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Best MLB earned runs matchups — Tuesday, July 7, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Tuesday, July 7, 2026 slate — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Tuesday, July 7, 2026

Our top 5 starts went 0/3 (0%) on the mark, against 54% on the season.

Top 5
0/30%
season 54%
Top 10
5/863%
season 53%
Full slate
15/3050%
season 51%

Top call Ian Seymour came through. Spencer Miles didn't.

Final · 4–3MILMILawaySTLSTLhomeTop matchup93Final · 5–2CHCCHCawayBALBALhomeTop matchup60Final · 5–6SEASEAawayMIAMIAhomeTop matchup63Final · 4–12ATLATLawayPITPIThomeTop matchup55Final · 2–6ATHATHawayDETDEThomeTop matchup56Final · 4–6NYYNYYawayTBTBhomeTop matchup76Final · 6–3HOUHOUawayWSHWSHhomeTop matchup85Final · 16–12KCKCawayNYMNYMhomeTop matchup90Final · 4–1PHIPHIawayCINCINhomeTop matchup64Final · 1–3CLECLEawayMINMINhomeTop matchup61Final · 8–1BOSBOSawayCWSCWShomeTop matchup41Final · 10–2MILMILawaySTLSTLhomeTop matchup58Final · 3–8LAALAAawayTEXTEXhomeTop matchup68Final · 1–4AZAZawaySDSDhomeTop matchup35Final · 9–3TORTORawaySFSFhomeTop matchup100Final · 4–3COLCOLawayLADLADhomeTop matchup50
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher earned runs Rate7.9% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.3%
vs RHB8.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload12.4 BF

Expected batters faced12.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.2 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Heliot Ramos (R)12.6%2.0
2. Luis Arraez (L)11.8%2.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)10.9%2.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)16.1%1.4
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)14.1%1.0
6. Willy Adames (R)12.3%1.0
7. Bryce Eldridge (L)10.9%1.0
8. Victor Bericoto (R)15.0%1.0
9. Drew Cavanaugh (L)11.7%1.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-130

We project 1.2 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Spencer Miles's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.7%
vs RHB14.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload10.1 BF

Expected batters faced10.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.4 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)14.6%2.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)13.6%1.1
3. Brice Turang (L)14.3%1.0
4. William Contreras (R)11.6%1.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)16.1%1.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L)14.6%1.0
7. Sal Frelick (L)11.6%1.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)11.3%1.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)12.1%1.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Matt Svanson's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate13.0% Runs / BF

vs LHB13.1%
vs RHB12.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload10.8 BF

Expected batters faced10.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)11.7%2.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)14.0%1.8
3. Lane Thomas (R)11.4%1.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)10.7%1.0
5. Jac Caglianone (L)11.7%1.0
6. Nick Loftin (R)11.9%1.0
7. Isaac Collins (R)12.0%1.0
8. Michael Massey (L)10.6%1.0
9. Tyler Tolbert (R)15.5%1.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+210-300

We project 1.5 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Cionel Pérez's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate8.5% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.5%
vs RHB8.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.2 BF

Expected batters faced18.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jose Altuve (R)12.6%2.2
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)12.0%2.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)10.4%2.0
4. Christian Walker (R)12.2%2.0
5. Cam Smith (R)12.3%2.0
6. Zach Dezenzo (R)12.2%2.0
7. Brice Matthews (R)10.1%2.0
8. Nick Allen (R)13.8%2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)9.6%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-160
DKDraftKings+126-167

We project 1.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Andrew Alvarez's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate6.5% Runs / BF

vs LHB5.9%
vs RHB8.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.0 BF

Expected batters faced24.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.8 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)14.8%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)12.7%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)12.9%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)13.3%3.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)11.6%3.0
6. Bryan Torres (L)13.7%3.0
7. Nathan Church (L)11.8%2.0
8. José Fermín (R)9.9%2.0
9. Jimmy Crooks (L)7.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jacob Misiorowski's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB12.8%
vs RHB7.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload17.4 BF

Expected batters faced17.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.8 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)12.5%2.0
2. Paul Goldschmidt (R)14.4%2.0
3. Ben Rice (L)11.4%2.0
4. Amed Rosario (R)11.1%2.0
5. Cody Bellinger (L)10.8%2.0
6. José Caballero (R)14.4%2.0
7. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)9.8%2.0
8. Max Schuemann (R)14.8%2.0
9. Ali Sánchez (R)8.8%1.4

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+115
DKDraftKings-131-101

We project 1.8 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Ian Seymour's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.6% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB8.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.0 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)13.8%3.0
2. Nolan Schanuel (L)11.7%3.0
3. Denzer Guzman (R)8.4%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)11.0%3.0
5. Josh Lowe (L)11.2%2.9
6. Jo Adell (R)9.8%2.0
7. Oswald Peraza (R)8.6%2.0
8. Wade Meckler (L)11.7%2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R)9.5%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-115
DKDraftKings-110-121
FANFanatics-120-120

We project 2.0 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Jacob deGrom's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate8.5% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.0%
vs RHB9.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.1 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (L)13.2%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)13.6%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)11.1%3.0
4. Eugenio Suárez (R)10.4%3.0
5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)10.1%3.0
6. Spencer Steer (R)13.6%2.4
7. Tyler Stephenson (R)9.9%2.0
8. TJ Friedl (L)10.5%2.0
9. Matt McLain (R)10.5%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-160
DKDraftKings+118-157
FANFanatics+115-165

We project 2.1 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Zack Wheeler's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate7.6% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.3%
vs RHB8.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.5 BF

Expected batters faced24.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.2 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)11.1%3.0
2. Randy Arozarena (R)14.3%3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L)13.2%3.0
4. Cal Raleigh (L)11.5%3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L)10.2%3.0
6. Luke Raley (L)10.5%3.0
7. Cole Young (L)13.1%2.5
8. Victor Robles (R)11.7%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)10.8%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BOVBovada+130-170
DKDraftKings+119-159

We project 2.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Max Meyer's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.6%
vs RHB10.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.2 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Austin Martin (R)13.4%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (R)8.8%3.0
3. Josh Bell (R)10.8%3.0
4. Royce Lewis (R)11.6%3.0
5. Victor Caratini (R)9.5%2.0
6. Kody Clemens (L)10.0%2.0
7. Ryan Kreidler (R)10.8%2.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R)10.4%2.0
9. Kyler Fedko (R)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-145
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings+107-142
FANFanatics+105-150

We project 2.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Joey Cantillo's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.9% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.3%
vs RHB10.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.2 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)12.5%3.0
2. Kahlil Watson (L)9.4%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)10.8%3.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L)12.1%3.0
5. Rhys Hoskins (R)9.7%2.6
6. Brayan Rocchio (L)10.7%2.0
7. Daniel Schneemann (L)10.5%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)9.3%2.0
9. Steven Kwan (L)10.8%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
BOVBovada+105-145
DKDraftKings+110-146

We project 2.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Taj Bradley's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.6% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.9%
vs RHB11.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.2 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)13.0%3.0
2. Adley Rutschman (R)10.7%3.0
3. Gunnar Henderson (L)9.1%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)10.5%2.4
5. Coby Mayo (R)14.1%2.0
6. Samuel Basallo (L)8.9%2.0
7. Blaze Alexander (R)9.7%2.0
8. Dylan Beavers (L)11.5%2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)11.8%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-150
BOVBovada+105-145
DKDraftKings+106-141
FANFanatics+110-155

We project 2.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Matthew Boyd's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.5%
vs RHB12.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.3 BF

Expected batters faced20.3
From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)14.6%3.0
2. Luis Lara (L)11.7%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)14.3%2.3
4. Andrew Vaughn (R)9.3%2.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)16.1%2.0
6. Gary Sánchez (R)12.7%2.0
7. Sal Frelick (L)11.6%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)11.3%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)12.1%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings+128-171

We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Hunter Dobbins's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.2% Runs / BF

vs LHB12.9%
vs RHB7.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ernie Clement (R)9.8%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)10.6%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)11.0%3.0
4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)12.3%2.9
5. Brandon Valenzuela (L)10.5%2.0
6. Daulton Varsho (L)10.8%2.0
7. Sean Keys (L)12.0%2.0
8. Jonatan Clase (L)11.7%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)9.8%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-160
BOVBovada+140-180
DKDraftKings+124-166
FANFanatics+115-165

We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Trevor McDonald's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.0% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.6%
vs RHB9.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)13.8%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)11.6%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)9.1%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)8.2%3.0
5. Edmundo Sosa (R)10.8%3.0
6. J.T. Realmuto (R)8.3%2.5
7. Bryson Stott (L)9.3%2.0
8. Derek Hill (R)10.8%2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)15.5%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada-160+120
DKDraftKings-154+116

We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Andrew Abbott's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.2% Runs / BF

vs LHB8.7%
vs RHB10.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)13.9%3.0
2. Colt Keith (L)12.3%3.0
3. Riley Greene (L)14.4%3.0
4. Dillon Dingler (R)12.4%3.0
5. Kerry Carpenter (L)12.5%3.0
6. Zach McKinstry (L)9.9%2.5
7. Spencer Torkelson (R)10.6%2.0
8. James Outman (L)9.6%2.0
9. Matt Vierling (R)10.2%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
BOVBovada-120-120
DKDraftKings-135+102

We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

J.T. Ginn's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.7% Runs / BF

vs LHB7.9%
vs RHB12.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.6 BF

Expected batters faced20.6
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.4 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake Mangum (L)12.3%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)14.2%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)14.4%2.6
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)14.0%2.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)14.6%2.0
6. Nick Gonzales (R)13.7%2.0
7. Tyler Callihan (L)13.0%2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R)11.8%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)13.5%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-130
DKDraftKings-103-129

We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Hurston Waldrep's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.2% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.7%
vs RHB8.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Willi Castro (R)12.7%3.0
2. Kyle Karros (R)12.7%3.0
3. TJ Rumfield (L)9.6%3.0
4. Cole Carrigg (R)15.7%3.0
5. Tyler Freeman (R)11.5%3.0
6. Jake McCarthy (L)12.5%2.9
7. Ezequiel Tovar (R)12.8%2.0
8. Braxton Fulford (R)11.2%2.0
9. Mickey Moniak (L)11.8%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
DKDraftKings+119-158
FANFanatics-105-135

We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Justin Wrobleski's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.4% Runs / BF

vs LHB12.3%
vs RHB9.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)12.6%3.0
2. Josh Smith (L)9.8%3.0
3. Jake Burger (R)11.2%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)10.5%3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)11.3%3.0
6. Evan Carter (L)11.4%2.0
7. Alejandro Osuna (L)9.3%2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R)9.7%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)10.9%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-160
DKDraftKings+124-165

We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

José Soriano's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate9.6% Runs / BF

vs LHB9.3%
vs RHB9.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)24.5%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zack Gelof (R)13.4%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)12.9%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)14.0%3.0
4. Jonah Heim (R)12.8%3.0
5. Jacob Wilson (R)11.1%2.9
6. Colby Thomas (R)13.7%2.0
7. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R)13.1%2.0
8. Max Muncy (R)12.1%2.0
9. Henry Bolte (R)11.4%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-110
BOVBovada-125-115
DKDraftKings-133+101
FANFanatics-125-115

We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Tarik Skubal's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate10.5% Runs / BF

vs LHB12.9%
vs RHB9.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Miguel Vargas (R)13.8%3.0
2. Randal Grichuk (R)13.3%3.0
3. Colson Montgomery (L)11.0%3.0
4. Chase Meidroth (R)13.1%3.0
5. Sam Antonacci (L)12.2%3.0
6. Junior Perez (R)11.7%2.5
7. Kyle Teel (L)11.4%2.0
8. Luisangel Acuña (R)9.6%2.0
9. Tristan Peters (L)11.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-150
DKDraftKings+113-150

We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Payton Tolle's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.3% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.2%
vs RHB11.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)9.9%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)13.1%3.0
3. Jordan Walker (R)14.0%3.0
4. Nelson Velázquez (R)11.8%3.0
5. Alec Burleson (L)9.7%2.3
6. Masyn Winn (R)12.5%2.0
7. José Fermín (R)12.7%2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)12.2%2.0
9. Nathan Church (L)13.3%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+145-200
DKDraftKings+116-155
FANFanatics+115-165

We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Robert Gasser's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate12.6% Runs / BF

vs LHB10.7%
vs RHB14.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. A.J. Ewing (L)11.2%3.0
2. Juan Soto (L)13.9%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)12.1%3.0
4. Francisco Lindor (L)12.8%3.0
5. Carson Benge (L)11.5%3.0
6. Jorge Polanco (L)9.0%2.2
7. Jared Young (L)11.7%2.0
8. Brett Baty (L)10.0%2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)10.5%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-105
BOVBovada-140+100
DKDraftKings-122-109
FANFanatics-130-110

We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Seth Lugo's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate13.4% Runs / BF

vs LHB14.7%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.0 BF

Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.9 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)11.7%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)12.8%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)13.2%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)12.4%2.0
5. Max Kepler (L)10.9%2.0
6. Nolan Arenado (R)11.4%2.0
7. Pavin Smith (L)9.0%2.0
8. James McCann (R)11.7%2.0
9. Tim Tawa (R)9.3%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-175+125

We project 2.9 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Germán Márquez's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.5%
vs RHB10.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.0 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)11.5%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)12.8%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)14.3%3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)12.9%3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L)12.0%3.0
6. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)12.6%2.6
7. Taylor Walls (L)15.1%2.0
8. Richie Palacios (L)11.9%2.0
9. Hunter Feduccia (L)10.2%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
DKDraftKings+111-148
FANFanatics+100-140

We project 3.0 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Will Warren's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.9% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.0%
vs RHB11.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.1%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.0 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Michael Harris II (L)12.3%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)15.8%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)14.9%3.0
4. Drake Baldwin (L)13.9%3.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)13.9%3.0
6. Dominic Smith (L)12.9%2.3
7. Austin Riley (R)10.5%2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)11.7%2.0
9. Jim Jarvis (L)9.4%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-175+130
FANFanatics-180+125

We project 3.0 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Paul Skenes's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.6% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.1%
vs RHB11.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.2 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)15.8%3.0
2. Kyle Stowers (L)14.1%3.0
3. Otto Lopez (R)16.0%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L)12.1%3.0
5. Griffin Conine (L)11.3%3.0
6. Owen Caissie (L)14.3%2.4
7. Jakob Marsee (L)10.7%2.0
8. Joe Mack (L)14.6%2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R)11.8%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-120
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings-102-130
FANFanatics-115-125

We project 3.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Bryan Woo's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate11.4% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.8%
vs RHB10.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.2%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload25.0 BF

Expected batters faced25.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.2 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)14.6%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)11.0%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)11.5%3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)13.1%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)14.5%3.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)10.9%3.0
7. Michael Conforto (L)12.2%3.0
8. Dansby Swanson (R)15.8%2.0
9. Miguel Amaya (R)13.5%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-105
BOVBovada-125-115
DKDraftKings-133+100

We project 3.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Shane Baz's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate13.5% Runs / BF

vs LHB11.9%
vs RHB13.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.3 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (R)13.3%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)13.0%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)15.0%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)13.9%2.4
5. Romy Gonzalez (R)13.2%2.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)11.6%2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L)10.8%2.0
8. Andruw Monasterio (R)15.0%2.0
9. Connor Wong (R)12.7%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-130
DKDraftKings+111-147
FANFanatics+100-140

We project 3.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Noah Schultz's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate13.8% Runs / BF

vs LHB14.7%
vs RHB11.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.9 BF

Expected batters faced19.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.5 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)17.6%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)16.7%2.9
3. Curtis Mead (R)13.2%2.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)14.1%2.0
5. Keibert Ruiz (L)13.5%2.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)13.1%2.0
7. Nasim Nuñez (L)12.5%2.0
8. Jorbit Vivas (L)11.3%2.0
9. Jacob Young (R)11.2%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-105
DKDraftKings-124-107
FANFanatics-130-110

We project 3.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Tatsuya Imai's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate13.6% Runs / BF

vs LHB14.1%
vs RHB12.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.6 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)15.7%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)13.1%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)13.6%3.0
4. Max Muncy (L)13.5%3.0
5. Tommy Edman (L)11.7%2.4
6. Kyle Tucker (L)14.2%2.0
7. Dalton Rushing (L)13.0%2.0
8. Alex Freeland (L)12.0%2.0
9. Miguel Rojas (R)9.5%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-120
DKDraftKings-106-125

We project 3.6 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Michael Lorenzen's full player page →

Pitcher earned runs Rate15.1% Runs / BF

vs LHB12.1%
vs RHB16.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.2%

How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.3 BF

Expected batters faced24.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.8 ER

Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)12.4%3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L)12.0%3.0
3. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.5%3.0
4. Manny Machado (R)12.4%3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L)11.4%3.0
6. Jake Cronenworth (L)10.6%3.0
7. Luis Campusano (R)13.0%2.3
8. Samad Taylor (R)10.5%2.0
9. Sung-Mun Song (L)12.9%2.0

Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135-105
BOVBovada-135-105
DKDraftKings-144+108
FANFanatics-135-105

We project 3.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Zac Gallen's full player page →

What the earned runs allowed board is

The Earned Runs board projects how many earned runs a starter gives up vs his line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • His run-prevention rate vs the lineup's hand.
  • The park.
  • Projected length of outing.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Efficiently priced — transparency board. It's also a core input to our team run model (moneyline + team totals), where the edge actually lives.

How to use it

Read it for who's in line for a clean or rough outing; the bettable version is the team-total board it feeds.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays