%
vs RHB17.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)11.4%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)11.7%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)13.0%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)12.3%2.8
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)8.9%2.0
6. Ildemaro Vargas (L)12.0%2.0
7. Tim Tawa (R)9.6%2.0
8. Pavin Smith (L)9.0%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walker Buehler's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.6% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.6%
vs RHB10.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)13.0%3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L)11.8%3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R)14.6%3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L)10.2%3.0
5. Troy Johnston (L)8.3%2.4
6. Kyle Karros (R)13.7%2.0
7. Edouard Julien (L)16.3%2.0
8. Brett Sullivan (L)9.2%2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)11.3%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Eric Lauer's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.8%
vs RHB11.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nathan Lukes (L)11.0%3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)12.0%3.0
3. Kazuma Okamoto (R)12.9%3.0
4. Alejandro Kirk (R)9.1%3.0
5. Daulton Varsho (L)11.4%2.6
6. Ernie Clement (R)10.2%2.0
7. Sean Keys (L)11.7%2.0
8. Luis Urías (R)10.9%2.0
9. Yohendrick Piñango (L)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Landen Roupp's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.2% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.8%
vs RHB14.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.2%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)12.5%3.0
2. Casey Schmitt (R)11.0%3.0
3. Heliot Ramos (R)12.0%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)14.1%3.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)14.8%3.0
6. Willy Adames (R)11.1%2.4
7. Bryce Eldridge (L)11.1%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)11.1%2.0
9. Drew Cavanaugh (L)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kevin Gausman's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate13.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.4%
vs RHB14.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.1 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jose Altuve (R)13.5%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)15.4%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)10.3%3.0
4. Christian Walker (R)10.7%2.8
5. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)10.6%2.0
6. Cam Smith (R)11.0%2.0
7. Taylor Trammell (L)11.9%2.0
8. Nick Allen (R)11.0%2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)10.8%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Miles Mikolas's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate13.4% Runs / BF

vs LHB13.3%
vs RHB12.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.2 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)14.8%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)13.3%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)9.3%3.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L)11.2%3.0
5. Alec Bohm (R)8.3%2.9
6. Bryson Stott (L)10.0%2.0
7. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
8. Justin Crawford (L)16.1%2.0
9. Garrett Stubbs (L)15.8%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Noah Cameron's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate13.4% Runs / BF

vs LHB13.7%
vs RHB11.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Drake Baldwin (L)13.3%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)16.5%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)13.8%3.0
4. Michael Harris II (L)12.4%3.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)14.1%3.0
6. Dominic Smith (L)12.1%2.5
7. Austin Riley (R)10.3%2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)11.4%2.0
9. Jim Jarvis (L)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Freddy Peralta's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.5% Runs / BF

vs LHB14.5%
vs RHB9.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)16.6%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)16.1%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)12.3%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)14.1%3.0
5. Daylen Lile (L)13.3%2.4
6. Dylan Crews (R)11.3%2.0
7. José Tena (L)11.8%2.0
8. Jorbit Vivas (L)11.6%2.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (L)13.0%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Mike Burrows's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate16.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB15.9%
vs RHB12.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Brice Turang (L)14.7%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)14.0%3.0
3. Christian Yelich (L)14.6%3.0
4. Andrew Vaughn (R)9.3%2.9
5. Jake Bauers (L)16.5%2.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L)14.5%2.0
7. Gary Sánchez (R)11.8%2.0
8. David Hamilton (L)11.7%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)11.5%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Dustin May's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate14.9% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.3%
vs RHB15.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)12.6%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)13.2%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)11.9%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)12.2%3.0
5. Teoscar Hernández (R)13.4%3.0
6. Alex Call (R)13.6%3.0
7. Miguel Rojas (R)13.6%2.2
8. Alex Freeland (R)10.5%2.0
9. Eliezer Alfonzo (R)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kyle Freeland's full player page →

What the earned runs allowed board is

The Earned Runs board projects how many earned runs a starter gives up vs his line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • His run-prevention rate vs the lineup's hand.
  • The park.
  • Projected length of outing.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Efficiently priced — transparency board. It's also a core input to our team run model (moneyline + team totals), where the edge actually lives.

How to use it

Read it for who's in line for a clean or rough outing; the bettable version is the team-total board it feeds.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays