Earned Runs Board · Today
Best MLB earned runs matchups — Tuesday, July 7, 2026 Every starting pitcher on the Tuesday, July 7, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Tap any card for the full breakdown.
‹ Prev Tuesday, July 7, 2026 Next › All Games 25 2 PM ET 1 6 PM ET 11 7 PM ET 6 8 PM ET 2 9 PM ET 3 10 PM ET 2 Lineups final Remaining Upcoming only
PROJ Some lineups aren't official yet — 25 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
# Pitcher · Matchup Score
1
Andrew Alvarez⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs HOU lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.3%
vs RHB 8.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 18.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 18.2 BF Expected batters faced 18.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 1.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jose Altuve (R) 12.6% 2.2
2. Yordan Alvarez (L) 12.0% 2.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R) 10.4% 2.0
4. Christian Walker (R) 12.2% 2.0
5. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L) 11.5% 2.0
6. Cam Smith (R) 12.3% 2.0
7. Yainer Diaz (R) 12.0% 2.0
8. Braden Shewmake (L) 9.6% 2.0
9. Brice Matthews (R) 10.1% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Andrew Alvarez's full player page → 2
Ian Seymour⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs NYY lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 12.8%
vs RHB 7.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 17.4 BF Expected batters faced 17.4
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 1.9 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trent Grisham (L) 12.5% 2.0
2. Ben Rice (L) 11.3% 2.0
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R) 14.3% 2.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L) 10.7% 2.0
5. Jasson Domínguez (R) 10.5% 2.0
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 9.7% 2.0
7. José Caballero (R) 14.3% 2.0
8. Ryan McMahon (L) 8.1% 2.0
9. Austin Wells (L) 8.6% 1.4
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Ian Seymour's full player page → 3
Hurston Waldrep⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs PIT lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.7% Runs / BF vs LHB 7.9%
vs RHB 12.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 10.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.6 BF Expected batters faced 20.6
From recent starts 2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.0 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Konnor Griffin (R) 11.7% 3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L) 11.7% 3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L) 11.7% 2.6
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R) 11.7% 2.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L) 11.7% 2.0
6. Nick Gonzales (R) 11.7% 2.0
7. Endy Rodríguez (L) 11.7% 2.0
8. Tyler Callihan (L) 11.7% 2.0
9. Jake Mangum (L) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hurston Waldrep's full player page → 4
Max Meyer⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SEA lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 7.6% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.3%
vs RHB 8.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.5 BF Expected batters faced 24.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.1 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. J.P. Crawford (L) 11.7% 3.0
2. Randy Arozarena (R) 11.7% 3.0
3. Cal Raleigh (L) 11.7% 3.0
4. Josh Naylor (L) 11.7% 3.0
5. Luke Raley (L) 11.7% 3.0
6. Cole Young (L) 11.7% 3.0
7. Mitch Garver (R) 11.7% 2.5
8. Colt Emerson (L) 11.7% 2.0
9. Victor Robles (R) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Max Meyer's full player page → 5
Trevor McDonald⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TOR lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.2% Runs / BF vs LHB 12.9%
vs RHB 7.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.9 BF Expected batters faced 21.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Ernie Clement (R) 10.1% 3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L) 10.8% 3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R) 11.2% 3.0
4. Kazuma Okamoto (R) 12.0% 2.9
5. Sean Keys (L) 11.7% 2.0
6. Alejandro Kirk (R) 8.8% 2.0
7. Daulton Varsho (L) 11.0% 2.0
8. Myles Straw (R) 17.5% 2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L) 10.0% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Trevor McDonald's full player page → 6
Jacob Misiorowski⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs STL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 6.5% Runs / BF vs LHB 5.9%
vs RHB 8.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 19.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.0 BF Expected batters faced 24.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. JJ Wetherholt (L) 15.8% 3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R) 13.8% 3.0
3. Jordan Walker (R) 13.2% 3.0
4. Nelson Velázquez (R) 14.7% 3.0
5. José Fermín (R) 10.0% 3.0
6. Masyn Winn (R) 12.4% 3.0
7. Nathan Church (L) 12.5% 2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R) 10.5% 2.0
9. Pedro Pagés (R) 10.6% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Jacob Misiorowski's full player page → 7
J.T. Ginn⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs DET lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.2% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.7%
vs RHB 10.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.5 BF Expected batters faced 23.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.3 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Kevin McGonigle (L) 11.7% 3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R) 11.7% 3.0
3. Kerry Carpenter (L) 11.7% 3.0
4. Riley Greene (L) 11.7% 3.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R) 11.7% 3.0
6. Colt Keith (L) 11.7% 2.5
7. Zach McKinstry (L) 11.7% 2.0
8. Jake Rogers (R) 11.7% 2.0
9. James Outman (L) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
J.T. Ginn's full player page → 8
Andrew Abbott⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs PHI lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.0% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.6%
vs RHB 9.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 7.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.5 BF Expected batters faced 23.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.3 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 10.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trea Turner (R) 14.2% 3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L) 12.7% 3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L) 9.2% 3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R) 8.2% 3.0
5. Brandon Marsh (L) 11.1% 3.0
6. Edmundo Sosa (R) 11.0% 2.5
7. Bryson Stott (L) 10.1% 2.0
8. J.T. Realmuto (R) 8.4% 2.0
9. Derek Hill (R) 10.9% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Andrew Abbott's full player page → 9
Tarik Skubal⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs ATH lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.6% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.3%
vs RHB 9.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 24.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.9 BF Expected batters faced 22.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.3 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Henry Bolte (R) 11.7% 3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L) 11.7% 3.0
3. Zack Gelof (R) 11.7% 3.0
4. Lawrence Butler (L) 11.7% 3.0
5. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R) 11.7% 2.9
6. Carlos Cortes (L) 11.7% 2.0
7. Max Muncy (R) 11.7% 2.0
8. Jonah Heim (R) 11.7% 2.0
9. Brian Serven (R) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Tarik Skubal's full player page → 10
Joey Cantillo⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs MIN lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.6%
vs RHB 10.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.0 BF Expected batters faced 22.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Austin Martin (R) 11.7% 3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R) 11.7% 3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L) 11.7% 3.0
4. Josh Bell (R) 11.7% 3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R) 11.7% 2.0
6. Victor Caratini (R) 11.7% 2.0
7. Brooks Lee (R) 11.7% 2.0
8. Ryan Kreidler (R) 11.7% 2.0
9. Luke Keaschall (R) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Joey Cantillo's full player page → 11
Taj Bradley⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs CLE lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.9% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.3%
vs RHB 10.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.6 BF Expected batters faced 22.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Travis Bazzana (L) 11.7% 3.0
2. Kahlil Watson (L) 11.7% 3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L) 11.7% 3.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L) 11.7% 3.0
5. Gabriel Arias (R) 11.7% 2.6
6. Cooper Ingle (L) 11.7% 2.0
7. Daniel Schneemann (L) 11.7% 2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L) 11.7% 2.0
9. Steven Kwan (L) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Taj Bradley's full player page → 12
Matthew Boyd⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs BAL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.6% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.9%
vs RHB 11.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.4 BF Expected batters faced 21.4
From recent starts 7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Gunnar Henderson (L) 11.7% 3.0
2. Adley Rutschman (R) 11.7% 3.0
3. Taylor Ward (R) 11.7% 3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R) 11.7% 2.4
5. Coby Mayo (R) 11.7% 2.0
6. Tyler O'Neill (R) 11.7% 2.0
7. Leody Taveras (R) 11.7% 2.0
8. Jeremiah Jackson (R) 11.7% 2.0
9. Blaze Alexander (R) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Matthew Boyd's full player page → 13
Jacob deGrom⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs LAA lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.8%
vs RHB 10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.9 BF Expected batters faced 22.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Zach Neto (R) 14.0% 3.0
2. Denzer Guzman (R) 8.8% 3.0
3. Vaughn Grissom (R) 12.5% 3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R) 11.0% 3.0
5. Oswald Peraza (R) 8.6% 2.9
6. Jo Adell (R) 9.7% 2.0
7. Jose Siri (R) 15.3% 2.0
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R) 9.4% 2.0
9. Josh Lowe (L) 11.1% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Jacob deGrom's full player page → 14
Justin Wrobleski⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs COL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.2% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.7%
vs RHB 8.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.9 BF Expected batters faced 23.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jake McCarthy (L) 13.0% 3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L) 11.8% 3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R) 14.6% 3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L) 10.1% 3.0
5. Troy Johnston (L) 8.2% 3.0
6. Kyle Karros (R) 13.5% 2.9
7. Edouard Julien (L) 16.1% 2.0
8. Brett Sullivan (L) 9.2% 2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R) 11.3% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Justin Wrobleski's full player page → 15
José Soriano⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TEX lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.8%
vs RHB 10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.0 BF Expected batters faced 23.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Joc Pederson (L) 11.7% 3.0
2. Jake Burger (R) 11.7% 3.0
3. Brandon Nimmo (L) 11.7% 3.0
4. Ezequiel Duran (R) 11.7% 3.0
5. Evan Carter (L) 11.7% 3.0
6. Elias Díaz (R) 11.7% 2.0
7. Josh Smith (L) 11.7% 2.0
8. Cam Cauley (R) 11.7% 2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
José Soriano's full player page → 16
Seth Lugo⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs NYM lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.6% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.7%
vs RHB 14.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.2 BF Expected batters faced 23.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.7 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. A.J. Ewing (L) 11.4% 3.0
2. Juan Soto (L) 13.4% 3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R) 11.7% 3.0
4. Francisco Lindor (L) 13.3% 3.0
5. Carson Benge (L) 11.3% 3.0
6. Jared Young (L) 11.2% 2.2
7. Francisco Alvarez (R) 10.9% 2.0
8. Brett Baty (L) 10.2% 2.0
9. Ronny Mauricio (L) 10.3% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Seth Lugo's full player page → 17
Germán Márquez⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs AZ lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 13.4% Runs / BF vs LHB 14.7%
vs RHB 10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 10.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.0 BF Expected batters faced 21.0
From recent starts 7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.8 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 10.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Ketel Marte (L) 11.2% 3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L) 11.8% 3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L) 12.8% 3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R) 12.0% 2.0
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) 8.9% 2.0
6. Ildemaro Vargas (L) 11.3% 2.0
7. Tim Tawa (R) 9.3% 2.0
8. Pavin Smith (L) 9.0% 2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R) 12.1% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Germán Márquez's full player page → 18
Shane Baz⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs CHC lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.4% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.9%
vs RHB 10.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 10.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 25.0 BF Expected batters faced 25.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.9 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) 11.7% 3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R) 11.7% 3.0
3. Seiya Suzuki (R) 11.7% 3.0
4. Carson Kelly (R) 11.7% 3.0
5. Michael Busch (L) 11.7% 3.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R) 11.7% 3.0
7. Ian Happ (L) 11.7% 3.0
8. Dansby Swanson (R) 11.7% 2.0
9. Kevin Alcántara (R) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Shane Baz's full player page → 19
Will Warren⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TB lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.5%
vs RHB 10.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 16.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.6 BF Expected batters faced 23.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.9 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Yandy Díaz (R) 12.0% 3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L) 13.0% 3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R) 14.5% 3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L) 13.2% 3.0
5. Jonny DeLuca (R) 12.1% 3.0
6. Chandler Simpson (L) 11.5% 2.6
7. Nick Fortes (R) 9.9% 2.0
8. Richie Palacios (L) 12.1% 2.0
9. Taylor Walls (L) 15.2% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Will Warren's full player page → 20
Payton Tolle⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs CWS lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.5% Runs / BF vs LHB 13.6%
vs RHB 8.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.5 BF Expected batters faced 23.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.9 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Sam Antonacci (L) 11.7% 3.0
2. Miguel Vargas (R) 11.7% 3.0
3. Kyle Teel (L) 11.7% 3.0
4. Andrew Benintendi (L) 11.7% 3.0
5. Colson Montgomery (L) 11.7% 3.0
6. Braden Montgomery (R) 11.7% 2.5
7. Chase Meidroth (R) 11.7% 2.0
8. Tristan Peters (L) 11.7% 2.0
9. Jacob Gonzalez (L) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Payton Tolle's full player page → 21
Paul Skenes⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs ATL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.9% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.0%
vs RHB 11.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 21.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.3 BF Expected batters faced 23.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.1 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Michael Harris II (L) 12.7% 3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L) 16.1% 3.0
3. Matt Olson (L) 14.0% 3.0
4. Drake Baldwin (L) 14.2% 3.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R) 14.3% 3.0
6. Dominic Smith (L) 12.4% 2.3
7. Austin Riley (R) 10.7% 2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L) 11.3% 2.0
9. Jim Jarvis (L) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Paul Skenes's full player page → 22
Noah Schultz⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs BOS lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 13.5% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.9%
vs RHB 13.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.4 BF Expected batters faced 21.4
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.1 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Anthony Seigler (R) 13.3% 3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R) 12.9% 3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L) 15.0% 3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R) 13.8% 2.4
5. Masataka Yoshida (L) 11.4% 2.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R) 11.5% 2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L) 10.7% 2.0
8. Carlos Narváez (R) 12.6% 2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L) 10.8% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Noah Schultz's full player page → 23
Tatsuya Imai⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs WSH lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 13.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 14.7%
vs RHB 11.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 19.9 BF Expected batters faced 19.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. James Wood (L) 16.3% 3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L) 16.3% 2.9
3. Curtis Mead (R) 12.0% 2.0
4. CJ Abrams (L) 13.9% 2.0
5. Dylan Crews (R) 11.9% 2.0
6. Daylen Lile (L) 13.2% 2.0
7. Jacob Young (R) 10.8% 2.0
8. Drew Millas (L) 11.5% 2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (L) 11.3% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Tatsuya Imai's full player page → 24
Michael Lorenzen⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs LAD lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 13.9% Runs / BF vs LHB 13.6%
vs RHB 13.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 10.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.4 BF Expected batters faced 22.4
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Shohei Ohtani (L) 16.1% 3.0
2. Andy Pages (R) 13.1% 3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L) 13.5% 3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R) 13.8% 3.0
5. Teoscar Hernández (R) 12.5% 2.4
6. Alex Call (R) 12.6% 2.0
7. Miguel Rojas (R) 9.6% 2.0
8. Alex Freeland (L) 11.9% 2.0
9. Eliezer Alfonzo (L) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Michael Lorenzen's full player page → 25
Zac Gallen⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SD lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 15.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 12.1%
vs RHB 16.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 10.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.3 BF Expected batters faced 24.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.8 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) 12.5% 3.0
2. Jake Cronenworth (L) 10.9% 3.0
3. Manny Machado (R) 13.0% 3.0
4. Gavin Sheets (L) 11.5% 3.0
5. Ty France (R) 10.8% 3.0
6. Jackson Merrill (L) 12.6% 3.0
7. Xander Bogaerts (R) 11.7% 2.3
8. Sung-Mun Song (L) 13.2% 2.0
9. Luis Campusano (R) 13.1% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Zac Gallen's full player page → Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Tuesday, July 7, 2026 Andrew Alvarez (WSH) is the top earned runs spot on the Tuesday, July 7, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.6 ER, with Ian Seymour (TB) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Andrew Alvarez Andrew Alvarez (WSH) tops the Tuesday, July 7, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.6 ER vs HOU. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board Ian Seymour (TB) (90) — about 1.9 ER vs NYY. Hurston Waldrep (ATL) (83) — about 2.0 ER vs PIT. Max Meyer (MIA) (78) — about 2.1 ER vs SEA. Trevor McDonald (SF) (77) — about 2.2 ER vs TOR. Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) (75) — about 2.2 ER vs STL. How to read the earned runs board Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Frequently asked questions
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Tuesday, July 7, 2026)? Andrew Alvarez (WSH) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.6 ER against HOU.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today? The top projected starts on Tuesday, July 7, 2026: Andrew Alvarez (~1.6 ER), Ian Seymour (~1.9 ER), Hurston Waldrep (~2.0 ER), Max Meyer (~2.1 ER), Trevor McDonald (~2.2 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated? Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS? Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks. What the earned runs allowed board is The Earned Runs board projects how many earned runs a starter gives up vs his line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
His run-prevention rate vs the lineup's hand. The park. Projected length of outing. Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here? Efficiently priced — transparency board. It's also a core input to our team run model (moneyline + team totals), where the edge actually lives.
How to use it Read it for who's in line for a clean or rough outing; the bettable version is the team-total board it feeds.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays
