Last scored matchup
Jared isn't on today's slate. He was last scored 10 days ago, away at Detroit Tigers on Sunday, September 27, 2026, where he landed on strikeouts (91.2/100), fantasy points (76/100), outs recorded (74.6/100). This page refreshes with new projections as soon as he's back in a lineup.
Season line
21 starts, 5-6, 3.72 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 101.2 innings. He's struck out 123 over that span, against 31 walks. This is the baseline the matchup adjusts from — the model starts here and then asks what the specific lineup he's facing does to strikeout arms, how the park plays, and how deep he's likely to go.
He throws right-handed
Jared throws right-handed, which is the ordinary case and means fewer wild swings in the lineup he faces. Opposing managers aren't restacking against him the way they would a left-hander, so his projection moves more on the quality of the lineup than on its handedness. What does move it: how deep he's been going lately, and whether the lineup in front of him strikes out.
His last 5 starts
Jared has 40 strikeouts in 29.0 innings across his last 5 starts, a 12.4 K/9, with a 0.93 ERA over that stretch and 4 walks. Strikeouts are the one pitcher market where our model has found real, graded room — projected workload and the specific lineup he draws move that number more than a season-long rate does. Start-by-start detail is in the log below.
Strikeouts and control
Jared has 123 strikeouts and 31 walks in 101.7 innings this season — 10.9 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9, a 4.0-to-1 ratio. That's around league-typical control — enough to work deep when the lineup cooperates, not enough to bail him out of a bad matchup.
What his floor looks like
Jared has made 21 starts this season, averaging 4.8 innings with a 3.72 ERA across them. In the 12 starts we hold detailed lines for, he got through five or more innings 7 times. That ratio is the honest read on his floor, and it's what separates an arm worth projecting on the outs board from one whose good starts are unpredictable enough that the market prices them better than we do.
How long he goes
Jared is averaging 5.3 innings a start across his last 8 outings, with a high of 7.0 and about 84 pitches a night. He's not going deep, and that caps the strikeout and outs projections no matter how good the matchup looks — you can't strike out hitters you don't face. Expected batters faced is one of the bigger inputs to his score for exactly this reason.
His best start in the log
Jared's high-water mark was Tuesday, September 22, 2026 against STL: 9 strikeouts over 7.0 innings, 0 earned runs. One start doesn't set a projection — the model works off the blend of his recent work against the specific lineup in front of him — but it does show the ceiling when the matchup lines up.
Where he lands across our boards
Jared was scored on 6 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: strikeouts graded 91.2/100 while walks allowed came in at 37.5/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.
How the model reads him
Every arm on the slate goes through the same math, Jared included. Opposing lineup, handedness, expected batters faced, park, weather — weighted, combined, and normalized 0–100. We keep the weighting to ourselves and re-tune it weekly on real results. What we don't keep is the record: every projection here is graded against the box score at the line the market offered.
What we'd flag
Three caveats worth carrying. Not every player gets a posted line — book coverage runs to about 87% for confirmed starters, so a blank line is the market's silence, not ours. Lineup changes land late enough to strand a projection published hours earlier. And judging any of this on a single night is meaningless; the model is tuned on hundreds of settled outcomes.