Best MLB hits allowed matchups — Friday, July 17, 2026 Every starting pitcher on the Friday, July 17, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Tap any card for the full breakdown.
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PROJ Some lineups aren't official yet — 3 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
# Pitcher · Matchup Score
1
Spencer Miles
RHP vs CWS lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.8% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.7%
vs RHB 21.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.7%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 12.8 BF Expected batters faced 12.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.8 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Sam Antonacci (L) 24.0% 2.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L) 21.6% 2.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R) 21.1% 2.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L) 20.6% 1.8
5. Andrew Benintendi (L) 21.8% 1.0
6. Kyle Teel (L) 22.7% 1.0
7. Braden Montgomery (L) 21.6% 1.0
8. Tristan Peters (L) 27.1% 1.0
9. Chase Meidroth (R) 21.6% 1.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5 we lean Under Book Over Under FAN Fanatics +125 -180
We project 2.8 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Spencer Miles's full player page → 2
Mason Englert
RHP vs BOS lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 23.1% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.1%
vs RHB 23.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 16.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 14.8 BF Expected batters faced 14.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.4 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Anthony Seigler (L) 20.6% 2.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R) 24.6% 2.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L) 21.1% 2.0
4. Willson Contreras (R) 22.5% 2.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L) 24.9% 2.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R) 22.1% 1.8
7. Jarren Duran (L) 22.3% 1.0
8. Connor Wong (R) 20.9% 1.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L) 23.2% 1.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5 we lean Under Book Over Under BOV Bovada +115 -155
DK DraftKings +117 -156
We project 3.4 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Mason Englert's full player page → 3
Cal Quantrill
RHP vs ATL lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 23.4% Hits / BF vs LHB 23.6%
vs RHB 23.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 9.4%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 15.6 BF Expected batters faced 15.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.8 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 23.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Drake Baldwin (L) 23.1% 2.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L) 20.9% 2.0
3. Matt Olson (L) 22.1% 2.0
4. Michael Harris II (L) 25.6% 2.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R) 23.3% 2.0
6. Dominic Smith (L) 23.3% 2.0
7. Austin Riley (R) 21.6% 1.6
8. Jim Jarvis (L) 24.1% 1.0
9. Brewer Hicklen (R) 23.4% 1.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5 we lean Under Book Over Under BOV Bovada +110 -150
DK DraftKings +113 -151
We project 3.8 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Cal Quantrill's full player page → 4
Jared Jones
RHP vs CLE lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 20.6% Hits / BF vs LHB 21.6%
vs RHB 21.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 19.4 BF Expected batters faced 19.4
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.0 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Travis Bazzana (L) 21.9% 3.0
2. Brayan Rocchio (L) 23.6% 2.4
3. Chase DeLauter (L) 22.5% 2.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L) 20.6% 2.0
5. Rhys Hoskins (R) 19.9% 2.0
6. Kahlil Watson (L) 21.9% 2.0
7. Gabriel Arias (R) 22.6% 2.0
8. Austin Hedges (R) 20.3% 2.0
9. Steven Kwan (L) 23.1% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM +110 -150
BOV Bovada +130 -170
DK DraftKings +127 -169
FAN Fanatics +110 -155
We project 4.0 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Jared Jones's full player page → 5
Eduardo Rivera
LHP vs TB lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.5% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.5%
vs RHB 22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 18.6 BF Expected batters faced 18.6
From recent starts 2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.2 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Yandy Díaz (R) 24.5% 2.6
2. Jonathan Aranda (L) 22.5% 2.0
3. Junior Caminero (R) 24.0% 2.0
4. Ryan Vilade (R) 21.9% 2.0
5. Cedric Mullins (L) 21.8% 2.0
6. Jonny DeLuca (R) 22.5% 2.0
7. Ben Williamson (R) 22.6% 2.0
8. Hunter Feduccia (L) 20.1% 2.0
9. Taylor Walls (R) 20.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Eduardo Rivera's full player page → 6
Logan Henderson
RHP vs MIA lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 20.1% Hits / BF vs LHB 20.7%
vs RHB 21.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 18.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.0 BF Expected batters faced 20.0
From recent starts 6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.4 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 23.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Liam Hicks (L) 24.4% 3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R) 26.3% 3.0
3. Xavier Edwards (L) 25.2% 2.0
4. Kyle Stowers (L) 23.5% 2.0
5. Heriberto Hernández (R) 22.6% 2.0
6. Griffin Conine (L) 22.8% 2.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L) 21.3% 2.0
8. Joe Mack (L) 22.5% 2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R) 22.6% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM +100 -135
FAN Fanatics +115 -165
We project 4.4 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Logan Henderson's full player page → 7
Peter Lambert
RHP vs BAL lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 20.7% Hits / BF vs LHB 17.6%
vs RHB 25.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.6%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.2 BF Expected batters faced 23.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.4 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Gunnar Henderson (L) 23.2% 3.0
2. Adley Rutschman (L) 21.3% 3.0
3. Taylor Ward (R) 21.2% 3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R) 22.6% 3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L) 21.6% 3.0
6. Dylan Beavers (L) 21.9% 2.2
7. Colton Cowser (L) 20.5% 2.0
8. Coby Mayo (R) 16.6% 2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L) 22.2% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5 we lean Under Book Over Under BOV Bovada -120 -120
DK DraftKings -115 -115
FAN Fanatics -130 -110
We project 4.4 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Peter Lambert's full player page → 8
Griffin Jax
RHP vs BOS lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 20.8% Hits / BF vs LHB 21.7%
vs RHB 20.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.7 BF Expected batters faced 20.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.4 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Anthony Seigler (L) 20.6% 3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R) 24.6% 3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L) 21.1% 2.7
4. Caleb Durbin (R) 22.1% 2.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L) 24.9% 2.0
6. Romy Gonzalez (R) 23.2% 2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L) 22.3% 2.0
8. Carlos Narváez (R) 20.5% 2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L) 23.2% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Griffin Jax's full player page → 9
Troy Melton
RHP vs LAA lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 19.2% Hits / BF vs LHB 19.6%
vs RHB 20.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.6%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.5 BF Expected batters faced 23.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.5 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Zach Neto (R) 21.2% 3.0
2. Mike Trout (R) 21.0% 3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L) 24.4% 3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R) 20.4% 3.0
5. Josh Lowe (L) 21.6% 3.0
6. Jo Adell (R) 20.4% 2.5
7. Vaughn Grissom (R) 22.5% 2.0
8. Denzer Guzman (R) 23.9% 2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R) 19.4% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -105 -125
BOV Bovada -125 -115
DK DraftKings -120 -110
We project 4.5 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Troy Melton's full player page → 10
Roki Sasaki
RHP vs NYY lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.2% Hits / BF vs LHB 21.0%
vs RHB 23.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.7%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.8 BF Expected batters faced 21.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.6 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trent Grisham (L) 21.6% 3.0
2. Ben Rice (L) 22.7% 3.0
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R) 21.8% 3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L) 22.8% 2.8
5. Jasson Domínguez (L) 23.4% 2.0
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 21.6% 2.0
7. José Caballero (R) 22.5% 2.0
8. Ryan McMahon (L) 20.5% 2.0
9. Austin Wells (L) 20.1% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5 we lean Over Book Over Under BOV Bovada +115 -155
DK DraftKings +115 -152
We project 4.6 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Roki Sasaki's full player page → 11
Gabriel Hughes
RHP vs CIN lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.5% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.5%
vs RHB 22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.8 BF Expected batters faced 20.8
From recent starts 2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.6 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Elly De La Cruz (L) 23.4% 3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R) 22.2% 3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L) 21.0% 2.8
4. Spencer Steer (R) 21.6% 2.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R) 23.2% 2.0
6. Tyler Stephenson (R) 23.1% 2.0
7. TJ Friedl (L) 22.5% 2.0
8. Edwin Arroyo (L) 22.5% 2.0
9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R) 21.0% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5 we lean Under Book Over Under BOV Bovada -120 -120
DK DraftKings -115 -116
We project 4.6 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Gabriel Hughes's full player page → 12
Landen Roupp
RHP vs SEA lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.0% Hits / BF vs LHB 20.6%
vs RHB 22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.5%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.3 BF Expected batters faced 23.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.8 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. J.P. Crawford (L) 21.8% 3.0
2. Randy Arozarena (R) 21.9% 3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L) 23.4% 3.0
4. Cal Raleigh (L) 19.6% 3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L) 22.3% 3.0
6. Cole Young (L) 21.7% 2.3
7. Luke Raley (L) 22.5% 2.0
8. Victor Robles (R) 23.3% 2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L) 20.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -110 -120
BOV Bovada -130 -110
DK DraftKings -123 -108
FAN Fanatics -115 -125
We project 4.8 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Landen Roupp's full player page → 13
Gavin Williams
RHP vs PIT lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 20.2% Hits / BF vs LHB 18.0%
vs RHB 23.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.9 BF Expected batters faced 22.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.8 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 23.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jake Mangum (L) 26.2% 3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L) 23.1% 3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L) 22.1% 3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R) 23.4% 3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L) 24.2% 2.9
6. Nick Gonzales (R) 25.5% 2.0
7. Marcell Ozuna (R) 21.9% 2.0
8. Jacob Gonzalez (L) 22.5% 2.0
9. Henry Davis (R) 18.6% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5 we lean Under Book Over Under BOV Bovada +110 -150
DK DraftKings +113 -150
We project 4.8 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Gavin Williams's full player page → 14
Bryce Miller
RHP vs SF lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.0% Hits / BF vs LHB 21.6%
vs RHB 20.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.5%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.8 BF Expected batters faced 21.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.8 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 23.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Luis Arraez (L) 26.4% 3.0
2. Bryce Eldridge (L) 21.0% 3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R) 23.8% 3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L) 22.9% 2.8
5. Heliot Ramos (R) 22.9% 2.0
6. Jung Hoo Lee (L) 24.1% 2.0
7. Willy Adames (R) 21.9% 2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L) 22.9% 2.0
9. Drew Cavanaugh (L) 21.4% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -105 -125
BOV Bovada -110 -130
DK DraftKings -105 -126
We project 4.8 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Bryce Miller's full player page → 15
Anthony Kay
LHP vs TOR lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.3% Hits / BF vs LHB 20.5%
vs RHB 22.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 8.7%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.5 BF Expected batters faced 21.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.8 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Ernie Clement (R) 24.8% 3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R) 23.7% 3.0
3. Kazuma Okamoto (R) 22.6% 3.0
4. George Springer (R) 21.4% 2.5
5. Alejandro Kirk (R) 23.2% 2.0
6. Daulton Varsho (L) 23.4% 2.0
7. Brandon Valenzuela (R) 21.4% 2.0
8. Luis Urías (R) 21.2% 2.0
9. Myles Straw (R) 22.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM +110 -150
BOV Bovada +120 -160
DK DraftKings +120 -160
We project 4.8 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Anthony Kay's full player page → 16
Michael King
RHP vs KC lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 19.7% Hits / BF vs LHB 19.7%
vs RHB 20.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.6%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.0 BF Expected batters faced 24.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.8 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Carter Jensen (L) 20.8% 3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R) 24.6% 3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L) 21.7% 3.0
4. Lane Thomas (R) 20.3% 3.0
5. Vinnie Pasquantino (L) 23.6% 3.0
6. Salvador Perez (R) 21.5% 3.0
7. Michael Massey (L) 23.4% 2.0
8. Nick Loftin (R) 22.5% 2.0
9. Isaac Collins (L) 23.2% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM +115 -155
BOV Bovada +105 -145
DK DraftKings +106 -140
FAN Fanatics -105 -135
We project 4.8 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Michael King's full player page → 17
Dean Kremer
RHP vs HOU lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.8% Hits / BF vs LHB 23.6%
vs RHB 21.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.1 BF Expected batters faced 22.1
From recent starts 4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.9 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jeremy Peña (R) 24.3% 3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L) 24.6% 3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R) 21.2% 3.0
4. Christian Walker (R) 21.7% 3.0
5. Jose Altuve (R) 22.7% 2.1
6. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L) 19.4% 2.0
7. Cam Smith (R) 21.6% 2.0
8. Lucas Spence (L) 22.5% 2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R) 22.3% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5 we lean Over Book Over Under BOV Bovada -155 +115
DK DraftKings -153 +115
We project 4.9 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Dean Kremer's full player page → 18
Gerrit Cole
RHP vs LAD lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.9% Hits / BF vs LHB 20.6%
vs RHB 23.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.1 BF Expected batters faced 23.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.0 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Shohei Ohtani (L) 23.0% 3.0
2. Andy Pages (R) 22.4% 3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L) 25.4% 3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R) 22.4% 3.0
5. Max Muncy (L) 21.4% 3.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L) 21.8% 2.1
7. Teoscar Hernández (R) 21.2% 2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L) 21.7% 2.0
9. Tommy Edman (L) 21.6% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5 we lean Over Book Over Under BOV Bovada -160 +120
DK DraftKings -158 +119
We project 5.0 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Gerrit Cole's full player page → 19
Michael McGreevy⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs AZ lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.7% Hits / BF vs LHB 24.2%
vs RHB 21.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.0 BF Expected batters faced 23.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.1 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Ketel Marte (L) 22.1% 3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L) 21.6% 3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L) 20.3% 3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R) 25.5% 3.0
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) 21.6% 3.0
6. Ildemaro Vargas (L) 21.8% 2.0
7. Nolan Arenado (R) 21.8% 2.0
8. Tim Tawa (R) 20.7% 2.0
9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R) 21.2% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -140 +105
BOV Bovada -130 -110
DK DraftKings -123 -108
We project 5.1 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Michael McGreevy's full player page → 20
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 23.7% Hits / BF vs LHB 24.3%
vs RHB 21.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.2%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.4 BF Expected batters faced 22.4
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.1 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) 23.8% 3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L) 23.4% 3.0
3. Xander Bogaerts (R) 21.7% 3.0
4. Manny Machado (R) 23.6% 3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L) 21.1% 2.4
6. Ty France (R) 22.5% 2.0
7. Jake Cronenworth (L) 21.4% 2.0
8. Miguel Andujar (R) 22.5% 2.0
9. Luis Campusano (R) 22.4% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -155 +115
BOV Bovada -155 +115
DK DraftKings -156 +117
We project 5.1 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Seth Lugo's full player page → 21
Bailey Ober
RHP vs CHC lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.1% Hits / BF vs LHB 21.7%
vs RHB 22.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.2%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.5 BF Expected batters faced 23.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.2 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) 24.1% 3.0
2. Seiya Suzuki (R) 22.1% 3.0
3. Michael Busch (L) 21.0% 3.0
4. Alex Bregman (R) 23.1% 3.0
5. Ian Happ (L) 21.5% 3.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R) 22.2% 2.5
7. Michael Conforto (L) 22.5% 2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R) 21.4% 2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R) 21.0% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5 we lean Under Book Over Under BOV Bovada -105 -135
DK DraftKings -102 -131
FAN Fanatics +110 -155
We project 5.2 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Bailey Ober's full player page → 22
Reid Detmers⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs DET lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 23.0% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.5%
vs RHB 22.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 18.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.3 BF Expected batters faced 23.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.2 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Kevin McGonigle (L) 24.4% 3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R) 24.0% 3.0
3. Colt Keith (L) 21.7% 3.0
4. Riley Greene (L) 21.2% 3.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R) 22.2% 3.0
6. Kerry Carpenter (L) 20.7% 2.3
7. Zach McKinstry (L) 20.8% 2.0
8. Matt Vierling (R) 23.5% 2.0
9. James Outman (L) 21.2% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -145 +105
BOV Bovada -150 +110
DK DraftKings -150 +113
FAN Fanatics -140 +100
We project 5.2 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Reid Detmers's full player page → 23
Cade Cavalli
RHP vs ATH lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 24.0% Hits / BF vs LHB 23.5%
vs RHB 23.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.4%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.3 BF Expected batters faced 21.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.2 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 23.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Carlos Cortes (L) 24.3% 3.0
2. Jacob Wilson (R) 25.6% 3.0
3. Tyler Soderstrom (L) 22.5% 3.0
4. Shea Langeliers (R) 21.3% 2.3
5. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R) 26.4% 2.0
6. Lawrence Butler (L) 21.7% 2.0
7. Donovan Walton (L) 23.9% 2.0
8. Henry Bolte (R) 21.2% 2.0
9. Tommy White (R) 22.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -125 -105
BOV Bovada -110 -130
DK DraftKings -107 -124
We project 5.2 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Cade Cavalli's full player page → 24
Chris Sale
LHP vs TEX lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.9% Hits / BF vs LHB 20.0%
vs RHB 22.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 19.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.3 BF Expected batters faced 23.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.3 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 23.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Justin Foscue (R) 22.9% 3.0
2. Wyatt Langford (R) 21.7% 3.0
3. Brandon Nimmo (L) 24.2% 3.0
4. Josh Jung (R) 24.6% 3.0
5. Jake Burger (R) 23.1% 3.0
6. Ezequiel Duran (R) 22.9% 2.3
7. Cam Cauley (R) 22.5% 2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R) 21.5% 2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L) 23.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5 we lean Over Book Over Under BOV Bovada -150 +110
DK DraftKings -148 +112
FAN Fanatics -140 +100
We project 5.3 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Chris Sale's full player page → 25
Gage Jump⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs WSH lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 23.8% Hits / BF vs LHB 23.2%
vs RHB 23.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.5%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.5 BF Expected batters faced 22.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.3 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. James Wood (L) 24.6% 3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L) 21.4% 3.0
3. Abimelec Ortiz (L) 22.5% 3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L) 22.8% 3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R) 22.7% 2.5
6. Daylen Lile (L) 22.4% 2.0
7. José Tena (L) 22.5% 2.0
8. Jorbit Vivas (L) 22.6% 2.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (R) 24.3% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -125 -105
BOV Bovada -115 -125
DK DraftKings -109 -122
FAN Fanatics -130 -110
We project 5.3 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Gage Jump's full player page → 26
Jake Bennett
LHP vs TB lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.5% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.5%
vs RHB 22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.8 BF Expected batters faced 22.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.2 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Yandy Díaz (R) 24.5% 3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L) 22.5% 3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R) 24.0% 3.0
4. Ryan Vilade (R) 21.9% 3.0
5. Jonny DeLuca (R) 22.5% 2.8
6. Chandler Simpson (L) 23.9% 2.0
7. Ben Williamson (R) 22.6% 2.0
8. Taylor Walls (R) 20.5% 2.0
9. Nick Fortes (R) 21.8% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Jake Bennett's full player page → 27
Brady Singer
RHP vs COL lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.6% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.9%
vs RHB 21.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 11.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.2 BF Expected batters faced 23.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.4 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 23.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jake McCarthy (L) 24.2% 3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L) 24.5% 3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R) 23.6% 3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L) 25.4% 3.0
5. Kyle Karros (R) 22.6% 3.0
6. Willi Castro (L) 22.5% 2.2
7. Troy Johnston (L) 24.4% 2.0
8. Tyler Freeman (R) 23.1% 2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R) 21.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 6.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM +105 -145
BOV Bovada +120 -160
DK DraftKings +120 -160
FAN Fanatics +105 -150
We project 5.4 H vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Brady Singer's full player page → 28
Merrill Kelly
RHP vs STL lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.6% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.0%
vs RHB 23.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.6%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.8 BF Expected batters faced 24.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.4 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. JJ Wetherholt (L) 21.4% 3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R) 22.5% 3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L) 24.4% 3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R) 23.3% 3.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L) 22.0% 3.0
6. Masyn Winn (R) 22.0% 3.0
7. Nathan Church (L) 20.2% 2.8
8. José Fermín (R) 21.0% 2.0
9. Jimmy Crooks (L) 19.0% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -130 -105
BOV Bovada -140 +100
DK DraftKings -137 +103
FAN Fanatics -150 +105
We project 5.4 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Merrill Kelly's full player page → 29
Colin Rea
RHP vs MIN lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 24.2% Hits / BF vs LHB 24.9%
vs RHB 22.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.9 BF Expected batters faced 22.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.5 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trevor Larnach (L) 23.3% 3.0
2. Ryan Jeffers (R) 21.9% 3.0
3. Josh Bell (L) 22.4% 3.0
4. Kody Clemens (L) 21.7% 3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R) 22.2% 2.9
6. Brooks Lee (L) 21.0% 2.0
7. Alan Roden (L) 20.3% 2.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R) 24.8% 2.0
9. Tristan Gray (L) 22.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5 we lean Under Book Over Under BOV Bovada -115 -125
DK DraftKings -109 -121
We project 5.5 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Colin Rea's full player page → 30
Sandy Alcantara
RHP vs MIL lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.1% Hits / BF vs LHB 21.1%
vs RHB 23.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.5%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 26.3 BF Expected batters faced 26.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.9 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Christian Yelich (L) 21.6% 3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R) 23.7% 3.0
3. Brice Turang (L) 24.4% 3.0
4. William Contreras (R) 23.2% 3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L) 21.0% 3.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L) 23.4% 3.0
7. Cooper Pratt (R) 23.9% 3.0
8. Sal Frelick (L) 22.4% 3.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R) 21.4% 2.3
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 6.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM +120 -160
BOV Bovada +115 -155
DK DraftKings +117 -156
We project 5.9 H vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Sandy Alcantara's full player page → Best MLB Hits Allowed Matchups — Friday, July 17, 2026 Spencer Miles (TOR) is the top hits allowed spot on the Friday, July 17, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 2.8 H, with Mason Englert (TB) right behind. Every starter is ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Spencer Miles Spencer Miles (TOR) tops the Friday, July 17, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 2.8 H vs CWS. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board Mason Englert (TB) (82) — about 3.4 H vs BOS. Cal Quantrill (TEX) (70) — about 3.8 H vs ATL. Jared Jones (PIT) (61) — about 4.0 H vs CLE. Eduardo Rivera (BOS) (57) — about 4.2 H vs TB. Logan Henderson (MIL) (50) — about 4.4 H vs MIA. How it played out The top 10 starts averaged 8.0 H. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the hits allowed board Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a hits allowed count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Frequently asked questions
Which pitcher has the best hits allowed matchup today (Friday, July 17, 2026)? Spencer Miles (TOR) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 2.8 H against CWS.
What are the best pitcher hits allowed props today? The top projected starts on Friday, July 17, 2026: Spencer Miles (~2.8 H), Mason Englert (~3.4 H), Cal Quantrill (~3.8 H), Jared Jones (~4.0 H), Eduardo Rivera (~4.2 H). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the hits allowed score calculated? Ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected hits allowed count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS? Yes — the board surfaces the best hits allowed spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks. What the hits allowed board is The Hits Allowed board projects the contact a starter is likely to surrender. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
His hit-suppression vs this lineup. The park. Projected batters faced. Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here? Graded transparency — the market prices it well. A sharp projection, no posted edge.
How to use it Context on a starter's contact profile; research, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays
